The Price Adjustment Has Not Yet Ended, And Cotton Futures Prices Have Fallen Sharply.

　　 After constantly refreshing the historical high point, domestic cotton futures prices finally fell sharply in the last two weeks. Analysts said that the current cotton price adjustment is not over yet, but cotton prices will remain high in the long run.

Since the beginning of this year, cotton prices have risen sharply due to the shortage of domestic cotton. Especially in the past two months, cotton prices have been rising fiercely.

At the beginning of September, the main contract price of cotton futures in the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "Zheng Shang") was about 18000 yuan / ton, and by November 10th, its price had risen to a record high of 33720 yuan / ton, and the price rose more than 15000 yuan per ton in just a month or more, or more than 80%.

However, after a record high of 10 November, cotton prices fell sharply. As of yesterday, the main contract price of the 1105 cotton futures contract was 25220 yuan / ton, which has dropped by 8500 yuan / ton compared with the high point in November 10th, or about 25%.

Analysts believe that a major factor in the collapse of cotton prices is the country's policy regulation. Due to the high domestic prices, recently, the state has frequently controlled prices, including the central bank's raising the deposit reserve ratio. The State Council 16 measures were introduced to stabilize the general level of consumer prices. The CBRC issued the urgent notice on increasing the support for the production, processing and circulating credit funds of agricultural products (19.60, -0.37, -1.85%). This series of policies has created a greater pressure on the overall commodity market, and cotton prices have taken the lead in this round of decline.

Shao Jia, an analyst with Ji'nan Business Department of Galaxy futures, said that according to the current macro situation, cotton prices will continue to oscillate lower. However, due to the support of fundamentals, the underlying space will be relatively limited. Textile enterprises with financial strength can buy at low prices and arrange raw material purchase reasonably. Ordinary investors should avoid such broad shocks, and the risks are large.

Shao Jia believes that from the perspective of long-term supply and demand, next spring festival, Spin Enterprises may still face the situation of being out of green. Due to the reduction of domestic cotton production in successive years, the demand of textile enterprises increases at an annual rate of 10%. At present, China's cotton industry has formed the characteristics of rapid demand development, greater demand than domestic output, and demand gap is basically normal.

"In 2009, domestic cotton supply and demand gap was 3 million 600 thousand tons, which is 2 million 600 thousand tons more than in 2008." Shao Jia said, "conservative calculation, cotton demand this year increased by 10% compared with last year, the supply and demand gap increased at least 1 million tons. Throughout the year 2010/2011, cotton supply and demand are still in a tight state. The current state reserve There are no more than 300 thousand tonnes of reserve cotton available for sale.

　 Shanghai mid-term analyst sees thunder also thinks, in the short term, cotton futures prices are still dominated by concussion, and there may be a retaliatory rebound. In the long run, the tight supply and demand situation of cotton will not change in 2010/2011. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises will still face the embarrassment of less quality resources.