Facing The Pressure Of RMB Appreciation &Nbsp; Textile And Garment Export Enterprises Are Very Cold.

Since entering a revaluation channel in September 8th, the appreciation has been close to 1.2%.

Facing the pressure of RMB appreciation,

Appreciation in the next year or 5%

In September 20th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.711. From the beginning of September 8th, the RMB has entered a round of appreciation channels, and the RMB has risen to 797 basis points against the US dollar. During that period, the 7 consecutive trading days hit a new high since the reform in July 21, 2005.

On the issue of RMB exchange rate, China is under tremendous pressure from the international community, especially the United States.

At the hearing of the US Congress on international economic and monetary exchange rates, US Treasury Secretary Geithner said the United States will join forces with other countries to put pressure on China, suggesting that the current appreciation of the Renminbi should at least reach 20%.

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After the RMB entered a revaluation channel, the officials expressed the attitude of "to further promote the exchange reform and enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate" on different occasions.

Teng Tai, chief economist of Minsheng securities, said: "the tolerance of the monetary authorities to appreciation will gradually expand, and the tolerance of the export decline brought by the appreciation of the renminbi will also gradually expand."

According to tengtai, by the end of 2010, the yuan will rise to 1:6.5 against the US dollar, which means that there will be a 3% appreciation in the fourth quarter.

Goldman Sachs predicted that the renminbi would appreciate by 5% in the next 12 months.

Export enterprises pay attention to 3% red line

The continued appreciation of RMB is more unfavorable to export enterprises.

Especially for textile and garment industries with strong export dependence and low profit margins, the damage is particularly strong.

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Pan Rihui, Secretary General of Dongguan textile and garment industry association, said, "basically, how much the renminbi is going to rise, and how much it affects, the enterprises hope that the appreciation of the renminbi will slow down or even stop."

Pan Rihui said, stress tests show that textile and garment export enterprises can bear the appreciation rate of RMB less than 3%, and SMEs are more sensitive to this.

A small and medium-sized business owner who runs shoes and hats and handbags told reporters that the value added of clothing and textile enterprises is low, while the price elasticity of clothing export demand is relatively high. Price changes have a greater impact on the export demand of textile and garment industry, especially small and medium-sized textile and garment enterprises, the profit margins are not high, and the bargaining power is low.

Product export prices narrowed narrowing

According to Pan Rihui, in the face of the pressure of RMB appreciation, enterprises have been trying different countermeasures, such as the use of RMB as trade settlement currency, but with little effect, "few foreign enterprises accept".

What worries the business owners is that once the appreciation of RMB exceeds the 3% red line, the prices of many raw materials will also rise, and the cost of production will rise. "In order to maintain overseas market share in the appreciation of the renminbi, enterprises will only have to cut prices, while the increase in domestic production costs will further narrow the price cut of the export prices of enterprises, and if there is a situation of internal and external difficulties, it will be very difficult for enterprises to adhere to it."

In the first 8 months of this year, in the context of the resurgence of the financial crisis, international demand rebounded, and textile and garment exports maintained a relatively high growth rate.

Statistics show that in the first 8 months, textile and clothing exports totaled nearly US $130 billion, up 23.75% over the same period last year.

It is predicted that the export of industries in the fourth quarter will be slipping, and the annual export growth is expected to be around 16%.

In addition to the textile and garment industry, the export of other industries will also be affected by the appreciation of the renminbi.

Wang Zixian, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the Ministry of Commerce, has said that the current export is still facing multiple internal and external pressures, and the monthly export in the second half of this year may be too fast.