2010 The Replacement Effect Of Chemical Fiber Shows &Nbsp; PTA Will Still Be Uplink After Callback.

First, loose

First, look at the supply.

The amount of OPEC's remaining capacity is the key to determining the rise and fall of oil prices.

Between 2003 and 2008, OPEC's surplus capacity was between 1 million - 2 million barrels / day, and the economic development was good. Therefore, once hurricanes or geopolitical problems arise, pressure will be placed on tight oil and gas supply and demand, and oil prices will record high.

At present, OPEC's residual capacity is as high as 5 million - 6 million barrels / day, so the pattern of crude oil supply is loose.

At the same time, the stock demand of big countries is high. The stock of crude oil in the United States has been as high as 27 years, and the total stock of oil has also hit the highest level since record.

OECD inventories, including the world's developed countries, also hit a new high since 2000, which accounted for 53.4% of the world's oil consumption in 2009.

Second, look at the consumption of crude oil.

Among the crude oil consumption in the lower reaches of the United States, the largest proportion is the pportation industry, up to 71%, and the industrial and civilian sectors are 23% and 5% respectively.

Correspondingly, gasoline and jet fuel accounted for 47% and 8% respectively, while distillates and fuel oils accounted for only 19% and 2% respectively.

Gasoline consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics, and most of the peak occurs in early and mid August.

In probability, gasoline consumption in the four seasons will continue to decline.

The demand for distillate oil is relatively low, mainly for civilian heating fuels and industry.

The seasonal peak of distillate oil consumption is in the two seasons of spring and winter, and the peak value of distillate oil consumption is in the first ten days of February.

Therefore, the demand for distillate oil in the fourth quarter of 2010 is likely to continue to improve. However, with its share of total oil, distillate oil has limited fuel prices.

According to the recent data released by the US energy information administration, as of October 15th, oil demand in the United States was only 18 million 400 thousand barrels per day, far below the average 21 million barrels per day.

Look at the most direct monetary policy for commodities.

In order to cope with the weak world economic recovery, reduce the risk of global deflation and curb the appreciation of its currency, major central banks in developed countries have begun to take action.

In early October, the Japanese Central Bank announced that it would buy 5 trillion yen (US $60 billion) of government bonds, corporate bonds, real estate investment trusts and exchange traded funds in the face of political pressure from domestic demand to stimulate growth and restrain the rising yen.

Fed officials issued a signal that the end of March this year's bond purchases may be carried out again, which may be decided at the Fed's meeting on November 2-3.

The Bank of England suspended the purchase of bonds in February this year, but if the situation worsens, it may buy new assets.

The ECB does not have the so-called quantitative easing policy of buying large quantities of assets as the United States, Britain and Japan, but so far the central bank has spent 63 billion 500 million euros on the issuance of government bonds issued by troubled euro zone member states.

Against this background, although the economy is still weak, the demand for commodities is not strong enough to reach the level of early 2008, but the price of many varieties has arrived first.

Perhaps another loose monetary policy will save the economy. Maybe at some point, liquidity will fail and the economy will have a two dip. But for now, there is no lack of speculation capital in the commodity market, and the atmosphere of the bull market seems to be more intense than ever.

Crude oil with weak supply and demand will continue to oscillate strongly.

Two, high cotton prices, chemical fiber replacement effect to boost TA demand

In the past six months, the star market of the commodity market is the cotton of Zheng Shang, and the rise is like rainbow.

In October 8th, USDA announced the global cotton production and inventory forecast for 2010/2011.

The latest forecast shows that the world's cotton production has been reduced from 25 million 464 thousand tons to 25 million 404 thousand tons, reducing by 60 thousand tons; the global cotton consumption has increased by 52 thousand tons to 26 million 294 thousand tons compared with the forecast value in September; the end of the world cotton inventory has been reduced from 9 million 892 thousand tons to 9 million 724 thousand tons.

Among them, China's cotton production dropped from 7 million 76 thousand tons to 6 million 858 thousand tons, down 218 thousand tons compared with the forecast value in September, and the domestic end inventory reduced by 280 thousand tons to 3 million 205 thousand tons.

The situation of short supply of cotton will not change in the short term, and the situation of high cotton prices will also be maintained.

At the same time, there is a strong substitution relationship between chemical fibers and natural fibers.

The complementary and complementary relationship between cotton and PET staple has also created a mutual checks and balances mechanism. The price trend of polyester fiber is largely affected by cotton production and price. Conversely, the trend of polyester staple fiber will also restrict the price of cotton.

At present, except for all cotton and wool fabrics, most of the garments are made of synthetic fabrics, such as cotton and polyester, and polyester accounts for about 70%.

If the price difference between the two is relatively large, the proportion will change. Therefore, in the case of high cotton prices, the amount of chemical fiber will inevitably increase.

With the recent surge in cotton prices, polyester start-up rate has also increased significantly, polyester profits hit a new high since 2003.

The output of polyester in January 2009 was about 1 million 300 thousand tons, while the output in August 2010 was 2 million 250 thousand tons. The output of single month reached a record high.

With cotton prices driving, polyester staple fiber rose rapidly from 9600 yuan / ton to 13100 yuan / ton in one month.

At present, the difference between cotton and PET staple has reached the historical peak of 10000 yuan / ton. The replacement effect of later chemical fiber will gradually appear, and the polyester staple fiber still has room for improvement.

Returning to PTA itself.

The upstream raw material PX is tight due to a series of overhauled Petrochemical repairs, and short time unexpected parking prices have soared.

Downstream polyester production and marketing has been slightly stabilized after the initial crazy rise, but stocks are generally at a low level.

The PTA plant's operating rate is 80%, far below the previous normal 95%.

From the perspective of more macro capacity growth, the growth of polyester production capacity is faster than that of PTA.

This year, the new polyester production capacity has been put into operation this year, 1 million 60 thousand tons, and the 1 million 100 thousand quarter of the three quarter. There may be 900 thousand tons of new capacity in the fourth quarter.

Polyester production capacity will increase by 3 million tons over the first quarter of next year.

At present, China's PTA production capacity is 15 million 240 thousand tons, and its monthly output is about 1 million 200 thousand tons / month. This year only added Jialong and Han Bang (fourth quarter production), two sets of PTA total 1 million 200 thousand tons, polyester production capacity growth is obviously faster than PTA, from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year, PTA supply and demand relations will change, tight situation may reappear.

When we analyze polyester and cotton, we can not ignore the terminal's textile and clothing.

At present, whether the growth of China's textile and clothing sales can offset the negative effects brought about by the decline in exports and appreciation of the renminbi is not yet known, but this wave of bull market does not stem from the vigorous demand of the terminal, which is also the inherent weakness of the market.

However, if excess liquidity can offset the weakness of supply and demand of crude oil, and break the current oscillation limit, TA will set a new high on the premise that cotton stays strong.