In October, CPI Or A New High &Nbsp; The State Council'S Central Bank Warned Of Price Pressures.

Since the two quarter of this year, a large area of food prices

Yesterday (October 27th), the Chinese government website was released.

The State Council has deployed 7 tasks to stabilize prices and become an important task in the four quarter.

Recently, Wu Tong, who sold popcorn in Beijing, did not do well in business. He complained to the "daily economic news" reporter, "it is not because fewer people are buying. You see, this corn and sugar are going up and everything is going up, and selling popcorn can not earn a lot of money."

Xiao Wu's Popcorn business truly reflects the current price rise problem.

In October 25th, the Executive Council of the State Council analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the four quarter economic work, in which stable prices became the focus.

3.6%, in September, China's CPI reached a new high in 23 months, and the price index of residents in the first three quarters has reached 2.9%, approaching the control line of CPI3% in the year.

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, once said, "CPI rose by 3.6% in September, and some people said it was the highest point.

The next trend of inflation is still a big problem, but it will come down in December, because there is a tail up in December.

According to the Ministry of commerce data, the price of edible agricultural products continued to be high in October, and the price index of edible agricultural products kept a slight upward trend.

Last week, the temperature dropped, the production of open-air vegetable came to an end, the supply of the market decreased, and the average wholesale price of the 18 vegetables increased by 1.4%.

Prices of grain and meat have steadily increased.

International oil and oil prices continued to rise, import costs increased, retail prices of soya bean oil, rapeseed oil and peanut oil rose 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, and aquatic products prices also rebounded.

Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said that in September, the factor of CPI rose, with an impact of 1.3 percentage points, accounting for 36% of the year-on-year increase, while the new price increase accounted for 64% of CPI's year-on-year increase.

Mainly from the rise in food prices and the rise in living prices, the two factor contributed 90%.

Hongyuan securities reported that the tail factor in October will also be 0.1 percentage points more than that in September. Although the new rice is listed in large quantities, the price of the new rice is higher than that of Chen MI, and the price of domestic rice will steadily rise in the late stage. It will be supported by the state's lowest purchasing price for wheat. Later domestic flour prices will steadily rise. In October, CPI will still run high or 3.8%~4.0%.

Stabilizing prices is the key.

On the 25 day, Premier Wen Jiabao chaired a State Council executive meeting to carry out 7 deployments over the next few months, including stabilizing market prices, emphasizing energy conservation and emission reduction and promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

Based on the pressure of high inflation and high inflation, the top priority of the Executive Council of the State Council is to curb inflation. All 7 jobs are more or less related to inflation.

Among them, the first is to do a good job in autumn grain acquisition and autumn and winter work.

We must conscientiously organize the acquisition of autumn grain and standardize the grain market order according to law.

We should implement all kinds of deployment in autumn and winter to guide farmers to stabilize the planting area of winter wheat and winter rape.

Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Ministry of economic information of the state information center, told the "daily economic news" reporter that the purchase of autumn grain was first in order to stabilize grain prices, because the autumn grain harvest was good, but grain prices had been rising.

Stabilizing grain prices is crucial to controlling inflation.

In order to stabilize prices, we must do a good job in the production of life necessities, especially the production and market supply of "vegetable basket" products, and strengthen the production, pportation and marketing services.

We should severely punish all kinds of illegal activities such as hoarding, collusion in price increases and so on.

We should strengthen the issue of price information on important commodities, and effectively guide social expectations.

Zhu Baoliang believes that this year, the price of agricultural products is very strong, but still in the controllable range, mainly inflation expectations are relatively high.

Cotton prices rose by 40% a month, double the price of cotton during the same period last year.

In the work of stabilizing prices, the meeting stressed in particular that we should do a good job in the future of cotton reserves and Xinjiang cotton pport.

Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the cotton market in recent years was fierce in the international market. The move was to emphasize the supply of cotton in the mainland. In the meantime, although the reserve cotton was selling cotton reserves, the amount of reserves remained relatively small compared with demand.

From the middle of the year, "garlic you ruthless", "beans you play" to the current "sugar high" and "Ping what", speculators figure frequently.

Zhang Yongjun analysis shows that China's excess liquidity is a direct cause, and its impact is that the demand for supply exceeds demand, which is raised by raising the volume of businesses and individuals, and then pushing up prices.

Zhu Baoliang believes that mung beans and garlic have hype ingredients, and sugar and cotton do have problems.

China's cotton production has been reduced for two consecutive years. Due to the lack of subsidies, many farmers who grow cash crops are planting grain and natural disasters, all of which give speculators the opportunity.

However, Yao Jingyuan pointed out that the price trend in the fourth quarter should not be too worried, because the autumn grain output, which accounts for more than 75% of China's total grain output, reached more than 1 trillion Jin, which achieved a good harvest and laid the foundation for price stability.

The NDRC also held that in the next few months, with the further consolidation of the external demand market, the domestic demand market will continue to improve, and the overall price level will remain within the controllable range.

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7 key economic tasks in the fourth quarter

Earnestly grasp autumn grain acquisition and autumn and winter work

Pay close attention to energy conservation and emission reduction

Continue to take measures to stabilize market prices

Promoting stable and healthy development of the real estate market

Strengthening economic operation adjustment

Continue to do well in financial and financial work

Efforts should be made to solve problems related to people's livelihood.

Central bank released the latest report 4 major factors to pressure next year's prices

In October 27th, the people's Bank of China issued the "analysis of China's macroeconomic situation in the three quarter of 2010", pointing out that there is still some pressure on the future economic operation. The inflation risk is generally controllable in the future, but the pressure of rising prices can not be ignored in the future.

The central bank pointed out that in the first three quarters, CPI rose by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, 4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, of which the new price increase factor has increased CPI by 1.3 percentage points.

The central bank believes that the pressure of future price rises can not be ignored, mainly from the following four aspects:

First, the major economies will further implement quantitative easing monetary policy. Recently, the international commodity prices have rebounded rapidly. At present, the international commodity price CRB spot price index has surpassed the highest level before the crisis.

Two, the current monetary and credit environment is still relatively loose.

From September 2009 to May 2010, the growth rate of M1 has been close to or exceeded 30% for 9 consecutive months. The time lag effect of the high growth of pre monetary credit will continue for some time.

Three, there will be a big upward pressure on grain prices next year.

Although this year's grain harvest is in sight, grain prices are likely to continue to rise as the cost of raising grain increases, the demand for industrial grain increases, and the international grain price rises, which are reluctant to sell due to the domestic expected impact.

Four, income distribution and resource price reform may push up prices next year.

But Gao Hua Securities believes that "the rebound in real economy in the three quarter, the high CPI inflation rate and the rapid rise of PPI inflation rate are not accidental or driven by the growth of external demand, but because of the domestic policy's low-key relaxation.

The rise in food prices was initially driven by floods, but then remained high because of policy easing.

Shao Yu, chief analyst of Hongyuan securities, said that the fourth quarter GDP will continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate of 10% throughout the year.

In the wake of the rise of the tail factor, the high price of edible agricultural products, and the gradual import of imported inflation factors, CPI in October will reach a new high, but in November and December, CPI will drop somewhat, and the fourth quarter inflation pressure will remain.

Monetary policy has entered an interest rate increase cycle, but the rate and frequency of interest rate hikes depend on the changes in the economic situation. Whether the rate of interest rate increases in the year depends on the trend of the CPI in November.

At the same time, raising interest rates is also a signal of "moderate easing" to "prudent" pition of monetary policy.