PTA's Unilateral Rally Ended &Nbsp, And Deep Fall Was Unlikely.
After four trading days, 11 days.
PTA price
Finally stopped the pace of the rush, the volume of the long line.
The increase in reserve ratio and high domestic inflation exacerbated the market's concerns about further tightening of policy, thus reducing the atmosphere of market making. However, the early morning limit of cotton made investors feel a certain degree of panic, thereby affecting the PTA trend that has a relatively high correlation with cotton prices.
In view of the long duration of this round of increase, the technical adjustment requirements are very strong, and the tightening of policy is likely to cause a wide oscillation in the PTA period price.
Domestic continuous regulation intensifies market tightening expectations
On the evening of 10, the central bank announced that the deposit reserve ratio should be increased by 0.5 percentage points. At this point, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate for two times in one month, raising the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate at a time. The intensity of its control action shows the government's strong concern about inflation.
As inflation continues to rise, the risk of runaway inflation has replaced the soaring price of real estate as the biggest uncertainty in the current domestic economy.
In the three major monetary policy instruments, such as reserve ratio, interest rate and exchange rate, raising interest rates can modify the distortions of negative interest rates on residents and enterprises. Raising the reserve ratio helps to cope with the excessive liquidity in the interbank market, and the appreciation of the exchange rate can partly resist the import type.
inflation
The problem.
When the central bank's policy signal to control inflation has been invented, the rate of reserve ratio, interest rate and exchange rate have become an important policy choice gradually. Three.
Although the government may adopt more administrative means to control inflation in the short term to balance the inflow of foreign hot money, the possibility of raising interest rates still exists, and the market's anticipation of further tightening monetary policy is gradually taking shape. The impact of this expectation on the PTA and other varieties, which are already at a high level, is self-evident.
Cotton prices fall
market
Do more emotion
As the dazzling star in the current round of futures price rise, the impact of cotton price trend on current commodity market sentiment and capital flows is imaginable.
The continuous rise of PTA in the early stage was mainly due to the rise in the price of PTA downstream products caused by soaring cotton prices.
Comparing cotton price and PTA period price, PTA price basically keeps the same state as cotton price. Therefore, the way to adjust PTA later depends largely on cotton price trend.
In terms of technology, cotton has basically not been properly adjusted since the beginning of September, and the sharp rise is destined to start in a more intense way once the callback is launched, which is evident from the 11 day limit of cotton price.
However, due to the short supply and tight fundamentals of cotton in the short term, it will be difficult to change.
Therefore, investors should be psychologically prepared for the impact of the late PTA adjustment process.
Monetary easing is still leading the market for some time to come.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the implementation of the global quantitative easing policy has provided conditions for the spread of liquidity. Recently, the second round of quantitative easing launched by the Federal Reserve to further stimulate the economy has again injected vitality into the global liquidity.
According to the Federal Reserve's announcement, the United States will move forward in the second quarter of 2011 to buy a longer term treasury bond of US $600 billion, and will maintain the benchmark interest rate of the federal funds unchanged from 0 to 0.25%.
Under the influence of the US leadership, other major developed countries are also competing to follow suit. The European Central Bank has announced that it will continue to maintain a 1% interest rate unchanged and will decide whether to initiate a new exit policy next month. The Bank of Japan announced the continuation of the zero interest rate policy and decided to start using new funds to buy treasury bonds next week.
Under the background of global liquidity easing, the situation of domestic capital adequacy is difficult to change in the short term. High inflation will continue in the coming period. This will become an important factor to support the high price of PTA.
On the whole, PTA's unilateral rising pattern is basically affected by the panic brought about by the policy tightening expectations and the sharp fall in the leading varieties.
However, in the context of the global loose liquidity pattern will continue to maintain, the possibility of its deep decline is not large.
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