Raising Interest Rates Will Affect Residents' Financing &Nbsp; Passive Pfer Is Better Than Active Investment.

Passive investment is better than active investment.

On the 19 day after the central bank announced the interest rate increase, the CPI rose by 3.6% the day before yesterday, still higher than the 2.50% one year period.

Bank deposit: calculate the account before pferring it.

Almost every time the interest rate is triggered by the interest rate adjustment, how long does it take for the deposit to be withdrawed before the deposit is pferred? The interest rate increases three, six, one, two, three, and five years respectively by 0.2%, 0.22%, 0.25%, 0.46%, 0.52% and 0.6% respectively.

The interest rate on demand deposits remained unchanged at 0.36%.

Therefore, assuming that the public has 10 thousand yuan deposit in the bank, the interest rates increased by 20 yuan, 22 yuan, 25 yuan, 46 yuan, 52 yuan and 60 yuan respectively, according to the deposit interest rates of three months, six months, one year, two years, three years and five years after the interest rate increase.

What is the best way to handle the pfer? By calculating the formula of "days of interest = interest rate days (adjusted interest rate adjusted interest rates)" (adjusted interest rate - interest rate), taking one year deposit as an example, the adjusted annual interest rate is 2.50%, the adjusted annual interest rate for the first 1 years is 2.25%, and the current interest rate is 0.36%. The formula is: 360 (2.5-2.25) 2.5-0.36 (=42.06) days, that is, the appropriate pfer time is about 42 days, which means that if the deposit time of a year deposit exceeds 42 days, the pfer will be lost; if the deposit time is within 42 days, the pfer is appropriate.

By analogy, it can be concluded that the two year period is about 115 days, the three year period is about 161 days, and the five year period is about 281 days.

In other words, if the deposit is in the corresponding days, then it will be advantageous to pfer.

Otherwise, do not turn over and wait for the next rate hike.

Due to the possibility of increasing interest rates, Shao Yue suggested that the deposit term should not be too long, and it would be more suitable for a year or so.

So once interest rates rise again, investors can quickly pfer to enjoy the new interest rate when they expire.

In addition, although the rate hike will raise interest rates to 2.5%, compared with 3.6% of CPI, the real interest rate is negative.

Financial products: liquidity and higher returns

For bank financing products, do not worry about buying these products after "raising interest rates" is not worthwhile. The earnings of RMB financial products will increase the rate of return, but it will be lower than the rate of increase, and the 0.5%-1.5% will be increased by the period.

Whether RMB financial products or foreign currency financing products will have a chain reaction under the influence of interest rate increase.

However, foreign currency products should be carefully chosen.

Because investment in foreign currency financial products should not only bear the risk of price fluctuation, but also undertake possible exchange losses, under the current situation, the annual yield of foreign currency financial products can reach 8% or so, so we must carefully choose one year foreign currency financial products.

Under the background of raising interest rates, investors can buy money market funds and ultra short debt funds in the near future.

From the perspective of the historical trend of personal investment and financing market after raising interest rates, money market funds are undoubtedly the biggest beneficiaries.

From a long-term investment perspective, after entering the interest rate cycle, it is more prudent to choose money market funds, which can not only increase the value, but also avoid the risk of raising interest rates and maintain the flexibility of funds.

At present, the annual yield of money market funds is almost the same as that of a one-year bank. The interest rate hike will undoubtedly further stimulate the yield of money market funds.

Prudent investors can intervene appropriately.

For more aggressive investors, partial stock funds are still the main investment options.

After raising interest rates, the partial equity fund's choice suggests that the effect of interest rate increase is mainly reflected in the stock held by the fund. Therefore, investors should pay attention to the long-term impact of interest rate increase on capital market and the stock allocation of funds.

The significance of this rate hike is that the state is concerned about inflation expectations, and China is likely to enter the interest rate channel in the future.

Customers who have idle funds do not propose to have 3 or 5 years of regular storage. They can buy some more liquid financial products and expect higher returns than regular deposits.

Some people will also ask whether it is cost-effective to buy the original time deposit into a financial product. With 100 thousand yuan and 3 years' deposit, it has been retained for 1 months as an example.

If the deposit is not pferred, the interest income will be 9990 yuan after the expiration of three years; if the deposit is made, the interest income will be 11259.17 yuan after three years (according to the same point calculation); if half a year or a year's financial products are sold, the interest income can be calculated at 3.7% according to the current income, and the interest income can be 11100 yuan after three years.

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Bond market: short term bad long-term good

Judging from the impact on the bond market, there will be a big difference between the market in the first half of this year and the first half of next year. In the short term, the market yield will face a systematic upward trend, and the market will remain stable after mid November when the yield adjustment is in place.

Take the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond as an example, if the yield is adjusted to 3.55% to 3.70%, the 10 - year treasury bonds have the disposition value.

And this interest rate increase and the possibility of further appreciation of the exchange rate, Shao Yue believes that in the background of economic recovery is not solid, real estate will continue to increase the regulation of the background, the economic slowdown is expected to have a greater impact on the bond market yield.

Therefore, under the situation of "high inflation and steady economic downturn", the bond market yield is difficult to go up sharply, and is more likely to appear in a certain range of shocks.

In the short term, the advantage of the debt base may be resolved by raising interest rates, but in the long run, with the rapid development of the economy, the prospect of debt base is still worth paying attention to.

The new debt base can be helped by short-term adjustment.

Securities Market: financial benefit real estate pressure

The interest rate hike is symmetric and interest rate is not increased.

It has a direct positive impact on bank stocks, especially large state-owned banks and insurance stocks.

The interest rate increase is relatively abrupt, generally speaking, it has little impact on the listed banks. As a whole, there are both advantages and disadvantages and positive effects. First, we can expand the range of interest rate floating; two, the increase of the benchmark interest rate will help to enhance the bank's ability to absorb deposits and improve the assets and liabilities structure of banks.

The benefit of insurance industry depends on the cycle of raising interest rates.

The reason is that its liabilities are long and assets are short.

Assets need continuous reinvestment to match the duration of liabilities.

About 80% of the insurance fund is fixed income assets, so when interest rates enter the rising cycle, the return on investment increases and increases the value of the company. On the contrary, interest rate falls into a downward cycle, and the rate of return on investment falls and the company value is lowered.

The real estate sector is the largest sector affected by the "interest rate increase". The first day of interest rate hikes is as high as 3.71%. Real estate is a capital intensive industry. In the context of the two regulation, interest rate rises are certainly bad for real estate.

Interest rate increases are intended to guard against inflation and price bubbles, which also have a certain impact on consumer confidence in housing. The impact on real estate stocks is neutral and negative. The factors that affect stock prices in the future will come from the decline in actual demand.

Unlike previous expectations, this deposit and loan benchmark interest rate increases symmetrically, resulting in changes in the provident fund, which will aggravate the overall demand changes in the real estate industry and inhibit the demand for real estate.

Comprehensive suggestion: active financial management and active investment

Shao Yue analysis said that willing to go to the bank to handle the pfer of the public, are often sensitive to capital gains, and relatively stable financial management of the public.

Taking into account the high growth rate of CPI, this part of the public should change their financial management ideas instead of passively handling the pfer. Instead, they should take the initiative to manage their finances and build their own portfolios while pursuing steady returns.

Specifically, for prudent investors, they can appropriately intervene in short-term RMB financial products and money market funds as cash instruments.

The core proportion of the proposed investment is stock or equity fund 25%, bond or bond fund 40%, currency 15%, peripheral investment allocation ratio 8%-15%.

For a more aggressive investor, the partial stock fund can be properly intervened, but the stock allocation of the fund should be noted.

The core proportion of the proposed investment is stock or equity fund 40%, bond 30%, currency 10%, peripheral investment allocation ratio 8%-15%.

In addition, investors can hold gold, art collections and other anti inflation financial products to prevent rapid shrinkage of assets.