At The End Of November, Terminal Consumption Will Soon Fade, And The PTA Price Will Shift To The Middle Space.

Since November, the PTA futures market has experienced a wave of roller coaster market. The 1105 contract has withdrawn 10000 lines after losing 11750 points after the attack. In the middle line, the author believes that due to tighter policy expectations, with the passage of time to the end of November, terminal consumption will soon fade, and the PTA price will shift to the middle.

External market liquidity is still ample policy tightening expectations strong

With the explicit definition of the two quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the capital market's speculation on quantitative easing has basically come to an end.

The focus of the market began to shift. The first focus was the rise of treasury bond yields in the US financial market after the introduction of EQ2, and the low rate of LIBOR lending rate and the policy effect were not entirely consistent. Investors questioned whether EQ2 could stimulate economic growth.

The second point is that sovereign debt in some European countries is being put on the table again.

But with the start of the European rescue mechanism, yields on Irish bonds have declined since a week ago, and the problem will gradually ease.

From this time

At home, CPI reached 4.4% in October, a 0.7% increase over the same period last year, indicating that the current upward trend in prices is stronger.

In November 17th, the State Council promptly issued a series of policies and measures to stabilize consumer prices and protect the basic livelihood of the masses.

In the short term, with the large decline in the price of international agricultural products and the administrative regulation of domestic prices, it may appear that inflation is less than fast rising market inflation expectations in the short term, which may become an important factor in the market volatility.

In addition, we believe that the trend of medium-term price increases will continue, but there will still be a series of combination policies in the latter part of the central bank.

Overall, although the recent market speculation on Ireland's crisis has come to an end, the US dollar has come down again. However, with the further improvement of the US economic data, the market will gradually weaken the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's further easing measures, which will make the US dollar continue to rebound.

In view of the fact that the current market has fully overdrawn basic recovery expectations, once liquidity is expected to reverse, commodities will inevitably fall to the level of basic price.

In addition, one of the biggest driving forces of the commodity market is tightening pressure on China's monetary policy. There is bound to be a callback pressure on the commodities stimulated by China's policy portfolio, which will stimulate domestic pressure on related commodities, and PTA is inevitable.

The core of crude oil is still expected to increase PX.

NYMEX crude oil price hit $90 / barrel for the first time in early November, and then dropped $80 / barrel first line support.

We maintain our previous view.

In terms of PTA industry chain, although the spot market is showing a sharp decline, the contract goods remain high.

Asia's three leading PX suppliers and five users reached the highest level in August 2008 since they reached the November contract settlement agreement in Asia at 1220 US dollars / ton CFR.

Although the loss of PX factory in the first half of the year has seriously reduced the operating rate, but in the longer term, only 1 million tons of PX plant in Ukraine were put into operation in 2011, and the PTA production capacity is expected to be 2 million 800 thousand tons.

PTA supply and demand side is still tight, inventory processing or will impact the market.

Although the current PTA operating rate index has returned to 95, the supply and demand side is still tight.

According to CCF statistics, in 2010 1-9, the output of polyester fiber was 18 million 120 thousand and 500 tons, and the average monthly consumption of polyester was 2 million 13 thousand tons. In October, the average polyester output was 83.7%, which was higher than the average level in September.

According to CCF data, the average starting point of polyester in November 19th is 84.7%, and PTA consumption in November should be higher than 1 million 750 thousand tons.

In the early November, many sets of PTA devices were overhauled or accidentally stopped in Southern China, Zhejiang and Shanghai. In November, the supply of PTA was likely to be flat with October. This resulted in a tight supply and demand for PTA, and the reduction of contract customers by a mainstream supplier in Zhejiang is the best proof.

Overall, in the three or four quarter, at least nearly 2 million tons of polyester have been put into operation, and the production capacity of polyester is obviously faster than PTA. The supply and demand relationship between PTA in the fourth quarter of the whole year is still tight.

We still need to focus on the current PTA social inventory.

At present, the stock that surfaced is 1 million 500 thousand -180 million tons, when inventory increases to a certain extent, after all, it needs digestion.

The end of the year is the financial year of the industry chain. There will inevitably be some inventory needs to be dealt with, or will have a certain impact on the market, and the time to go inventory is likely to appear in December.

In addition, although the early spot price inflation has made the social stock recessive, with the enhancement of the national macroeconomic regulation and control, the fall of commodity prices will inevitably make the inventory pressure again revealed. With the tight liquidity of the state, the pressure of capital will also cause some stocks to flow into the market, thus changing the market expectations.

Downstream consumption gradually weakened, export ring ratio reduced

11 since the middle of the century, due to the high price of polyester and cotton, the downstream weaving enterprises have been losing their enthusiasm, and basically consumed pre inventory.

From the data of CCF, the production and sale of polyester factories decreased, the stock increased by 2-3 days, while the CCF polyester load index also dropped to 84%.

Due to the fact that the order of the circular machines in Xiaoshao area is not very rational, the opening rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has decreased to 70%, and the fabric inventory of weaving factories has increased slightly. Most of them have been in deficit operation. The new orders for downstream bombs, warp knitting machines and water looms have decreased in November, but the volume of light textile city is 6 million -700 m, and the market demand is normal.

We believe that in the short term market, there will be some support for the price of raw materials, and the downstream weaving needs a certain demand from the end of the month.

But in the medium term, because of the continuous decline of the downstream orders and the lack of purchasing power support, the polyester factory will still take the volume of shipment as the master.

In terms of exports, textile and garment exports in October 2010 amounted to US $17 billion 800 million, an increase of 21.5% over the same period last year and a decrease of 11% over the same period.

Judging from the turnover of the 108 Canton Fair, the total volume of textile and apparel sales was 4 billion 560 million US dollars, which was 2.6% lower than that of the 107 session due to the worry of exchange rate changes and the rising cost of raw materials. Among them, clothing and accessories were traded at 1 billion US dollars, down 8.5% from the 107 session.

The decline in export orders will lead to a decline in demand for cotton and cotton yarn in the later period, thereby affecting PTA consumption.

PTA may rebound in the near future, but the middle line will be pferred to the middle space.

Looking at the current market, the strong rise of the PTA price comes from the cost increase and demand pull, and at the same time there is a large speculative factor.

Although the market liquidity will continue, the normalization of monetary policy will become inevitable, and the trend of the commodity market will become more complicated.

Admittedly, the basic performance of PTA is still good in the near future. As the downstream reaches the invoice and replenishment market at the end of the month, plus the contract price will soon be closed, the possibility of a slight rebound will not be ruled out for the short term. However, in the midline, the central bank raised the deposit reserve rate for the two time in 9 days, indicating that a number of combinatorial boxing market will be introduced in succession, and with the time going into late November, terminal consumption will soon be in the off-season. Under the background of the pressure on the macro level, the PTA price is expected to turn into the blank space.

Judging from the characteristics of the industry, there will be a big adjustment in December, and the spot trading of traders will be the main promoter.