In August, Domestic Cotton Prices Will Be Mainly Stable.
Central reserve
cotton
The latest report of China Cotton Market Monthly released by the Information Center Research Office believes that if the weather is normal, the domestic cotton prices will be mainly stable in August.
In addition, cotton prices coming near new cotton will gradually fall and integrate with the new year, the first half of the new year.
Cotton price
The probability of running in the range of 16500-17500 yuan / ton is large.
"China Cotton Market Monthly" believes that a large number of new cotton picking will be in mid 9 months, a large number of listing time may be in mid 10 months.
As of August 5th, the total amount of warehouse receipts in the Zhengzhou futures market was only more than 5000 tons, matching the market warehouse receipts about 35 thousand tons, and the national cotton market.
Monitor
The statistical data of cotton storage and purchase in the system purchase and sale enterprise is 180 thousand tons, totaling 220 thousand tons.
Plus two months cotton imports are estimated at 300 thousand tons, totaling 520 thousand tons.
According to rough statistics, commercial inventories are about 300 thousand tons, and the total supply is about 800 thousand tons.
Even if a certain amount of new cotton was listed in September and some industrial enterprises of textile enterprises were relatively adequate, the overall supply remained tight.
In addition, the market supply is obviously insufficient during the annual pition period. In order to make the new and old year smooth pition, the state reserve cotton will shoulder the important task of ensuring supply and maintaining the smooth operation of cotton market.
Since August 10th, the state has put 600 thousand tons of cotton reserves into the market, of which the quality of Xinjiang cotton accounts for a considerable proportion, and the starting price of the auction is 16500 yuan / ton.
According to the selling rhythm of 15 thousand tons of daily cotton sold in the first two days, 600 thousand tons will be thrown out nearly two months, that is to say, it will last until mid late 10.
During the interannual period, the cotton market in China showed three patterns, namely, reserve cotton, domestic cotton and outer cotton, and three supply channels.
"China Cotton Market Monthly" believes that, at present, the number of domestic commercial cotton is limited, and high-grade cotton is even more scarce. The quality of new flowers just listed is not high. It is difficult for foreign cotton to arrive in China before October, and it is difficult to guarantee the normal cotton blending of textile enterprises.
The cost of national cotton is relatively high, and the bid price of 16500 yuan / ton is obviously lower than the current market price.
Therefore, the national cotton reserves will become the main supply channel in the new and old year alternation period.
In order to prevent excessive speculation, the relevant departments made strict regulations on the paction qualification and auction quantity and progress of textile enterprises before they were put into operation.
Nevertheless, the enthusiasm of the textile enterprises is still high. The average price of the 328 grade cotton reached 18450 yuan / ton in the first two days of the auction, much higher than the 16500 yuan / ton auction price.
However, if the weather is normal, as the new cotton market is approaching, the paction price will gradually decrease.
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