Home >

Central Bank Report: China'S Economy Is Unlikely To Bottom Out For The Two Time.

2010/7/28 9:54:00 71

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

The 27 quarter of 2010 released by the people's Bank of China in the two quarter of the year

Macro economy

The situation analysis report pointed out that the possibility of economic slowdown in the future is more stable, but there is little possibility of a two dip.

The report points out that although the current economic growth shows some signs of slowing down, the fundamentals of China's economy are still good.

At present, the slowdown in economic growth is the reason why the early growth is too fast. It has the base number. It is also the result of macro policy regulation that restrains the excessive rise in house prices, constrains the expansion of local debts and manages inflation expectations, and is conducive to the adjustment of the national economic structure and the sustainable economic growth.

The report points out that in the two quarter, the national economy is moving towards the direction of macro regulation and control, and the fundamentals will further improve.

We are cautiously optimistic about the trend of China's economic development.

In the coming period, the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies will be maintained, the flexibility and pertinence of macroeconomic regulation and control will be enhanced, and the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations will be well handled.

According to the report, Europe

sovereign debt

The crisis has made the external environment of China's economic growth more complicated.

The European Union is China's largest trading partner. In the short term, the European debt crisis has reduced China's demand, reduced orders and increased cost pressures.

However, considering the fact that China's export elasticity is relatively small, its dependence on foreign trade has decreased significantly since last year. Even if exports to the EU decline in the coming period, it may be offset by the recovery of demand from other economies. The European debt crisis is unlikely to have a major impact on China's economy as a whole.

In terms of credit, the report thinks that the overall demand for credit will gradually slow down in the future.

If the growth rate of RMB loans in 2010 will remain at 18.2% level in June, the new RMB loans will not exceed 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan in 2010.

At present, the credit structure is further improved, the growth rate of loans to SMEs is higher than that of large enterprises, and the problem of loans to SMEs is alleviated to a certain extent. The growth of loans in the central and western regions is higher than that in the eastern region. The imbalance of credit resources between the economically backward areas and the developed areas has continued to improve. The growth rate of real estate loans has slowed down, and the growth rate of home loans has declined for two consecutive months, and the real estate control measures have achieved initial success.

The report pointed out that the people's Bank of China announced in June 19th that it should further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and not make a one-off revaluation of the RMB exchange rate. It is important to adhere to the market supply and demand and adjust it with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

Further promoting the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is a major move to continue to improve the managed floating exchange rate system, and is more conducive to maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, promoting the basic balance of international payments and the stability of the financial market.

The report points out that

Prices go up.

The pressure has slowed down, the future price tail factor has been reduced, and the possibility of price rise remains vigilant.

In the first half of this year, CPI rose by 2.6% over the same period last year, 3.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

But in June, CPI rose 2.9% over the same period, 0.2 percentage points lower than last month; the ring fell 0.6%, and the price upward pressure slowed.

Upstream PPI, CGPI (enterprise commodity prices) also fell, which is conducive to the stability of downstream prices, and the pressure of rising prices has eased slightly.