Import Growth Rate Is About 30.5~34.5% In November.

Affected by seasonal factors and the recovery of peripheral economies, import and export growth or rebounded slightly in November.

The 10 institutions surveyed were on November.

Imported

The median of data prediction is 26.35, higher than that released by the National Bureau of statistics in October (25.3).

Among them, construction bank is the most optimistic, giving 32.2 value.

These 10 institutions include Goldman Sachs Gao Hua, Societe Generale Securities, construction, China Merchants Bank and many other well-known institutions.

Lu Zheng commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, believes that the working day is higher than last month. In November, the import growth rate was about 30.5~34.5%, with a median value of 32.5%, up 7.2 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of export data, the median forecast of 10 agencies was 23.1, slightly higher than the October data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (22.9).

Song Yu, Goldman Sachs economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that new exports in PMI

Order

The index and Goldman Sachs Global leading indicator (GLI) indicators have improved in recent months, indicating a better external demand.

At the same time, the renminbi

Trade

The depreciation of the weighted exchange rate for four consecutive months has also brought additional impetus to export growth.

Liu Qiyuan, senior analyst at Qilu Securities, estimated that the export situation may continue to improve with the recovery of the peripheral economy. Next year's exports may be stronger in the second half of the year, but the growth rate will be significantly lower than this year.

Appendix: the list of institutions participating in the investigation is not equal to one another.

    
        
            
            

            
            
            

mechanism

            
            
            

Import and export data for November

            

(year-on-year growth)

%)

            
        
        
            
            

Song Yu (Economist)

            

Qiao Hong (Economist)

            
            
            

Goldman Gao Hua

            
            
            

Import: 26%

            

Exports: 27%

            
        
        
            
            

Dong Xianan (chief macroeconomic Analyst)

            
            
            

industrial securities

            
            
            

Import: 20.2%

            

Exports: 19.6%

            
        
        
            
            

Xu Biao (Macro Strategy Analyst)

            

Ma Qiang (Macro Strategy Analyst)

            
            
            

China Merchants Bank

            
            
            

Import: 26.7%

            

Exports: 27.6%

            
        
        
            
            

Lu commissar (Senior Economist)

            

Xiao Li (Macroeconomics researcher)

            
            
            

Industrial Bank

            
            
            

Import: 32.5%

            

Exports: 28.1%

            
        
        
            
            

Wang Tao (Economist)

            

Xu Gao (Economist)

            

Hu Zhipeng (assistant economist)

            
            
            

UBS Securities

            
            
            

Import: 20%

            

Exports: 18%

            
        
        
            
            

Chen Xingdong (Chief Economist)

            
            
            

Asia Securities, Paris, France

            
            
            

Imported:

26.9%

            

Exports: 24.1%

            
        
        
            
            

Zhao Qingming (Senior Research Fellow)

            
            
            

Construction Bank Research Division

            
            
            

Imported:

32.2%

            

Exports: 23.2%

            
        
        
            
            

Liu Qiyuan (Senior Macro Strategy Analyst)

            
            
            

Qilu Securities

            
            
            

Import: 24.5%

            

Exports: 23%

            
        
        
            
            

Huang Lin (deputy director of Soochow Securities Institute)

            

Wang Ping (macroeconomic Analyst)

            

Qiang Chai Jing (macroeconomic Analyst)

            
            
            

Soochow Securities

            
            
            

Import: 28.2%

            

Exports: 20.1%

            
        
        
            
            

Median forecast data for 10 agencies:

            
            
            

Imported:

26.35%

            

Exports: 23.1%