September Surplus Dropped To Its Lowest Point In Five Months.

Customs General Administration released 13 import and export data in September, September.

Insiders said that the external imbalance pressure of China's economy has eased, but the world economy will continue to recover from a weak trend in the future. The currency competitive depreciation of various countries is beginning to emerge. It is expected that the slowdown in export growth will continue.

"The monthly surplus in September dropped to the lowest point in nearly five months, with multiple meanings."

Wang Jinbin, a professor at the school of economics, Renmin University of China, said in an interview with the economic reference daily that the RMB exchange rate is facing appreciation pressure. The economic recovery in Europe, the United States and Japan has been slowing down. Coupled with the rise in domestic wages, these three factors determine the slowdown in exports.

Secondly, China's imports have increased with the steady growth of domestic demand and various pressures from abroad.

The above factors have led to a gradual decline in the trade surplus.

"The decrease in surplus indicates that the external pressure of China's economic imbalance is slowing down, but because the surplus is still favorable, the total external imbalance is still increasing."

Wang Jinbin said.

In September this year, China's export growth rate has dropped for fourth consecutive months. In September, China's exports to ASEAN increased by US $11 billion 483 million, the growth rate slowed down to 12.81% in the 4 consecutive months. In September, China's exports to the European Union and the United States increased by 28 billion 802 million US dollars and 26 billion 978 million US dollars. The growth rate slowed down from 34.35% and 35.39% in August to 27.37% and 27.52% in September.

In an interview with the economic reference daily, Lu Zhiming, a researcher at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, pointed out that the main reasons for the decline in export growth are two points: first, the proportion of total exports to ASEAN has declined.

This is related to the recent economic overheating and cooling in ASEAN.

Two, although the slowdown in the European debt crisis and the weak recovery in Europe and the United States continue, there is still a slight two bottom pressure on the economy in the short term, especially the trade frictions between Europe and the United States.

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China's foreign trade is still facing great challenges in the fourth quarter. The industry expects that the growth rate of imports and exports will continue to stabilize.

Judging from the world economic situation, Japan, Korea and Brazil have adopted unilateral foreign exchange market intervention measures to limit the pressure of rapid appreciation of local currencies.

Lu Zhiming pointed out that we should be vigilant against the pressure of export growth caused by currency competitive devaluation.

This will certainly prolong the period of the weak recovery of the world economy, and will also affect international trade and import and export trade.

The trend of weak recovery in developed countries is difficult to change in the short term, and will also cause pressure on China's exports.

For example, the US and Japan's economic performance continued to slump. The P MI index of the US manufacturing industry dropped from 56.30 in August to 54.40 in September. The Japanese manufacturing P MI index continued to fall from 50.10 in August to 49.50 in September.

"In addition, Europe and the United States will continue to increase trade frictions against China in order to promote the recovery of their export industries, and China's export growth will be inhibited to a certain extent."

Lu Zhiming said that export growth is expected to stabilize in October, the growth rate will be around 30% in the fourth quarter, and the trade surplus will continue to be stable.

Western securities analysis pointed out that China's exports will decline significantly in the next few months, while PM I shows that the steady economic growth of China will contribute to the growth of China's imports, and China's trade surplus will fall rapidly in the coming months.

Wang Jinbin believes there is uncertainty about whether the surplus will continue to decrease.

"Since the current domestic economic growth rate is slowing down, this trend will continue to the one or two quarter of next year, so the import demand may also be reduced, which will also bring about an increase in the trade surplus and, of course, it depends on exports."