12Th Five-Year: China'S Economic Growth May Be Down In The Next 3-5 Years.

Liu Shijin, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out that the medium and long term development of China's economy is facing 3 major challenges.

First, from the perspective of cyclical economic growth, China's economic growth rate will probably decrease in the next 3 to 5 years, and enter the stage of sub high speed or medium speed development.

Faced with the relative contraction of the demand scale brought about by economic growth from 10% to 7%, China's speed and efficiency oriented economy is facing pformation.

Two is along with

Rolf Lanhamel, deputy director of the World Economic Research Institute of Keele University, said that after the international financial crisis, the financial market is more fragile and the global economic structure is facing readjustment, which means that the global economic recovery will be a longer period.

"The reduction of external demand requires China's economic growth to shift to more domestic demand, especially consumption."

Behind the challenge reflects the urgency of accelerating the pformation of the mode of economic development.

Gao Shangquan, chairman of the board of directors of the China reform and Development Research Institute, pointed out that the long lag of China's economic development mode has profound institutional and institutional reasons.

From the perspective of resource allocation, the market of production factors is still not perfect, and the formation of factor prices is still subject to more administrative intervention, and the market mechanism is difficult to play its full role. From the perspective of market participants, many local governments directly intervene in economic activities too much, and some directly become the main body of market investment. Under the economic performance appraisal system, the imbalance of investment structure, industrial structure, urban and rural structure, regional structure, income distribution structure, economic and social development and other aspects of imbalance; from the perspective of fiscal and taxation system, it is not conducive to saving resources and achieving intensive development.

Gao Shangquan said.

Chi Fulin, President of the China Institute of reform and development, believes that with the profound changes in the internal and external environment, China's economic and social development needs to achieve the "four major changes" in the next five years: from investment dominated to consumption led, from industrialization leading to urbanization leading, from high carbon economy to low carbon economy, from the shortage of public goods to the equalization of basic public services in urban and rural areas.

"This requires greater determination to comprehensively push forward reform in all fields, so that reform can truly become a powerful driving force for accelerating the pformation of the mode of economic development."

Experts paid great attention to the reform of key areas such as income distribution and pformation of government functions.

Cao Yuanzheng believes that under the circumstances of new changes in the internal and external environment, the most important thing at present is to promote reform through the reform of income distribution.

He pointed out that China's economy has now shifted from total economic output to national income orientation. If such a guidance is adjusted, it will provide a stable and sustainable foundation for growth in the next five years, ten years or even longer.

Chi Fulin emphasized that the reform of income distribution involves the adjustment of major interest relations and is linked to the reform of fiscal and taxation systems. The difficulty and complexity of income distribution reform far exceed that of the past.

He suggested that the general plan of reform of income distribution system and fiscal and taxation system should be introduced as soon as possible during the period of "12th Five-Year", so as to take a good step and make a good start for reform.

At the same time, he suggested that we should take the government pformation as the key point to promote the reform of the administrative system. In order to strengthen the government's public service capacity, we should actively promote the government's shift from an economic construction oriented government to a public service oriented government, so that the government can return to the position of public interest representatives. This is the most substantive and challenging major task of the government's pformation.