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Zheng Cotton In The Latter Stage Will Probably Maintain The Upward Trend Of Shock.

2010/12/7 14:07:00 51

By ICE cotton continuous limit drive,

Zheng cotton futures

There have been six consecutive days of rise, with a cumulative increase of more than 10%.

With the implementation of national policy regulation and control, the impact of policy will gradually weaken, and the market will return to basic expectations.

At the same time, the spot market has stabilized and picked up and the funds in the futures market have gradually returned.

Policy regulation weakened, and market returns to basic expectations.

Since November 17th, the State Council has held executive meetings to stabilize prices.

Maintain

Since the policy and measures of market order, cotton has become the focus of policy regulation, so the roller coaster market has been sharply changed from plunging to plunging. The price has dropped from 33600 to 24180, with a total decline of 28%.

In the spot market, cotton purchase price also dropped from the highest 7.5 yuan / jin to less than 5 yuan / Jin, or more than 30%.

The sharp rise and fall of cotton prices led to a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Cotton farmers were reluctant to sell and cotton textile enterprises had no quotations. The market once stalled, resulting in the stalemate of the whole industrial chain.

After more than half a month's adjustment, the NDRC announced in December 5th that the cotton market has achieved initial success. The cotton price has dropped by 15.2% over the month, and the initial speculation has been curbed and the circulation order has improved.

From the current market situation, policy regulation has reached the expected goal. If there is no new policy before the end of the year, the policy impact will be gradually eliminated and the market will return to basic expectations.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released a forecast report last week, reducing the world's cotton production from 36 tons to 24980 tons this year, reducing the global cotton consumption by 360 thousand tons to 24 million 630 thousand tons, and the futures stock is 9 million 250 thousand tons, reducing 20 thousand tons.

Domestic, according to the national cotton market detection system survey, this year's total cotton output is expected to be 6 million 360 thousand tons, a decrease of 5.5% compared with the same period, while the civilian forecast this year's output is concentrated between 550-570 tons, compared with the demand of nearly ten million tons, the gap is about 4 million tons.

From the point of view of imports, by the end of November, the US cotton picking rate has exceeded 91%, and exports have been completed by more than 85%, and India, the second largest cotton producing country in the world, is still uncertain because of the pressure of domestic textile industry.

All these factors show that the imbalance of cotton basic demand in China can not be changed in the short term.

Spot market warmer and stronger willingness to sell

Recently, China's cotton price index began to pick up and increase.

In December 6th, the 328 level cotton price index was 26500 yuan / ton, up 149 yuan / ton; the 429 level was 25871 yuan / ton, up 117 yuan / ton; the reference price of Xinjiang cotton was generally raised 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

The national cotton electronic trading market is also gradually warming. In December 3rd, the main contract MA1103 rose 543 yuan, closing at 26520 yuan / ton, and the order quantity increased by 640 tons.

The stabilization and recovery of the spot market prices has made the buyers and sellers rational, and the willingness to sell has increased.

According to the international cotton net news, the stalemate in Xinjiang's cotton market began to break and volume increased.

According to cotton prices, the 3 grade lint is still losing money, but other grades of lint have a small profit margin, and buyers are more recognised for the current price.

futures market

Return of funds to Zheng cotton to regrow popularity

Since the adjustment of policies, Zheng cotton has greatly reduced its holdings and a large number of funds have been withdrawn.

With the weakening of the policy influence, the confidence of the main investors has rebounded and the funds have shown signs of reflux.

In December 3rd, Zheng cotton's main contract 1109 increased 10706 positions, of which the main force was a multi fund increase of 15382 hands, the volume increased by more than 200 thousand hands; in December 6th, the main force of zhengmian increased 24770 positions, the total holding 243704 hands, the main force continued to add more than 11826 hands, the total turnover reached 1 million 860 thousand hands on that day.

From the positions and pactions, the main funds showed signs of return, and the market bullish forces began to increase. Therefore, it is expected that in the late period, Zheng cotton will still maintain the upward trend of shocks.