Ren Zhiqiang: Housing Prices Are Not Real High.

China's housing price is not speculate in real estate People fry high, but demand The result of the drive. At the 2010 China real estate forum, the president of Huayuan Group, known as "cannon", Huayuan Ren Zhiqiang, chairman of real estate [6.88 -0.72%], once again threw out "Lei Ren" view.

The proportion of two housing units is not high.

Ren Zhiqiang said, we all think that the people who fry the house have high prices in China. From the data analysis, the proportion of second apartments in 2005 is 8.8%. From 2005 to 2008, we only grow 0.9% in the four years, the whole proportion is 9.5%, part of which is used for rent, part of it is used for casual living, and the real idle is only 19%, and then multiplied by 5%, only less than two points are fried houses. In casual residence, low income families have the lowest rate of casual living, while the proportion of renting residents is the highest, while high income families are the opposite. This situation shows that not the people who fry the house have high prices in China.

At the same time, overall, the total number of second housing units is not very high. It is not only because of rich people, but also in different income families.

Then, what factors affect housing prices? Ren Zhiqiang believes that one is the division speed of families, the two is the urbanization rate, the three is the production of houses, and the population problems and land structure problems will also affect housing prices.

The supply of existing housing is in short supply.

Ren Zhiqiang believes that the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid increase of urban population and the rapid division of family speed make the existing housing area unable to meet the demand.

Ren Zhiqiang said that according to a famous American geographer, the rate of urbanization is more than 30%, which is an accelerated growth. The average rate of urbanization in the world is more than 49%, while the rate of urbanization in China is only 46%, and at least 10%.

The accelerated split of families and the high population of young adults make housing demand grow rapidly. Ren Zhiqiang said that the number of small families will increase significantly, while the number of households in large families will be greatly reduced, so that the demand for housing will grow dramatically. It is predicted that by 2030, the total number of Chinese population may reach 1 billion 460 million, and the demographic dividend will not be transformed until 2020. The real estate market may still be ten to twenty years old.

Housing production is the root cause of rising housing prices. Ren Zhiqiang said, from the urbanized population structure of China, we can see that now the city has six hundred million or seven hundred million people, two hundred million or three hundred million families, and we can only produce less than 5 million houses. Such a supply and demand relationship means that only 2% of people can buy housing. And the multiplied growth of housing production just shows that marketization has enabled everyone to have a house to live in, rather than say that marketization makes everyone do not have a house to live in.

　　 housing Ideas need to be changed.

Ren Zhiqiang said, from the housing situation, our country has so far averaged an average of more than 80 square meters, indicating that our pace of development has a fairly long cycle. The reason is that when we were young, we did not have the ability to end up spending at all. The conversion process from small houses to large houses could relieve the pressure of buying houses, and gradually replacing them did not affect our consumption.

However, the new deal has broken the rules of housing consumption. Ren Zhiqiang said that in the "new ten countries", especially for the two housing restrictions, it broke the process of developing from small to large, from old to new. This is precisely the fact that all countries in the world have gone through such a process.

Ren Zhiqiang pointed out that our current situation is that the proportion of housing ownership has been very high, not without housing, but we have a high proportion of two generations and three generations under the same roof. Therefore, China's housing problem is partly a question of Chinese people's housing concept.