Zhang Yaqin: The Three Major Battle In The Cloud Computing Era

In December 2010, the ninth annual meeting of Chinese enterprise leaders was held in Beijing. The theme of this annual meeting is "new business, new consensus and new impetus". Sina Finance and television live broadcast of this conference, Microsoft Corp global senior vice president Zhang Ya Qin 。

Zhang Yaqin: Good afternoon, everyone. I went to Taiwan with Tian Tian Ning to meet everyone. Everyone is talking about clouds. Not only is Taiwan hot, but the United States is also hot, from Hualian magistrate to Ma Ying-Jeou, from engineer to Terry Gou. cloud computing In every city in the country, we talk about cloud computing. Some people call cloud computing called halo calculation, fog calculation, cloud computing now has two kinds of claims. One thinks that cloud computing is nothing new. It has been the natural development stage of technology or product for many years.

Another view is that cloud computing is a brand new thing. New business models and new technologies will completely destroy and change the past world. Tian Suning is a good friend of mine. The second point of view is that he is an outstanding representative. I often say that Tian Suning is the indignant of our IT community.

I think this may often be a dispute between the two, the cloud computing itself will have a greater impact on the industry, he will also use to build on the current value above, today I will talk about the topic of cloud + end world.

In fact, cloud computing has been done for many years, mainly in the laboratory, and in this processing section, the real mainstream is probably from last year. We do IT just now to see Wang Wenjing, we do IT is playing four parameters, one is computing, one is storage, one is communication or bandwidth, the other is more important is the recent energy consumption, look at the development of the five years has been very strange according to Moore's law forward, ten years ago, Moore's law failed, and now is still doing IT computing development, now the computing power has reached Exa level, every 12 months, every year the entire IP traffic is Dabe, part of which is video traffic, and the storage has reached ten 21 times. 50 years ago, it was once imagined that a person named Nenxs could record people's experience. Now it is already very easy. Now it can be recorded that the whole history of mankind and everyone's history are recorded to 2 or 3 times.

The last one is energy consumption. We see two or three sets of curves. The whole energy consumption is definitely increasing. The data center has more and more terminal devices. But the good news is that the energy consumption of the unit is decreasing. Whether it is data center, server or PC or cell phone, this is called PUE. This is a great change in technology, which may not be further discussed. It is very important that a new industry, the rise of a wireless Internet, combines the advantages of Internet Unicom, combines the advantages of PC computing, and combines the advantages of wireless communication and mobile.

Another thing I am particularly excited about is a new user interface, the rise of a natural user interface. Our users of computer science regard this user interface as Goldbach's conjecture. Every era is a user interface, from the initial TEXT interface to the graphical user interface later to the natural user interface like voice to the present. Natural user interface is difficult to talk about, but it is very convenient to use it. We say the highest state is no user interface. Your actions and expressions, the way you interact with each other is the way you interact with computers.

You may have used two devices recently, one is the new user interface, one is the iPhone multi touch, the other is Wii playing the game into heaven. What I mentioned below is even more cool in the user interface than the two. It is a way of expressing without any need of access, entirely by expression, voice, action and vision. The natural user interface, called the somatosensory user interface, has now become a product.

You can see that this is not just playing games, it has completely changed our way of communication, entertainment and work life. We have a game product called Kmxc, which has been sold on a daily basis. It sells 100 thousand per day, the best seller ever sold, two times better than iPad, and users have fully endorsed this product.

Why do I need to say this? This is a very good application of cloud computing. Whether it's a game watching program, a lot of communication happens in the cloud and terminal. This has completely changed the pattern of our industry. The first trend is to really enter the Internet age from the PC era. Entering the Internet era does not mean that PC will disappear. Ten years ago, people told me that PC did not exist. Now I think PC has increased by 4 times in the past ten years and 10 times in China. Lenovo still exists and grows stronger. But the PC definition and its functions have completely changed. PC is not just your desktop. It is also your cell phone, phone, car, TV, wallet. There are all places where electricity is available. There are intelligence in computing places. There are intelligent places where there are networking, not people and people, people and things, things and things, Internet and Internet of things, and any chip is an intelligent device.

The third point is from the early stage to the later stage, and now to the cloud + terminal nature. I think the terminal will still exist and the terminals will become more and more diversified. We can see that the trend of the past and the trend of the future are more and more, not a device. I have mobile phones, e-books, iPad, netbooks, there are more and more devices, and more elements are balanced. In addition, business mode is changing. From software and products to product + service, especially cloud services, there will be more business opportunities. {page_break}

In the meantime, Wang Ran and I talked for a long time last time. What major changes are there? It's very important that I think it's a competition on the big platform. three famous battles before foundation of People's Republic of China The competition and competition of the three platforms. The first is that in the next five years and ten years, which enterprises will have the right to speak on the cloud platform, this will not be many. The world may add up to ten, probably not more than 20 or even less. The second big competition has already started, it is in the mobile terminal platform, now there may be 6 or 7 more. The battle has just begun, and the winner is not very clear. There may not be too many sides here. It may be two or three completely open and half closed. Another more intense battle is the competition between PC and mobile two. If you look at PC, it can be used on mobile phones and iPad, and mobile platforms can be used on PC. In the next ten years, who will become winners? Who has mastered these three platforms, who has the voice of the next generation of IT industry?

What exactly is cloud computing? Just now, Tian Ning gave many examples. Water, electricity and banks are all very vivid and special. I make a conclusion in a relatively micro way. Looking at the cloud computing, there are actually three levels, one level is the most basic to provide physical facilities, including storage, computing, data and bandwidth, which is a large data center. The second level is platform, software platform, development platform, we call API platform, this can be said that I think the most critical future or cloud computing is different from other places. Who owns the API of this platform, who has the tools and development environment on the platform. The third level is software as a service and data service. So this is a very simple representation of cloud computing. When we talk about this platform, now we look at PC and Windows. Microsoft has a platform called Azure blue sky. We hope that it is on the Internet, in the cloud operating system, in the cloud Windows, there is a complex degree and the ecological environment is completely different. I listed below some companies, many companies are doing cloud computing, many people are concerned about the way is different.

There are many kinds of cloud. Most of you talk about public clouds, such as water, electricity and information. Another kind of cloud is internal cloud, private cloud and public cloud. These clouds will coexist, and there will be a relatively independent market in a long time. And I personally think that the next four to five years in China may just start. This market is a private cloud. It is a virtual and private cloud. It is within the enterprise, and then there will be more public clouds in four or five years.

What's the advantage of this cloud? Tian Tian Ning just talked about these big changes. Specifically speaking, first of all, it reduces costs for internal businesses. Because of virtualization, it makes your server and your IT architecture more effective and cost less. For small and medium-sized enterprises, your IT may not need to have its own service, and does not need its own physical equipment to use other people's cloud as a way of renting, like water and electricity, when it is used, and when it is not used, it does not need to pay. This will be of great benefit to small and medium-sized enterprises and users.

At the other level, I understand that the cloud is actually a big difference in the mode structure of the industry. The mainframe is a vertical and vertical industrial chain, from chips to computers, to services, including languages, all of which are vertical by several companies. In the era of PC, all of them are horizontal, and more and more chips are professionally horizontal. In the era of cloud, industry is becoming more and more fractionize and more and more matrixing. Just like chip industry, now the semiconductor industry does not need to design and manufacture the product itself. The industry is completely separated.

It is very important to build a large data center. Now look at the large data centers have hundreds of thousands of servers, operating costs are not just hardware, more and more electricity, so the operation from CAPEX to OPEX. Microsoft now has ten large data centers worldwide, and we spent almost US $10 billion in the past to build this data center, the largest data center in the world. The most important thing about cloud is application. There are different kinds of cloud. I think the biggest opportunity is in the mobile cloud. Recently, MorganStanley has an analysis in the mobile cloud. He divides the cloud into several times. From the era of Desktop, we move into the mobile era. There are more opportunities in this era.

This is a project our research institute has done in the R & D department. The company has more than 3000 people engaged in R & D in China. Most of them are doing cloud. Microsoft will put 90% R & D on cloud over the next three years, and 50 thousand people will be engaged in cloud computing. Look at this video again.

The cloud computing just mentioned by Tian Ning Ning has a great impact on the current enterprises. If an enterprise does not adopt the cloud structure and does not adopt the new business mode, it will be very difficult for the future to survive. This is our technical and cloud computing aspects for the future. 90% is already a product.