The Economic Operation Is Expected To Slow Down &Nbsp; The Focus Of 12Th Five-Year Will Shift To Domestic Demand.

The National Bureau of statistics will announce China's third quarter GDP data on 21 May this year. At present, many economists and many agencies have indicated that the growth rate of China's GDP will drop by quarter.

"China's economy will slow down moderately, the growth rate of China's imports and exports will obviously slow down, and the growth rate in 2011 will reach a very low level."

China and World Economic Research Center (CCWE) of Tsinghua University made a trend forecast in the 16 quarter of 2010, China's macroeconomic forecast and analysis in the third quarter of 2010: China's growth rate in 2010 was around 10%, and in 2011 it dropped to around 9.5%.

Wei Fengchun, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC Securities, said in an interview with our reporter yesterday that the GDP in the three quarter was expected to be 9.5%, continuing to drop from the 11.9% high in the first quarter, and the fourth quarter will further fall to 8.8%.

Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomic economist of CITIC Securities, also said that the industrial growth rate in September was affected by the holiday factors. It is estimated that industrial growth will be about 13.5% in September.

According to the corresponding changes in industry and other industries, GDP is expected to be 9.1% in the third quarter.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Everbright Securities, said that in the short term, due to worries about economic growth and real estate regulation and appreciation of RMB, it is expected that government investment will be relaxed. With the allocation of central investment and local government support, it is estimated that the growth rate of investment in the future will continue to maintain a high level, and next year will be the first year of the "12th Five-Year plan". Therefore, although real estate investment will face greater difficulties next year, the overall investment growth will still be considerable.

Therefore, this year's GDP growth rate is expected to reach about 10%, while next year's GDP growth rate will remain around 9.5%.

However, economists said that China's macroeconomic policy will remain stable.

During the "12th Five-Year" period, the focus of China's economic growth will shift to domestic demand.

According to the CCWE forecast, China's import and export growth rate will obviously slow down, and the growth rate in 2011 will reach a very low level.

"China will take the domestic demand as the main factor.

As for how to expand domestic demand, Tang Min, Deputy Secretary General of the China Development Research Foundation, suggested accelerating the process of urbanization.

In the next 20 years, 400 million migrant workers and their families will be pformed into urban residents in China. In this process, there will be huge investment in education, health care and old-age care.

Therefore, accelerating the process of urbanization will produce huge domestic demand.