The Yuan Has Been Rising &Nbsp For A Long Time, And The Canton Fair Has Become A Life-Saving Straw For Export Shoe Companies.
On October 18th, Li Qiangyu paid close attention to this number every day for a whole month. He is from Hangzhou. foreign trade Yi Economic Cooperation Bureau is in charge of the director of foreign trade.
"The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has a greater impact on general trade.
General trade in Hangzhou accounts for the whole city.
Exit
The total amount is nearly 80%, higher than the national average of 44% nearly 30 percentage points, and facing greater pressure.
Li Qiangyu said.
In September 22nd, after nine consecutive trading days, the yuan entered the "6.6" era.
On this day, Li Qiangyu could not sit in his office and summoned other colleagues to Fuyang.
Fuyang is a county-level city under the city of Hangzhou.
From the beginning of this year, exports here have recovered rapidly and performed well.
In 1-8 months, Fuyang's foreign trade self operated exports amounted to US $490 million, up 48.7% from the same period last year, and 83.6% of the annual plan was completed.
There is another reason to choose this place. "Fuyang's industry is very representative. The export of electromechanical products accounts for more than 50%, and the rest is basically traditional industries, which are the two main advantages of our country's exports."
Li Qiangyu said.
After the return of the Spring Festival this year, the RMB appreciation problem of "dormancy" has surfaced for more than a year.
Li Qiangyu said that similar research began at that time.
And repeatedly remind exporters to make preparations ahead of time, and have a psychological expectation of RMB appreciation.
"Now, some enterprises are doing well, some enterprises are doing worse."
Li Qiangyu said, "many people still hope for a false alarm like last time."
The upward trend of the renminbi has been worrying these days. Li Qiangyu said that many enterprises were obviously somewhat panic, and many enterprises reflected that the speed was too fast.
Some enterprises even think of whether they will break 6 this year.
Li Qiangyu said that all kinds of conjecture of the enterprise were justifiable. He said, "even we are unable to sit still, let alone those standing on the front line."
Some of the larger enterprises are not as good as they can be.
Now I dare not answer the list, because I don't know how to talk with others, I'm afraid I will lose money after half a day's work.
"We went down to investigate and stabilize the army.
We have to explain with enterprises again and again that this is a game, and that the state can not be promoted at once, and no one knows that a few points are in place.
Li Qiangyu said.
Li Qiangyu said another important task of the survey is to remind enterprises again how to avoid exchange rate risks and what they can do in terms of bargaining, and in the long run, we must focus on independent innovation.
To avoid exchange rate risk, what we can do now is to speed up remittance settlement and actively use financial instruments.
When signing a contract, when negotiating with foreign businessmen, we can emphasize how much the exchange rate appreciates, and the two sides share the losses together.
"Many companies did this a few months ago."
The bargaining space mainly depends on the strength of the enterprise itself, the substitutability of the products and so on.
"But this time, we encourage enterprises to shift their losses to the upstream and downstream, so that they will not be dragged down at once. In areas where industries are concentrated, enterprises should join forces to bargain with foreign businessmen and produce a tug of war effect."
Li Qiangyu patiently spoke these words to the enterprise.
As for independent innovation, this is far from the topic of near thirst.
This is an investigation which is neither planned nor too mature.
Li Qiangyu said, "everyone is a bit anxious at once.
Now the business departments across the country are estimated to be doing this work. I know that many provinces and cities in Jiangsu and Sichuan are also asking this case.
We are in this month.
Canton Fair
I will do more detailed research on this issue.
Appreciation of the renminbi will be a focus of this autumn Canton Fair.
What is the bearing capacity of export enterprises?
At the spring fair, an official of the Ministry of Commerce has publicly stated that all industries contain 2 points.
But the actual situation may be more optimistic, because many situations are flexible.
Li Qiangyu said, according to the previous results, we think that "6.5" is acceptable.
"Enterprises reflect that the RMB appreciation is within 5 points, some long-term cooperative partners are acceptable, and there are still some other means to pass on, but it will be very difficult for new customers to develop. If the appreciation is too large, more than 5 points, then the old customers will probably not be able to keep it."
He said.
In this survey, Li Qiangyu also found that some small exporters are now unable to carry on.
"They are considering closing the factory and finding another way to live.
A small boss is now running part-time insurance. "
Li Qiangyu said, "indeed, some big enterprises are under great pressure, not to mention these small businesses."
A shoe factory manager who is engaged in shoe processing says that a profit of 1 million US dollars is about 3.4 million yuan.
Recently, the appreciation of RMB has exceeded 1.5%, and profits have evaporated 200 thousand yuan at a draught. After deducting all kinds of expenses, such as wages and wages, there is little left.
"If we go on like this, we might as well sell cabbage."
The manager laughed at himself.
A large garment factory, which sold a total of 650 million dollars last year, earned 8 cents a dollar, that is, they made 520 million yuan last year.
The boss of the clothing factory told Li Qiangyu, "if the RMB rises to 6.3, according to last year's sales volume, it will lose 450 million yuan."
Will this trend of momentum continue after the mid-term elections in the United States? Everyone has a question mark in his mind.
"Enterprises are anxious, we are worried."
Li Qiangyu said, "in the end, how big the impact will be, let's look at the situation of next autumn's Canton Fair. After all, 25% of the enterprise's orders are received at the Canton Fair, which should be able to see the clues."
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