This Year'S Economic Growth Is Up To 10%.
In the fourth quarter of this year, China is mainly
Macro economy
Most indicators will be better, consumption will maintain rapid growth, gross domestic product (GDP) and fixed asset investment growth will decline steadily, which is in line with macroeconomic regulation and control.
price index
Beyond the target of regulation, but still within the scope of social affordability, the momentum of excessive real estate prices has been curbed.
Initially forecast, the fourth quarter GDP growth of 8.7%, consumer price (CPI) rose 3.8%.
Throughout the year,
Economic growth
It is expected to reach 10%, more than the historical average growth rate since the reform and opening up.
Fourth quarter, the power of economic independent growth is enhanced, and the three major demands have more coordinated effects on the economy.
However, the growth rate of the economy will be further reduced due to the complex and changeable world economic environment, the expansion of domestic capacity to restrain the high capacity industry, the relaxation of real estate regulation, the inflationary pressure and the increase in the number of bases in the same period last year.
Initially forecast, the fourth quarter GDP growth of 8.7%, the growth rate is 0.9 percentage points lower than the three quarter, the annual cumulative economic growth of 10%, higher than last year 0.9 percentage points, also higher than the average growth rate of 30 years.
Although the economic growth in the four quarter has slowed down compared with the three quarter, it does not mean that the economy is cooling down. We should have an objective understanding of the four quarter economic growth.
First of all, the fourth quarter economic slowdown is the result of China's initiative to adjust the industrial structure, increase energy conservation and emission reduction and eliminate backward production capacity.
Second, China's economic growth momentum and expectations remain strong.
China's PMI index increased to 54.7% in September, a nearly 6 month high. In the three quarter, the entrepreneur's confidence index was 135.9, which was 2.9 points higher than that in the two quarter, indicating that the growth prospect of manufacturing industry is good.
Third, the fourth quarter of last year has a high base.
In the three quarter, the economy changed from rapid recovery to steady growth.
Since the beginning of this year, facing the complex and changeable economic environment at home and abroad, our country has continued to implement the package plan to cope with the impact of the international financial crisis, targeted and strengthened macroeconomic regulation and control, actively promoted the pformation of economic development mode and structural adjustment, and further strengthened the momentum of economic recovery, and the national economy has been developing towards the expected direction of macroeconomic regulation and control.
In the three quarter, China's economy turned from a rapid recovery to a steady growth, but the foundation for sustained economic growth was more stable.
1, economic operation has changed from rapid recovery to steady growth.
In the first three quarters of this year, China's overall economic performance was in good shape. In the one or two and three quarters, GDP grew by 11.9%, 10.3% and 9.6% respectively.
The reason why the growth rate has slowed down is: first, the impact of the quarterly increase of base year by year, two is the result of the state's active macro-control.
The state has issued macro-control policies such as curbing excessive housing prices, strengthening energy conservation and emission reduction, and standardizing the financing platform of local governments. The economy has changed from rapid recovery to steady growth, but the foundation for sustained economic improvement is more stable.
2, the speed of industrial production and the efficiency of enterprises have increased rapidly, and the effect of structural adjustment is prominent.
In the 1-10 month, the industrial added value of the above scale industries increased by 16.1% over the same period last year, 6.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and the substantial increase in industrial growth is the most important driving force for economic recovery.
Under the constraint of energy conservation and emission reduction targets, industrial restructuring has made positive progress.
Industrial operation has the following characteristics:
First, industrial growth has maintained a relatively fast pace.
Last year, the industrial growth rate showed a trend of low and high growth. The growth rate in October was 5.4 percentage points higher than that in June. However, the industrial growth rate basically remained at 13%-14% in 6-10 this year. There was no obvious increase in the growth rate of the base.
The two is the substantial increase in industrial economic efficiency.
In the 1-8 month, the industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a profit of 26005 billion yuan, an increase of 55%, an increase of 65.6 percentage points over the same period last year.
In the 39 categories of industries, the profits of 36 industries increased year by year, of which the profit of oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 93.2%, the ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry increased by 99.7%, the non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry increased 1.3 times, the pportation equipment manufacturing industry grew 80.7%, and the electricity and thermal production and supply industry increased 1.2 times.
The three is the growth rate of high load energy industry.
This year, local governments increased energy conservation and emission reduction. Some high energy consumption and high pollution industries were eliminated or substantially compressed, and the growth rate of high energy industries fell by quarter.
In the three quarter, the industrial added value of the six high load industries increased by 10.5%, down 4.6 percentage points from 15.1% in the two quarter, 3 percentage points lower than that in the current quarter.
3, investment growth has steadily dropped slightly, and government investment in new projects has been controlled.
In the first three quarters, investment in fixed assets of the whole society increased by 24%. In 1-10 months, investment in fixed assets in cities increased by 24.4%, an increase of 9.4 and 8.7 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.
Under the guidance of the State Council's "new non public 36" policies and related measures, government investment gradually fade out, and the role of private investment is enhanced.
In 1-10 months, the total investment in new project plans fell from 83% to 23.8% from the same period of last year.
The growth and proportion of government investment dropped significantly. In 1-10 months, state-owned and state holding investment increased by 19.2%, down 19.8 percentage points compared to the same period. The proportion of state-owned and state-controlled investment in total investment was 41.6%, down 1.8 percentage points from the same period last year.
In the 1-10 month, private investment increased by 28.5%, which was 9.3 percentage points higher than that of state-owned investment.
4, expand consumption policies, improve employment and accelerate consumption growth.
The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 125313 billion yuan in 1-10 months, a nominal increase of 18.3%, a 0.1 percentage point increase over the first half of the year, a 3 percentage point increase over the same period last year, a real growth rate of 15.1%, faster than the average growth rate of 0.4 percentage points in the recent 3 years.
The reasons for the acceleration of consumption demand are: the policies of the state to stimulate consumption of automobiles and household appliances still play an important role in promoting the sales of the consumer market; in 1-9, 9 million 310 thousand new jobs were made in cities and towns nationwide, 103% of the total 9 million people were completed, the registered unemployment rate of urban areas was 4.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the end of the two quarter, and the increase in employment promoted the growth of income and consumption. Since this year, the increase of wages for retirees, 20% of the minimum wage standards in 30 provinces and municipalities, and the support policies of "three rural" have played a supporting role in the increase of consumption.
5, the recovery growth of foreign trade is better than expected, the policy fine-tuning has improved the export structure.
In 1-10 months, China's total exports amounted to 12706 billion US dollars, an increase of 32.7%; total imports of 11228 billion US dollars, an increase of 40.5%, and the growth rate of imports and exports both fell somewhat in the first half of the year.
In order to curb the excessive upward trend of energy consumption caused by the export of high energy products, the state has abolished the export tax rebates of 406 kinds of high energy products since July 15th, and played a fine role in improving the export structure.
In the 1-9 month, the export of high-tech products increased by 36%. In September, the exports of 406 "two high" products decreased by 12.9%, and the export scale decreased by 60.4% compared with June.
The slowdown in domestic and foreign economies and the rise in the RMB exchange rate also have some effect on the slowdown in export growth in the three quarter.
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1, the growth rate of industrial production will steadily slow down slightly.
In the fourth quarter, industrial production will maintain steady growth, and its promotion factors include: (1) industrial leading index and entrepreneurs' confidence.
In 8, 9, and October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) continued to rise, and in the three quarter, the entrepreneur confidence index also reached a high level.
(2) substantial improvement in industrial efficiency has contributed to increasing investment and expanding production for enterprises.
(3) commodity consumption has increased rapidly. Sales of consumer goods, clothing, shoes, hats, daily necessities, gold and silver jewelry and other consumer goods have been in good condition in 1-10 months. The growth rate has remained at 25%-40%. The growth of consumer demand in the fourth quarter has not been reduced. Light industry will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth.
The fourth quarter restraining industrial growth factors: (1) fourth quarter countries will increase energy conservation and emission reduction and eliminate backward production capacity, strictly enforce the real estate regulation policy, will have different aspects of heavy industry inhibition.
(2) the world economy is still in a difficult position in the fourth quarter, and the export growth in the four quarter will be significantly reduced, which will affect the growth of export enterprises' production.
(3) industrial growth in the fourth quarter of last year was 17.9%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points over the three quarter, and the increase in base would affect the industrial growth in the four quarter.
It is initially estimated that the industrial added value of above scale industries will increase by 11.6% in the fourth quarter, and the growth rate will slow down by 4.7 percentage points over the first three quarters.
The cumulative annual industrial growth of 14.9% was 3.9 percentage points higher than that of last year, higher than the average growth rate of 0.3 percentage points in the recent 10 years.
The added value of light industry and heavy industry increased by 10.6% and 12% respectively. The gap between light and heavy industries increased from 3.9 percentage points in the 1-3 quarter to 1.4 percentage points.
2, fixed asset investment growth will continue to callback.
Fourth quarter factors to promote investment growth: (1) affordable housing construction funds to enter the implementation phase.
Increasing investment in indemnificatory housing construction is an important measure of real estate regulation and control. By the end of August this year, the 69 billion 200 million yuan and the additional 10 billion yuan of affordable housing construction funds allocated by the central government have all been issued. The construction of affordable housing in the fourth quarter will further intensify, which will lead to an increase in real estate investment and related supporting investments.
(2) the new "non-public 36" will guide and stimulate the enthusiasm of private investment, and promote the speed and efficiency of investment.
(3) a number of regional revitalization plans and new strategic industrial development plans approved by the state have entered the early stage of layout.
The factors that inhibit investment growth are: (1) the central government's continued control of new projects in the plan and the regulation of local government financing platforms will make government investment shrink.
(2) since September, the real estate policy has increased the purchase order, increased the capital threshold for purchasing commercial housing, and standardized the period of land development and utilization. The real estate prices will be further suppressed, and the area of housing sales will be reduced, thus inhibiting the growth of real estate investment.
(3) monetary policy fine-tuning, such as raising interest rates, will tighten the credit financing environment and will have a certain inhibitory effect on investment.
Overall, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will continue to fall in the fourth quarter.
It is initially estimated that the total investment in fixed assets in the fourth quarter will increase by 19.2%, urban fixed assets investment will increase by 19.6%, and real estate development investment will increase by 19.9%.
3, retail sales of consumer goods show a steady upward trend.
Factors contributing to consumption growth are: (1) the rapid growth of residents' income, the expected reform of income distribution and the rising inflation rate will promote sustained consumption growth.
(2) to encourage consumption policies to continue to play a role in household appliances to the countryside and old cars to replace the old ones, and encourage the consumption policy to expire at the end of this year.
The factors that restrain consumption growth are: (1) the cooling of housing consumption has a restraining effect on the consumption of related commodities.
(2) larger price increases are not conducive to the expansion of consumption by low-income groups.
(3) the marginal effect of partial expansion of consumption is decreasing.
Comprehensive judgement, under the guidance of the policy of expanding consumer demand and sharing the fruits of economic development, the current consumption expansion cycle will not end, and consumer demand will continue to grow strongly.
Initially, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the fourth quarter increased by 18.5%, up 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year.
4, the growth rate of import and export will drop sharply.
The favorable factors for promoting export growth in the fourth quarter are: (1) the overall recovery of the world economy has helped to maintain steady growth in our foreign demand.
IMF's autumn report will increase the global economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 4.8% this year.
(2) China's electromechanical export products and traditional bulk export commodities have strong international competitiveness.
(3) implementation of RMB cross-border settlement, expanding the scope of RMB swap agreement, increasing export credit lines, expanding export insurance coverage and other "export promotion and market protection" foreign trade policies will still boost export growth.
The main factors to curb export growth in the four quarter are: (1) last year, export growth showed a marked low before and after high, and the fourth quarter growth rate increased by 22.3 percentage points over the first three quarters.
(2) the instability of foreign demand has a negative impact on exports.
The recovery process of different countries in the world is different, and the recovery of major economies such as Japan and the United States is difficult, which will inhibit China's exports in the four quarter.
(3) the recent rapid appreciation of the renminbi will have a greater impact on China's export of some small profits but quick turnover.
(4) trade protection measures have been increasing in recent years, thanks to the slow pace of economic recovery in the major developed countries and the mid-term elections in the United States.
The growth rate of imports and exports in the fourth quarter showed a marked slowdown due to the weakening of the recovery of developed countries and the impact of last year's base factors.
It is initially estimated that the fourth quarter exports will grow by 10.9%, a sharp drop of 23.1 percentage points over the 1-3 quarter, with a total export volume of 15285 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.2% over the whole year. The import growth in the four quarter is expected to be 15.3%, a drop of 27.1 percentage points over the 1-3 quarter, and the annual import volume of US $28 billion will be increased.
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