PTA Or High Oscillation After Fever.

Last week, China

Price is the monetary value of commodity value. The price fluctuation of any commodity is closely related to money supply.

Since 2009, the overall rise in domestic commodity prices has nothing to do with the 2009 domestic efforts to stimulate the economy to put money into large quantities.

Central bank data show that in late 10, China's new loans amounted to 587 billion 700 million yuan, and the balance of broad money (M2) was 69 trillion and 980 billion yuan, an increase of 19.3% over the same period last year. The domestic money supply was 180% of GDP, and domestic liquidity was extremely abundant.

In October, domestic CPI reached a new high of 4.4% over the past two years. The central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points. This indicates that the central bank's monetary policy is shifting from moderate easing to moderate tightening. In view of the rising domestic inflation pressure, the possibility of increasing interest rates at the end of this year or the first half of next year is greater.

However, although the central bank has taken the action of raising the deposit reserve ratio and raising interest rates this year, the liquidity of the export oriented economy and capital and trade has decided that the central bank should take the initiative to collect liquidity in a passive way, which will hardly change the current state of sufficient liquidity in the country.

At the same time, the United States is still in the implementation period of quantitative easing policy. The weak dollar will still support the high price of international commodity prices. However, due to the shift of China's monetary policy and the increase in the price regulation of some domestic commodities by the NDRC, some of the speculation funds will be scruples.

Short term market still needs to digest liquidity and tighten expectations.

Careful consideration of the pmission of PTA raw materials to textile and clothing terminals

Because of the low price of polyester polyester in the downstream of PTA compared with other textile raw materials, and the acceleration of some textile raw materials prices in the second half of this year, the demand for polyester substitution in textile and garment market appears, especially the substitution effect for cotton is more obvious.

From the perspective of the pmission of PTA price in polyester industry chain, the conduction of PTA upstream and downstream is relatively smooth.

First of all, in addition to the low gross profit of polyester chips in the downstream of PTA, polyester filament and polyester staple are in the profiteering that has not been seen for many years, especially polyester and cotton which have the substitution effect with cotton.

Last week, the collapse of PTA and glycol prices led to a further increase in polyester product margins.

Up to the end of last week, the gross profit of polyester staple fiber was as high as 7000 yuan, and that of polyester filament POY, FDY and TDY amounted to 4000-6000 yuan, while the gross profit of polyester chip which was once close to loss was restored to more than 2000 yuan at the beginning of.

Secondly, the recent PTA upstream PX also fluctuates with PTA ups and downs.

The price difference between PX and MX is maintained at around us $200 / ton, indicating that PX manufacturers also enjoy a better gross margin.

However, in the short term, there is a certain pressure on the pmission of raw materials from the polyester chain to the weaving and weaving industry. It is reported that the production of looms has also been reduced after the production of polyester chips has been cut down.

The main factor affecting the PTA demand in the future is whether the price of raw materials brought by PTA can successfully pmit to the terminal textile and garment. This is also one of the main factors that affect the development of PTA market.

As raw materials for textile and garment raw materials are usually three months ahead of schedule, domestic raw materials such as cotton and polyester fibers began to accelerate in 9 and October.

In addition, since September 2010, the RMB has begun to accelerate appreciation. Therefore, at the beginning of next year, the domestic textile and garment enterprises may encounter double pressures of rising raw material prices and RMB appreciation.

At the same time, in the face of soaring prices of raw materials and appreciation of the renminbi, some textile and garment export enterprises have been afraid to take long orders, and the enterprises' orders are mainly short and medium.

However, due to the exuberant domestic demand for China's textile and clothing, the annual appreciation of RMB is within the range of 3% of the textile and clothing, and 17% of the export tax rebate protection. It is expected that the PTA terminal textile and garment resuscitation trend will not change. We can take a careful look at the pmission of PTA raw materials to the terminal textile and clothing.

PTA short term supply pressure rises

At the beginning of November, the 1 million 200 thousand ton PTA unit of the Far East petrochemical company had a sudden failure, and the operation rate was reduced to 50%. About half of the contract supply was affected. After that, Zhejiang Yisheng and Jilong Petrochemical also closed their 2 unit 550 thousand ton / year and 600 thousand tons / a year's factory for a week or so.

In addition, the East Asian regional platform and Taiwan East Exhibition respectively carried out a 2-3 week overhaul of its PTA plant with an annual output of 700 thousand tons and 440 thousand tons in the early November. At the same time, it also overhauled the short-term maintenance of PTA devices with 1 million 100 thousand tons of No. 3 and 4 of South Korea three, and half month maintenance of 1 300 thousand tons.

A 450 thousand ton facility in Thailand, Southeast Asia, was also serviced for a week in early November.

In November, some PTA installations in South Asia and India were also scheduled for overhaul, but the capacity of PTA was significantly less than that of the East Asian region in the early part of the month.

As a result, the whole plant maintenance and fault shutdown in Asia in November were relatively large, and the supply was tight. However, the supply pressure of PTA increased in the short term, considering the gradual reboot of the device at the beginning of the month.

In addition, we need to pay attention to that, with the development of PTA enterprises' integration and the increase of capacity concentration, PTA contract goods sales mode has become the mainstream. PTA enterprises already have a certain ability to regulate PTA supply.

For the post market outlook of PTA, based on the adequacy of domestic liquidity, the conduction of PTA downstream to the terminal textile and clothing, and the comprehensive consideration of domestic PTA production and supply, the author believes that PTA futures are likely to turn into high oscillation after short-term adjustment. On the operation, it is suggested that investors should be cautious in holding high positions and keep low profits in batches. Short term partial oscillation trading is the main form and wait for the market to become stable. The 1105 contract market can pay close attention to 9600, 9000 line support and 10000, 12000 front-line pressure.