Guotai Junan: Cotton Leads The Price Of Agricultural Products

　　 Guotai Junan The latest research report said that in the weak dollar and loose monetary policy The environment is optimistic about the prices of agricultural products. This month the pig grain ratio reached 6.64, the highest value after the Spring Festival. With the advent of the winter consumption season, it is expected to further increase. The agricultural products market has gone out of the strong trend in the past month, and the foreign market increased by an average of 16.34%, of which cotton rose by 41.12%, raw sugar increased by 25.80%, and the domestic market increased by 11.57%, the same as that of cotton and raw sugar increased by 29% and 26.43% respectively.

We should remain optimistic about the prices of agricultural products. Guotai Junan believes that gold has a natural advantage over agricultural products and is the best tool to resist inflation. Agriculture products This is not the core of this asset price bubble, but it must be able to share the corresponding price increase caused by the expansion of the bubble.

　　 Henan has the least cotton planting area in 30 years.

As cotton prices continue to soar and have been refreshed for the past 10 years, the cotton situation forum, hosted by the Henan Cotton Association, was recently held in Zhengzhou. Representatives from key cotton business enterprises, cotton textile enterprises, Henan supply and marketing cooperative society and relevant department heads attended the forum. In recent years, cotton planting area in Henan has shrunk dramatically, and in 2010 it has dropped to its lowest level in 30 years. In view of the declining cotton growing area and soaring cotton prices, the delegates suggested that a long-term mechanism for stable development of cotton production should be established, investment in cotton production should be increased, the minimum purchase price for seed cotton protection should be implemented, policy adjustment and control should be strengthened, cotton quotas and cotton reserves sold in a timely manner to stabilize cotton prices. A variety of factors have led to a decline in cotton planting area.

Han Aitao, deputy director of Henan Statistical Bureau, said that cotton plays an important role in the economic development of Henan Province, but in recent years, the cotton planting area in Henan has shrunk dramatically. In 1978, it was 9 million 180 thousand mu, 12 million 340 thousand mu in 1990, 18 million 720 thousand mu in 1992, and 7 million mu in 2010, which has dropped to the lowest level in 30 years.

"The reason is not only related to the adjustment policy of the national crop production structure, the reform of the cotton circulation system and the entry of WTO, but also closely related to the outflow of rural labor, the change of cotton yield and the production characteristics of cotton itself. These factors have contributed to the decline of cotton planting area in Henan.

Han Aitao analysis believes that one is affected by the policy system. Since 1996, the state has adopted the policy of restricting cotton development, resulting in the rapid reduction of cotton planting area in major cotton producing provinces except Xinjiang. Two, it is influenced by the international competitive environment. After joining the WTO, import cotton increased rapidly, domestic cotton prices fell, cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton was frustrated, and cotton planting area declined. Three, under the impact of the international financial crisis, domestic textile exports were blocked, production capacity was compressed, cotton market was sluggish, cotton prices fell, and cotton production in Henan was shrinking. The four is the strong labor intensity and low yield. According to the survey, the net income of cotton seed in 2009 was only 434 yuan. Grain income increased, seed cotton income declined, farmers refused to grow cotton. Five, the structure of rural labor force has changed. There are nearly 20 million migrant workers in rural areas of Henan province. Most of the cotton producers at home are old people, women and weak people. This part of people's culture is low, and the recognition and acceptance ability of new cotton planting technology is poor, which can not meet the needs of high-yield cultivation and management of cotton. Six, the cotton market is running unstable, increasing the volatility of cotton prices and further shrinking the local cotton market. The seven is frequent disasters and high risk of cotton planting. Excessive excessive growth implies great risks.

"Cotton rose to 30000 yuan / ton, I did not expect that the high price of cotton for such a long time did not expect the government to take so many regulatory policies." Li Minghong, chairman of Nanyang Tianjiao Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., at one breath, said three "unexpectedly". He introduced that Tianjiao cotton company has set up 10 cotton purchase points, and the price of seed cotton is 11.6 yuan / kg, and the amount of cotton purchased is very few, and its moisture content is large and its lint percentage is low. Cotton is like "hot potato". As a cotton enterprise, it is difficult to operate. It only needs to adjust its structure, shrink its size, reduce its inventory, and rush ahead quickly.

Henan Chun Cheng cotton and hemp Co., Ltd. Chairman Pan Chun province said that the grain and cotton ratio 1: 8 is a reasonable price, cotton prices rise has its rationality. However, excessive excessive growth implies great risks. Now, millions of cotton producing counties in Henan can not be found. Cotton resources are in short supply. Cotton supply will not meet in May next year. How can we meet the needs of cotton spinning enterprises?

Jia Zhaomin, deputy director of Henan Provincial Bureau of silk inspection, said that through the investigation in Nanyang, the main cotton producing area, the overall impression of this year's new cotton is "three high and three low", that is, the price is high, the moisture content is high, the cotton short staple rate is high, the output is low, the quality is low, and the lint percentage is low. Nanyang's new cotton output this year is less than 50 thousand tons, and most of them are 4 grade cotton, 3 grade cotton is very few, and the lint percentage is about 35, so the situation is not optimistic.

"According to the cotton planting area in Henan this year and the rainy weather in the middle and September, it is estimated that the cotton output in the province will reach 40~50 million tons, much less than in previous years." Liu Xiaofeng, director of the Cotton Office of the Henan Provincial Department of agriculture, believes that Henan's cotton industry should "grasp the big belt and develop the new area, push ahead with the withdrawal and develop the two industries." To grasp the big belt is to catch Zhoukou, Nanyang, Shangqiu, Kaifeng and other large cotton producing areas, and promote the North Henan residential area. The development of new areas means developing along the Yellow River and Lingbao, Gongyi and Xingyang; pushing forward and pulling back, and pushing forward the interplanting of high-efficient economic crops such as cotton and garlic and small watermelon. The withdrawal is to remove cotton after planting after the wheat harvest and implement the transplanting of big seedlings; the two development is to develop mechanized planting and scale operation. Cotton prices should be protected so that cotton farmers can be "reassured". It is estimated that cotton planting area will increase greatly in Henan next year. Rational response to rising cotton prices

Zhengzhou four cotton Chairman Ma Zhou Cun, assistant general manager of Hebi Tong FA textile company, Yang Liancun, the representative of the Jiaozuo cotton textile company's original cotton manager, Qi Yue cotton textile enterprise, said that the cotton price rises too fast, and the speed is too fast to transmit to the downstream. It has caused great pressure to cotton textile enterprises, and the orders are afraid to meet.

Bi Baoshan, chairman of Henan China Industrial Corporation and Huang Lijun, chairman of Nanyang cotton cotton industry group, said that the risk of cotton running at high level is bound to manifest. It is only a matter of time. Enterprises should not follow suit, do not hype, carefully grasp and guard against risks.

Meng Shaohui, President of Henan Cotton Association, believes that the increase in cotton prices will be affected by increasing cotton planting costs, widening the gap between grain and cotton prices, reducing cotton farmers' income, reducing cotton planting area, expanding production and demand gap, and other factors. However, it is not normal for cotton prices to soar to more than 32000 yuan / ton in a short time. There is a huge risk here. As a cotton enterprise, we should analyze calmly, rationally cope with it and guard against risks. At the same time, we should do everything possible to ensure cotton textile enterprises' demand for cotton.