Monetary Policy: Not Likely To Raise Interest Rates In The Second Half Of This Year
Along with the reduction of inflation pressure, the trend of monetary policy has also become subtle. "China's macroeconomic and financial outlook for the second half of 2010" has recently been released by the Jin Jin Research Center, which points out that the monetary policy is expected to remain basically stable in the second half of the year, and will increase flexibility and pertinence if the overall keynote does not change significantly.
Bank of Jin Research Center believes that, on the one hand, housing
volume
On the other hand, the steady progress of construction projects, the expansion of indemnificatory housing construction, the increase of investment in western development, and the support and encouragement of private investment will promote the growth of loan demand. It is also possible that new loans will exceed the target value or even reach 8 trillion.
In the first half of 2010,
currency
Policy from moderately relaxed to steady, and achieved remarkable results.
Bank of Jin Research Center
It is believed that in the second half of this year, under the complex situation of slowing economic growth, low inflation risk and uncertain economic growth in the world, it is expected that monetary policy will remain basically stable and there will be no obvious change in the overall tone, but it will enhance flexibility and pertinence.
The second half will rely more on the flexible operation of the open market to regulate liquidity.
The statutory reserve requirement rate remains basically stable, and there is little possibility of adjusting the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans.
The focus of exchange rate policy is to reduce dependence on the US dollar and expand the fluctuation range, but we can not exclude the possibility of RMB's phasic devaluation.
Credit window guidance pays more attention to optimizing structure and preventing risks, and credit control can be partial or moderately relaxed.
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