The Deposit Reserve Rate Increased By 0.5 Percentage Points &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Freezing Of Bank 350 Billion 400 Million

The reserve rate reached a record high.

After the increase, the deposit reserve ratio of the general financial institutions will reach 17.5%, while the 6 banks that had been implemented the differential deposit reserve ratio increased to 18%.

The reserve requirement ratio of 17.5% is the same as that of June 2008, while the reserve requirement ratio of 18% of large banks has exceeded the highest level in history.

The deposit reserve refers to the deposits deposited by the financial institutions in the central bank to ensure the customers' withdrawal of deposits and the need for funds clearing. The ratio of the deposit reserve required by the central bank to their total deposits is the deposit reserve ratio.

The deposit reserve ratio is 17.5%, which means that after the bank absorbs 100 yuan deposit, it has to pay 17.5 yuan to the central bank, so the funds that banks can use to lend is only 82.5 yuan.

By raising the deposit reserve ratio of banks, the central bank has released the signal of tightening liquidity and is known as one of the three big axes of macroeconomic regulation and control.

According to the data released by the central bank in October, "the balance of RMB deposits is 70 trillion and 90 billion yuan", the deposit reserve ratio will be increased by 0.5 percentage points.

It is intended to guard against hot money.

Judging from the current operation of the national economy, the momentum of inflation is clearly heating up, and the prices of raw materials, such as agricultural products, food and industry, are rising rapidly.

Zhang Ping, director of the national development and Reform Commission, said in November 9th that the CPI of this year is slightly higher than that of 3%. After the NDRC stressed many times, "the target of price control within 3% this year is no problem".

According to sources from the CBRC, commercial banks in October increased more than expected credit.

Dacheng Fund believes that three causes the deposit reserve ratio to rise.

First, the central bank once again raised the deposit reserve ratio, which was aimed at some banks' abundant liquidity and abnormal placement in 8 and September.

This adjustment is also a response to Zhou Xiaochuan's "pool of hot money".

Second, the current pressure of inflation is still the most concerned factor in the market. From the analysis of the existing data, the monthly growth rate of inflation will reach 7%, which is also a relatively rare level in history.

Third, the recent depreciation of the United States dollar has increased, the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB has increased, causing more foreign hot money, and the central bank is intended to use this to prevent hot money.

Zhao Qingming, senior manager of China Construction Bank Research Department, said that the central bank raised the deposit reserve rate by releasing two signals. One is to raise the flag of reserve after raising interest rates, which shows a resolute attitude of intolerance to inflation.

The two is to control the scale of credit next year, and he thinks that the size of the new loan 7 trillion and 500 billion will basically be guaranteed this year. However, in the context of the pressure of hot money inflow, the central bank's tightening of bank liquidity will prevent next year's credit growth from exceeding expectations.

It is expected that interest rates will increase during the year.

Washington (reporter Su Manli) in October 11th, the central bank in the face of inflation momentum, raised the deposit reserve ratio of six banks 0.5 percentage points.

In October 20th, the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in the year.

In November 10th, it announced the increase of the deposit reserve ratio.

In a short month, the central bank has tightened three times, and the signs of monetary policy returning to normal have become very obvious.

Some experts predict that in the context of CPI's continuous upsurge, there may be interest rate hikes during the year.

However, some experts believe that in the context of continued inflow of hot money, caution should be taken in raising interest rates.

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Zhang Jing, a researcher at the National Banking Association, said that if CPI continued to rise in the next few months, it would not rule out the two increase in interest rates during the year.

Guo Tianyong, a professor at Central University of Finance and Economics, holds the same view. He predicts that CPI will reach a new high in October, which is likely to reach 4% and above. There will be at least another interest rate increase in the year. We should also observe the November economic data. If inflation continues to rise, it will not exclude two interest rates in the year.

Zhao Qingming, senior manager of China Construction Bank Research Department, said that the current high inflation rate in China is mainly due to excess liquidity caused by hot money inflow. If continuous interest rates are raised, hot money will pour into the Chinese market and increase the difficulty of macro-control.

Guotai Junan research report pointed out that the current domestic economy and inflation trend is still upward, especially since entering November, the Ministry of Commerce's food and production information price index is still rising, making management more and more likely to raise interest rates in the light of inflationary pressure.

However, because the keynote of China's monetary policy is still moderately relaxed, whether the interest rate will rise again in the year is still to be revised again at the central economic work conference held in early December.

To tighten the signal and slump financial real estate stocks

Washington (reporter Wu Min) the reserve requirement rate and the upward trend of the one-year central bank rate show that the central bank is determined to tighten liquidity further.

In the stock market, financial stocks and real estate stocks have been hit.

On Tuesday, the central bank raised the yield of one-year central bank votes in the open market operation, which rose from 2.2913% in the past two weeks to 2.3437%. This is the first time that the central bank has raised interest rates after the interest rate increase has led to a one-year central bank interest rate rise.

Yesterday morning, the central bank intends to raise the deposit reserve ratio of some banks, which again triggered investors' concerns about tightening liquidity.

For example, the financial index of the above cards decreased by 1.91% yesterday, and the 4 most recent trading days have been cloudy. The central bank's interest rate has dropped 1.99% on the same day.

The tightening of liquidity signals also dealt a heavy blow to property stocks, and the fall of property shares also began on Tuesday.

Take the Shenzhen property index as an example, the index fell 2.01% on Tuesday, down 2.48% again yesterday.

Take the leading stock Vanke A as an example, the last two trading days have fallen 7.6%, while Poly Real Estate and investment real estate have dropped more than 8% in the recent two days.

With the central bank raising interest rates, differential reserve ratio and a series of initiatives, A shares sellers' institutions have generally adjusted their expectations of credit policies. In October, most brokerages such as Guotai Junan were optimistic that new credit in 2011 could reach 8 trillion to 9 trillion, while most brokerages in November reduced the figure to 6 trillion to 6 trillion and 500 billion.

Although the stock market has maintained a rally, bond fund managers and bank traders seem to expect to raise interest rates again.

A bond fund manager of a Shanghai fund company points out that from the trend of the bond market, traders generally expect to raise interest rates.

A bond investment manager of a Shenzhen securities company pointed out that the expectations of bond traders have begun to be reflected in the stock market. "If it is not the expectation of raising interest rates, the stock market should not be the point after 3000."

He said.