The Two Round Of The US Quantitative Easing Policy Is Now Set In &Nbsp; The Global Focus Is On The US Banknote Printing Machine.

Affecting the heartbeat of global financial markets The second round of quantitative easing (QE2) policy in the US It will be finished tonight (4 hours in Beijing time). Settled 。

Although the market consensus has been relaxed, the scale of specific quantitative easing is still in suspense. Affected by this uncertainty, yesterday's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets failed to continue the rebound trend of the previous day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply after hitting 7 months' high, and resources and nonferrous metals stocks fell sharply in the afternoon, and the two cities closed at a level of 544 billion yuan. In the bulk commodity market, there are also high volatility and quiet waiting. Federal Reserve Resolution.

At present, public opinion is widely held that the meeting of the Fed will continue to maintain low interest rates and quantitative easing policies, and will launch a total of 500 billion US dollar bond purchase plan in the future. This is believed to bring more liquidity to the global economy, especially in emerging economies. As for the impact of QE on the US, Volcker, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said yesterday that it did not expect the Fed's unconventional monetary policy to have a huge impact on the economy.

To curb the impact of domestic inflation, the Central Bank of Australia and India announced yesterday that they would raise interest rates. Next, Japan, the United Kingdom and the European Central Bank's interest conference will also respond to this.

　 QE2, scale, second round, "banknote printing" quantity is doubtful.

Face 9.6% High unemployment rate, near zero benchmark interest rate and September core price index. 0.8% The second round of quantitative easing measures (QE2) launched by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is considered to be one of the few cards in its hands. Not long ago, Bernanke had been criticized for long term maintenance of almost zero interest rate "omission". Now, quantitative easing seems to be the only card in his hands that can compete with the outside world and save himself.

The focus of this conference is how much bonds the Federal Reserve will buy. So far, the Fed has bought it. One point seven Trillions of bonds continue to maintain low interest rates, but all this brings about the long-term economic downturn and the highest unemployment rate in 26 years.

According to the survey of experts before the conference, 53%~56%'s respondents believe that the conference will have a positive impact on unemployment and inflation. 20% of respondents believe that the Fed will definitely buy institutional bonds totaling more than 500 billion dollars; 7% think that the purchase strength will make the monthly purchase amount to 50 billion ~1000 billion dollars; the rest think the Federal Reserve may not guarantee the specific amount of bonds purchased.

Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has said that the effect of buying $500 billion bonds is likely to be equivalent to lowering the federal funds rate. Zero point five or Zero point seven five A percentage point. In addition, the US Federal Reserve launched another QE2's plan to reduce the US bond yield and force investors to invest in high return risk assets such as stocks, so that the American people and enterprises are willing to increase consumption and investment. Data show that if the Fed buys us $10 in 10 - year US debt, the 10 - year US bond yields will fall. 0.13% ~ 0.20% 。 {page_ Break}

　 QE2. How does the Federal Reserve play a role?

But the role QE2 can play in the view of Volcker, the former Federal Reserve Chairman, may be close to the limits of the Fed's monetary policy.

Theoretically speaking, the second round of quantitative easing will reduce the yield of US bonds, and the dollar should further depreciate, and the prices of high-risk assets such as stocks and commodities will rise. This is exactly what happened during the first round of quantitative easing during the most severe financial crisis. The recent trend of US dollar and US debt yields has reflected the forward-looking effect of QE2 to some extent, which seems to imply that the Fed's round of quantitative easing is far less effective than the first round in lowering interest rates.

Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the school of Finance and finance of Renmin University of China, told the "daily economic news" reporter: "the conference on interest rates will continue to adhere to Bernanke's quantitative easing policy and low interest rates, thus driving the recovery of the US economy and the improvement of the unemployment rate. But in general, quantitative easing will not have a short-term impact on the US dollar exchange rate. "

Just as Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, recently carried out the "multilateral cooperation" plan for the RMB exchange rate, the second round of quantitative easing of the Fed will not necessarily have the desired effect. Some experts pointed out that the Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing last year to rescue the market, and has already bought it. One point seven Trillions of dollars in assets, now pushing QE2 to buy more assets, will exacerbate market distortions. In addition, the Fed is now focusing too much on inflation and unemployment, without seriously considering the very low interest environment that will create bubbles. If inflation is not effectively controlled, will it have another round of economic impact on the world? {page_ Break}

　　 QE2. Influence to curb imported inflation and countries will take over

Some media analysts believe that the easing measures announced by the Federal Reserve this week will cause the US dollar to continue to depreciate and force other central banks to follow up measures to cushion the impact of the appreciation of the currency.

Liu Yuhui, director of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the daily economic news reporter: "the only way the Fed can choose now is to curb asset price declines through quantitative easing, thereby promoting the economy to get out of the shadow of inflation deflation. Of course, the United States will further bring the risk of US dollar assets to the emerging market countries. After all, the US dollar has the advantage of global monetary Monopoly cost, which will have an immeasurable impact on the future of the world economy.

Just yesterday, the Central Bank of India and Australia have raised their interest rates again, and after the Federal Reserve meeting, the interest rate meetings of the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will also begin.

Kumano Hideo, chief economist of the first Institute of life economics in Tokyo, said recently that the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve have prepared for the new round of devaluation competition. Credit Suisse believes that even if the intervention of the Japanese government to the foreign exchange market and the BoJ's quantitative easing policy, it is still impossible to weaken the yen trend, but the bank believes that if there is no intervention, the US dollar will break 80 against the Japanese yen.

Due to the fact that the outcome of the Fed's interest conference has not yet been released, the market is still watching. Yesterday, the US dollar index continued to fall from morning to morning. Seventy-seven point two eight Down to Seventy-six point seven three (21:30 Beijing time).