In October This Year, The Boom In Cotton Prices In The International Market Continued.

　　 International market October Cotton spot , futures prices Continue to rise sharply. Global year cotton The expected coexistence of increased production and insufficient production will affect cotton prices continue to fluctuate at high levels in the first two months of this year.

Affected by floods and floods in Pakistan, the continued decline in global cotton inventories in 2010/11, and the pulling effect of collective agricultural prices, the price of cotton in the international market has increased rapidly since mid July. In August and September, the UK outlook index increased by 7.36% and 15.92% respectively, while the US cotton futures price rose by 8.34% and 11.49% respectively. Cotton prices continued to rise sharply in October, and the average monthly price of the UK Outlook Index and the US cotton futures were 127 cents / pound, 113 cents / pound, respectively, up 20.83% and 16.88% respectively, up 89.39% and 72.83% respectively compared with the same period last year. In October 26th, the price rose to the highest price of 147 cents / pound, 130 cents / pound respectively, compared with the 76.68% in July and 68.48% in the mid July.

From the supply side, the world cotton output has risen sharply this year, and the cotton harvest in the northern hemisphere is in the harvest period. The amount of resources listed on the market has a certain inhibitory effect on the rising cotton prices. At the same time, the shortage of production and the continuous decline of inventory will still have an impact on cotton prices. It is estimated that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in a high level in the first two months of this year.

(1) cotton production has increased significantly, and is at a time of centralization, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on the continuous rise of cotton prices.

The US Department of Agriculture reports that global cotton production is 25 million 410 thousand tonnes in 2010/11 (beginning in September 2010), an increase of 15.12% over the previous year, and the rate of output reduction for three consecutive years has changed, which is basically the same as the average annual output since 2004/05. The main production country, the United States output is 4 million 110 thousand tons, increase 54.82%; India output is 5 million 660 thousand tons, increase 12.07%; Brazil output is 1 million 520 thousand tons, increase 30.85%. Global cotton production has increased substantially, and supply and demand has improved. At the time of the cotton harvest in the northern hemisphere, the volume of listed resources can meet short-term market demand, and cotton prices continue to rise.

(two) consumption will increase and inventory decline will support cotton prices. As the overall growth of the global economy is getting better, cotton consumption needs to pick up. World cotton consumption is projected to be 26 million 300 thousand tonnes in 2010/11, basically recovering to the level of consumption before the global financial crisis. It is only behind 2006/07 and 2007/08 consumption in history, an increase of 2.57% compared with the previous year. Judging from the relationship between production and demand, cotton production has increased substantially, but compared with demand, there is still a gap of 890 thousand tons. In the fifth consecutive year, insufficient production is needed, and inventory needs to be remedied. The global cotton stocks will continue to decline. It is estimated that the end of world cotton inventory in 2010/11 will drop to 9 million 720 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.94%, the lowest level in nearly six years. The inventory consumption ratio was 37%, the lowest level since 1996. Because of the shortage of production and the decline in inventory, the price of its support is unlikely to show a sharp decline.

(three) speculation in speculative funds will increase the price fluctuation of cotton. Since July this year, the adverse climate of some major agricultural products in Europe and America and Asia has brought uncertainty to future supply. Speculative funds have taken this opportunity to pour into the agricultural futures market. The New York futures exchange data show that as at the end of October, cotton futures non commercial positions are 74758 hands, which is 30340 higher than that in the middle of July. The speculation of speculative funds will also increase the fluctuation of cotton prices.