PTA Unilateral Rise Ended&Nbsp; There Is Little Possibility Of Deep Decline

　　 After going through four trading limits PTA price Finally, he stopped the pace of upward movement and drew back the long line. The increase in the reserve ratio and the high domestic inflation have intensified the market's concern about further tightening of policies, thus dampening the market's bullish atmosphere; The early limit decline of cotton made investors panic to a certain extent, and then affected the PTA trend with high correlation with cotton prices. In view of the long duration of this round of rise, the technical adjustment requirements are very strong, and the tightening of policies is likely to lead to wide fluctuations in PTA futures prices.

　　 Domestic continuous regulation aggravates the expectation of market contraction

On the evening of the 10th, the central bank announced that it would raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. So far, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio twice and raised the benchmark interest rate of deposits and loans once within a month. The intensity of its regulation action shows the government's strong concern about inflation. With the continuous rise of inflation, the risk of runaway inflation has replaced the rapid rise of real estate prices and become the biggest uncertainty factor in the current domestic economy. Among the three major monetary policy tools, namely, reserve ratio, interest rate and exchange rate, interest rate increase can correct the distortion of negative interest rate on the behavior of residents and enterprises, increase the reserve ratio can help to deal with excessive liquidity in the interbank market, and exchange rate appreciation can partially resist the import type inflation Problems. When the central bank's policy signal of controlling inflation becomes clearer, the simultaneous movement of reserve ratio, interest rate and exchange rate has gradually become an important policy choice. Although the government may use more administrative means to control inflation in order to balance the inflow rate of foreign hot money in the short term, the possibility of raising interest rates still exists, and the market's expectation of further tightening monetary policy is gradually forming, which is self-evident for the impact of the formation of such expectations on PTA and other varieties that are already at a high level.

Impact of falling cotton price market Long Emotion

As a shining star in the current round of futures price rise, the trend of cotton price has a predictable impact on the current commodity market sentiment and capital flow. The continuous rise of PTA in the early stage was mainly formed under the condition that the price of PTA downstream products rose sharply due to the soaring cotton price. Compared with the cotton price and the PTA price, the PTA price basically keeps pace with the cotton price, so how to adjust the PTA in the later period depends largely on the trend of the cotton price. From the technical point of view, there has been basically no decent adjustment in the rise of cotton since the beginning of September, and the sharp rise doomed that once it started the callback, it will be carried out in a more violent way to a large extent, which can be seen from the limit fall of cotton price on the 11th. However, because it is difficult to change the fundamentals of tight supply and demand of cotton in the short term, its decline will still occur repeatedly. Therefore, investors should be prepared for the impact of PTA adjustment in the later period.

Monetary easing pattern will still dominate the market for some time in the future

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the implementation of the global quantitative easing policy has provided conditions for the overflow of liquidity, and the recent second round of quantitative easing policy restarted by the Federal Reserve to further stimulate the economy has once again injected vitality into global liquidity. According to the announcement of the Federal Reserve, the United States will further purchase US $600 billion of long-term treasury bonds in the second quarter of 2011, and will maintain the benchmark federal funds interest rate in the range of 0 - 0.25%. Under the influence of the United States, other major developed countries also rushed to follow suit. The European Central Bank announced that it would continue to keep the 1% leading interest rate unchanged and would decide whether to launch a new exit policy next month; The Bank of Japan announced that it would continue to implement the zero interest rate policy in essence, and decided to use the newly established fund to purchase government bonds next week. Against the backdrop of loose global liquidity, it is difficult to change the situation of abundant domestic funds in the short term. High inflation will continue in the future, which will become an important factor supporting the high price operation of PTA.

　　 On the whole, PTA's unilateral rise pattern has basically come to an end under the influence of the panic caused by the expectation of policy tightening and the sharp decline of early leading varieties. However, against the background that the global liquidity easing pattern will continue to be maintained, it is unlikely that it will fall in depth.