September Foreign Trade Voyage Or "Wave Blocking" Import And Export Growth Rate Double Down

If we take China this year

Yesterday, many experts said that according to the preliminary data, import and export year-on-year growth will be expected to decline.

Data suspense needs to be solved, but one thing is certain that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is still undiminished.

Can the surplus remain high?

This year's foreign trade data after experiencing a rare deficit in the beginning of the year, "

Customs statistics show that in August, China's import and export value was 258 billion 570 million US dollars, an increase of 34.7%.

Of which, exports amounted to 139 billion 300 million US dollars, an increase of 34.4%, a 3.7 percentage point slower than last month, and imports of US $119 billion 270 million, an increase of 35.2%, a 12.5 percentage point increase over last month.

Before August, China's import and export value was 1 trillion and 875 billion 580 million US dollars, up 40% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports of US $989 billion 740 million, an increase of 35.5%, and imports of US $885 billion 840 million, an increase of 45.5%.

The trade surplus totaled US $103 billion 900 million, which has exceeded official expectations, that is, the annual trade surplus will be narrowed to less than 100 billion dollars.

From September's first reference index, from the data of China's export container pport market, the volume of European and North American routes was basically stable in early 9.

The Baltic Sea index (BDI) dropped earlier in the month and fell by 10.8% from the beginning of September 24th to a half of August.

China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released in September, was 53.8%, up 2.1 percentage points from last month.

From the related sub index, it shows a general upward trend.

Among them, the new export orders index for that month was 52.8%, a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month.

However, institutional forecasts are hard to predict.

Societe Generale Bank chief economist Lu commissar predicted that the growth rate of exports in September will fall into the 22.4%~26.4% range, with a median value of 24.4%, a sharp drop of 10 percentage points from the previous month. Imports will fall into the 21.1%~25.1% range in the same period, with a median value of 23.1%, a sharp drop of 12.1 percentage points from the previous month. The surplus may be between 15 billion 500 million and 19 billion 500 million US dollars, with a median value of 17 billion 500 million US dollars, down about 2 billion 500 million dollars from the previous month.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, is relatively optimistic.

Li Xunlei told reporters that he predicted that the median growth rate of exports will be 28.2% and the median growth rate of imports will be 22.5%, so the surplus will reach 22 billion 120 million US dollars, up from last month.

PMI data showed that although the import index in September was 52.9%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points from last month, in the 20 industries, the ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, clothing and footwear manufacturing and feather and down products industry, metal products industry, wood processing and furniture manufacturing industry and other industries were less than 50%.

This also confirms the judgment of some experts in the industry: in the domestic "energy saving and emission reduction" sprint, "sluice limit electricity" and other measures, the import may fall back in September.

How to deal with the pressure exchange rate drama

No matter how the direction of China's foreign trade goes, pressing the RMB exchange rate from time to time seems to have become a regular drama in some western countries.

Not long ago, the RMB exchange rate has been under pressure from the US side because of the high monthly surplus and the pressure of the US mid-term elections.

Recently, the pressure from the European Union is showing signs.

Li Xunlei said that although the EU is China's largest trading partner, it will mean a stronger appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar if the renminbi is to accelerate the pace of appreciation to the EU.

"It is unlikely that I will still maintain the judgement of the slow appreciation of the renminbi in the year."

He pointed out.

Lu commissar told reporters that luckily, the rapid appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar in the earlier period coincided with the depreciation of the US dollar, so the effective exchange rate did not rise much.

He believes that some of the European Union's pressure to revalue the renminbi is "want to add to the crime, why do we have to worry about it?"

"The core issue of the game is that the United States urges the EU to sell part of the voting rights of IMF to new developing countries such as China, while the EU wants China to exchange the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate."

He said.

One industry insider said that many EU countries, while Germany and France, have great deficits in trade with China and even surpluses. Therefore, within the EU, it is unlikely that efforts will be made to exert pressure on the RMB exchange rate.