Crude Oil Prices Continue To Oscillate, PTA Costs Are Hard To Go Up

Crude oil prices continue to oscillate, and PTA costs are hard to go up.

Brent crude oil price chart (2010-01-01 to 2010-08-22)

According to the chart above, we can see that Brent Crude oil prices keep oscillating trend in the near future, although every rebound has been raised, and the top of the rebound has also gone up slightly, but the overall oscillation is still at 70-80 cents. PX quotes linger for $900-950 for a long time. PTA's external price has also been stable for $850-900 for a long time. The cost has not been significantly increased, and the profit margins of PTA manufacturers remain above 1000 yuan.

The warehouse receipts have been reduced substantially, and the price difference between the near and forward contracts is obviously unreasonable.

PTA warehouse receipts continued to decline, the current exchange warehouse receipts in 34 thousand front-line, or about 170 thousand tons PTA. Last week, there was an abnormal expansion of the PTA1010 contract. Taking into account the difference between 1009 and 1010 contracts, there was a price difference of 200 yuan / ton between the 1010 contracts. The customers of the warehouse receipt had already closed up 1009, so that they could get larger profits on the 1010 contract. The difference between the September contract and the main contract is nearly 500 yuan, which is also unconventional. Generally speaking, the monthly cost of PTA contracts is about 60 yuan, and the cost of 5 months is about 300 yuan. Therefore, the difference of 200 yuan constitutes the basis of hedging. The advance of PTA futures is mainly driven by the promotion of the capital side. At present, the withdrawal of many bulls also makes short positions more than long positions. In the short term, there is little possibility that PTA will be stronger again.

Limited film production, polyester decline

Since mid August, due to power restriction, downstream loom The rate of starting up has dropped, especially in Changxin's water jet weaving and Haining warp knitting operations. The volume of fabrics and fabrics has been reduced, and the enthusiasm of loom production has dropped. Affected by this, the market atmosphere further spread, the pressure on factory inventories increased significantly, and the price of polyester and silk products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased. 23, Sheng Hong Pu fell 200 yuan / ton, Hengli quotation also has 100-300 yuan / ton decline, Taicang Shin Jiu chemical fiber FDY quotation has 300 yuan / ton decline, Rongsheng FDY partial quotation fell 300 yuan / ton, DTY fell 100-200 yuan / ton, Tong Kun POY part of the quoted price fell by 100 yuan. At present, the purchase of polyester in downstream textile enterprises is still cautious. There is a lack of support from market purchasing power. The polyester market is not optimistic. The pressure of polyester fiber inventory in chemical fiber spinning plant is gradually increasing, and the market is still mainly based on the volume of shipment, and the short-term decline is more than just. This round of callbacks of PTA is also caused by the weakening of downstream market demand, and the weakness of polyester market is the fuse to start the fall.

The throwing and storing of cotton will suppress the PTA market in a short time.

In August 19th, dropping large reserves and dropping thousands of Yuan brought a strong impact to the spot market of cotton, which was also reflected in the futures market of the next day. Zheng cotton futures declined all the way, and PTA followed closely.

One of the downstream products of PTA is polyester staple fiber, which is the raw material of textiles with cotton. The price relationship will affect the amount of each ingredient in the textile ingredients, thus affecting the market demand for PTA. Since rumors of cotton throwing and storage have been confirmed, cotton is no longer the glory of the past. And polyester staple fiber has a certain price substitution relationship. Cotton prices will continue to drive down the short and short follow, and then drag on the rise of PTA.

To sum up, the international crude oil overcast not only makes PTA futures lose cost support, but in the peak season of September and the high price of cotton, the price of PTA futures is unlikely to drop sharply in the short term. PTA is still in the "three high" background of high profit, high opening rate and high inventory, coupled with the continued market anxiety on policy tightening and foreign trade situation. It is expected that PTA will not be strong in the short term.