Monetary Policy Tightening May Accelerate

In November 11th, Central Bank According to published data, RMB loans increased by 587 billion 700 million yuan in October. 601328.SH/03328.HK issued a research report that credit growth is relatively fast and is expected to increase. monetary policy The pace of tightening may accelerate, and the overall tone will turn from moderate easing to sound.

New additions in October Renminbi loan 587 billion 700 million yuan, a decrease of 7 billion 800 million yuan compared with September, but increased by 334 billion 700 million yuan compared with the same period last year. In the case of "eleven" long holiday factors leading to fewer days of actual lending in the month, new loans in October remained basically unchanged from last month. Bank analysts believe that this shows that more loans were put in that month. Although this reflects the impulse of bank lending, the main reason is that the credit demand of the real economy is very strong at present.

In October, new RMB loans increased by nearly 6 trillion and 900 billion yuan, exceeding the annual credit target of 91%. Traffic analysis pointed out that although the credit demand of the real economy is relatively strong, but in the recent reserve rate again increased, regulatory authorities have increased the intensity of regulation, the remaining two months within the next year, the possibility of a significant increase in new credit is not very high, the annual new loans may be slightly higher than the target value of 7 trillion and 500 billion.

At the same time, the bank also expects that, considering the strong credit demand of the real economy in the future, the pressure of foreign capital inflow is still large. In the short term, the reserve ratio may also be adjusted again to tighten liquidity, and the possibility of changing the reserve requirement rate again is also very great.

In addition, the growth rate of CPI in October was higher than that of the previous year, and the real negative interest rate remained the same. According to the bank analysis, under the condition of more stable economic growth and higher pressure of price increase, the macro-control has been tilted against inflation, and the benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan has increased again in the year or early next year.