Analysis Of Cotton Supply And Demand Situation In 2011

2010/2011 year

In 2008/2009 and 2009/2010, China's cotton market can be said to be a constant wave. From 2 million 776 thousand tons of cotton to 3 million 242 thousand tons (2 million 642 thousand tons in the earlier period, 600 thousand tons in the later period), the cotton import quota is increased from only 894 thousand tons in 2008/2009 to three times in 2009/2010. Cotton prices from nearly 10000 yuan per year in 2008/2009 to 18400 yuan per ton in the early July of 2009/2010, compared with crude oil, commodity prices and stock markets, the price of cotton is all the way up.

The domestic cotton market in 2010/2011 will remain calm.

At present, although the new cotton market is still 20~30 days away, cotton processing enterprises have been ready to fight for it, and the gunpowder for resources and customers has begun to grow stronger.

On August 10~16, the net paction price of national cotton imports (discount 328 level) was 18318, 18453, 18399, 18385, 18257 yuan / ton respectively. On the face of it, the paction price was lower than the current market spot 500 yuan / ton, but it was related to Xinjiang cotton weight loss, pportation costs, outgoing and paction fees and so on.

Global: according to USDA data, the growth rate of global cotton output in 2010/2011 is larger than the growth rate of consumption, and the supply and demand of cotton is more balanced. Among them, the total output of the three major cotton producing countries in the United States, India and China all shows a rising trend of recovery, but the tension of supply and demand of cotton in China, Pakistan and Turkey is still widespread.

It is worth noting that the global cotton inventory consumption ratio dropped to the lowest level in ten years in 2010/2011 - only 41.5%, down 16.24% from 2001/2002.

ICAC predicts that the annual average Cotlook A index of the 2010/2011 year (the spot price of international cotton grade M, about three domestic cotton) is 85 cents per pound per year, increasing by 7 cents / pound compared with 2009/2010, and the rising trend of global cotton price has been formed.

China's cotton textile situation has improved in 2009/2010, and is better than the industry's expectations for the situation. The consumption of cotton has also expanded to 9 million 400 thousand ~1000 million tons.

USDA, ICAC and other agencies have predicted that China's cotton consumption will reach 10 million 200 thousand ~1050 million tons in 2009/2010, and the import volume will exceed 2 million 800 thousand tons. However, from the beginning and end of the import volume analysis, consumption will not exceed 10 million tons.

In 2009/2010, China's spinning volume will be nearly 5 million 500 thousand tons higher than that of 2007/2008, but the demand for cotton will be reduced by 600 thousand tons. This indicates that in the past three years, the production capacity of blended yarn and chemical fiber yarn is higher than that of cotton yarn, and the pace of adjusting the industrial structure and upgrading of cotton textile industry has gradually accelerated.

The proportion of spinning and distributing cotton in China has gradually decreased.

Since January 2009, the proportion of cotton blending in domestic cotton textile enterprises has shown a "phased" downward trend.

The proportion of cotton blending in January 2009 was 58.05%, and in 2009, it dropped to 51.35% low in 8 and September. Then it was supported by the marked recovery of orders for export of cotton yarn, and it began to pick up since October.

According to statistics, the ratio of spinning to cotton was 53.95% in 2009, and the ratio of cotton to cotton in 1~6 month was 53.8% in 2010. The proportion of cotton blending in single month was stable at 52%~55%, and the consumption of cotton also stabilized at 850 thousand ~ 950 thousand tons / month.

Since September 2009, the proportion of textile enterprises to Xinjiang cotton has been maintained at over 50%.

2009 cotton blending ratio: 2664*1.04- (789+128+350+50) /2664*1.04= "52.46%" (1.04 in formula 1.04, 4% for spinning loss), 2664 of which is the total spinning amount calculated in the year of 2009/2010, 789 for 2009/2010 year polyester fiber production, 128 for 2009/2010 year viscose staple fiber production, 350 for 70% small chemical fiber production, 50 for other staple production, slightly lower than that of the author's survey data.

The price will go higher and lower.

In 2010/2011, regardless of cotton supply and demand, market liquidity or domestic and foreign economic situation, the price of seed cotton and the price of lint sale will be a step higher than that of 2009/2010.

However, due to the purchase of type 200 and 400 type processing plants, the postponed period of 15~20 days for the cotton market, the impact of international cotton yarn prices and domestic upside down and capital speculation, etc., the cotton market in 2010/2011 may show a tendency to go higher and lower. The low point will appear in 1~3 month.

But at the same time, we should also see five uncertainties: first, whether the three and fourth quarter countries will face the second round of monetary stimulus policies in the face of the unoptimistic economic situation; two, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will increase, and the pressure on export to European and American countries will increase; three, the textile and clothing export tax rebate will also face adjustment at the later stage; four, the trade friction of textile and clothing has risen sharply; in 2009, 22 countries and regions have launched 116 anti-dumping, countervailing and special insurance investigations to China, directly involving the export amount of 12 billion 600 million U. S. dollars. Five, the impact of the European debt crisis is far from over, and the economies of Europe and Central Asia may have a chance to go to the bottom.