Ren Zhiqiang Said Restriction Is Not A Good Way To &Nbsp; Not Buying A House Is A Fool.

As one of the activities of the 2010 Autumn Fair in Nanjing, yesterday's forum not only attracted the attention of a large number of media reporters, but also many people attending the exhibition.

But even if security personnel kept on checking, the conference hall with 200 people could squeeze more than 300 people, and the corridors on both sides were also crowded.

Can the restriction order be suppressed?

"Not control a good way, back to the planned economy old way."

Point 1: increase supply and curb investment.

Regarding the topic of "restriction order", Ren Zhiqiang, President of Huayuan Group of Beijing, believes that regulation and control policies never seem to solve the supply from the source, but restrict consumption and purchase from the market. The latter is exactly the way to "hurt eight hundred of the enemy and hurt oneself one thousand".

Yesterday, Ren Zhiqiang reiterated this view.

"The restriction policy can solve the problem of short-term supply and demand in the market, but it can not solve the long-term demand satisfaction problem, so this is not a good way to regulate and control."

Ren Zhiqiang said that in the era of planned economy, food stamps were issued when food was scarce, and tickets were issued when the cloth was scarce. That was because the production shortage did not lead to a shortage economy.

The result of reform and opening up is to change from restriction to purchase without restricting the purchase of any commodity. If the restriction does not solve the needs of people, this is not a way of market economy, nor is it a good way to solve long-term problems.

"The problem is that urban land supply is often insufficient, for example, Nanjing has only completed more than 30%, and Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and so on have not completed the original plan for land supply."

Ren Zhiqiang said that the shortage of land supply will lead to the shortage of commercial housing, and still can not change the problem of rising housing prices.

View two: restriction on deprivation of people's right to migrate

Ren Zhiqiang said that the "restriction order" of many cities, without exception, restricts the purchase of outsiders, for example, some local residents can buy another set, while the outsiders prohibit the purchase. He thinks this is equivalent to depriving the people of their right to move, whether moving from one city to another, or moving from the countryside to the city.

Ren Zhiqiang believes that this is actually a planned economy means: "if the planned economy can be more efficient than the market economy, China may not need to reform."

Viewpoint three: market economy can not go backwards.

Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China, agreed with Ren Zhiqiang on the forum.

"The role of market price adjustment in resource allocation has been undermined, and short-term policies can not solve the long-term problems, so we can not introduce these retrogressive policies."

Pan Shiyi said that in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China has benefited from the market economy. Social progress and wealth growth are very fast and can not be returned to the old road of planned economy. "The older people who are hurt by the planned economy to the economy and society are very clear."

Will property tax be introduced?

"When prime minister did not know,"

In view of the property tax issue that has been fiercely discussed in the housing market regulation, Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China, said, "this time, I believe that the property tax is not a bluff."

As for the time when the boots landed, Pandanyi asked, "how do I know this? Even the prime minister doesn't know this!"

Pan Shiyi said that 99% of the people he contacted were against the Levy of property tax, but he thought it should be introduced because the greatest utility of the property tax is to solve the polarization between the rich and the poor, which is beneficial to social equity.

On the topic of property tax, Ren Zhiqiang expressed different views.

He thinks that every period of tax reduction is usually accompanied by the rapid development of the economy. Any increase in taxes is in the period of economic recession.

From the perspective of the domestic economic environment, there is no foundation for the levy.

Ren Zhiqiang emphasized that if property tax is to be levied, it should be a reform on the basis of not increasing the tax burden of the common people, or the reform of the current tax system is prior. After the introduction of property tax, it will not happen very soon in the developed countries.

This speech won the applause of the audience.

Can we buy a house in the current space?

"Do not buy a house is a fool, China's house prices will not fall".

Viewpoint one: who will not buy who is unlucky.

For the question of whether we can buy a house now, Ren Zhiqiang once again breathed an astonishing view yesterday: "not buying a house is a fool."

"If China has always maintained a high growth rate of GDP, why not buy it? For example, steel will rise, cement building materials will go up, land prices will also rise in price, so housing prices will rise at this cost," Ren Zhiqiang said. From the economic cycle of Japan, the United States and Hongkong, China's housing prices have all come down in the case of GDP negative growth. In the 30 years since China's reform and opening up, there has been no negative economic growth for a year, so there is no need to worry that house prices will fall.

In addition, Ren Zhiqiang believes that China's urbanization process has a long way to go, the demographic dividend will not be canceled in the short term, he predicted that in 2015 or 2020 will be aging, and the peak population will appear in 2030, so from now on to this period, housing prices will definitely not fall.

Point two: house prices return to the first half of 2009

On this issue, Pan Shiyi holds different views. He thinks that prices will return to the level of early 2009.

"There is a common sense in the market, that is, the price of the floor can not exceed the price of the house, and if the price of flour is more expensive than that of bread, it is not common sense."

Pan Shiyi said that the so-called return to the level of early 2009, is back to the highest level of common sense, developers can not blindly take, people will not be crazy to buy a house.

As for how much housing prices will fall, Pan Shiyi predicted that it should be around 10% to 15%. Whether we can achieve this goal depends on the outcome of regulation.