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Textile And Garment Industry: Three, Fourth Quarter Export Growth Will Slow Down

2010/8/18 17:01:00 45

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1 - July

Spinning and clothing export

The amount has increased considerably under the impetus of rising demand and price increase, which is still in line with our expectations.

In the first 7 months, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 109 billion 666 million US dollars, up 22.99% over the same period last year.

Among them, the total export volume of textiles was 42 billion 839 million US dollars, the total export volume of clothing was 66 billion 827 million US dollars, the growth rate was 32.75% and 17.45% respectively, and the export amount continued to maintain a larger growth under the impetus of demand recovery and price increase, which accords with our judgement on export growth.

Textile exports continued to grow faster than clothing, and the global textile industry continued to recover.

At present, the growth rate of textile exports is faster than the growth rate of clothing. This situation has lasted for 10 months, and textile exports in the first 7 months of 2010 reached US $42 billion 800 million, more than the same level in 08 years (38 billion 700 million US dollars in the same period of 08 years).

This shows that with the improvement of the American economic situation, the global textile industry continues to recover.

In the second half of the year, exports will continue to grow in the three quarter and fourth quarter, but the growth rate will decrease.

Textile and clothing at present

Export-oriented

The company's production orders have all been in the three quarter, so the export growth of domestic textile and clothing in the three and fourth quarter will still be guaranteed. However, due to the decline in EU orders, plus the three and fourth quarter last year's export data, the higher the base, the three and fourth quarter growth rate will decline this year.

Due to the large increase in the first half of the year, the annual growth of textile and clothing is expected to increase by 16%.

On the whole year's growth, we believe that the growth of textile and garment exports will be around 16% in the first half of this year and the growth rate in the three quarter will not drop much.

The appreciation of RMB and the rising cost of labor have limited impact on the leading industry in the industry.

The leading parts of textile and clothing have an impact, but because leading enterprises have long-term stable customer base, strong R & D and bargaining power, and bank operation, the impact of RMB appreciation can be reduced to a minimum.

In addition, the general increase in labor costs will lead to an average increase in production costs between 3% and 6%.

Nearly 70% of the small and medium enterprises in China profit margins below 4%, and higher costs will lead to losses for small and medium-sized enterprises.

For large enterprises with a profit margin of over 10%, especially the leading enterprises in the fine molecular industry, the original employment system is more standardized, so the impact is limited.

Besides, the withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises, the standardization of industries and the upgrading of industries will be conducive to the development of leading enterprises.

Focus on listed companies.

We still believe that printing and dyeing should be emphasized.

accessories

In the sub sectors, Weixing shares, hang min shares, Zhonghe shares, and yarn leading enterprises, Huamao shares, Huafu color spinning, etc.

Risk warning: in the future, the excessive appreciation of RMB will engulf enterprise's order profit, and the future global economy (especially the European Union) will directly affect the order quantity of enterprises.