The Middle Of Shanghai: Zheng Cotton Rebounded Or Was In Place &Nbsp; Instead, It Moved Downward.
Zheng cotton futures
The price fell on the 8 day, suggesting that the early rebound may have ended.
The main contract 1109 today closed at 26350 yuan per ton, down 650 yuan from yesterday's settlement price, or 2.41%.
The main contract closed 1 million 510 thousand hands, reducing 200 thousand hands, holding 240 thousand hands, an increase of 8000 hands.
Tomorrow, Zheng cotton or will continue to fall, and has again tested the possibility of 24000 yuan.
The main factors that affect cotton futures prices have shifted from supply and demand to technology.
According to wave theory, since the end of November 10th cotton futures prices rose to a downward trend, the main 1109 contract fell to 24180 yuan per ton in November 29th, the first wave of decline, usually known as A wave, and from November 29th to December 6th, it continued to rebound to the highest level of 27685 yuan.
Rebound range
Just 1/3, this is a wave of rebound, that is, B wave.
Generally speaking, there is another wave of decline after the B wave, that is, the C wave.
The target will reach a low level of 24180 yuan, and there is a possibility of further breakdown.
In terms of fundamentals, the long-term supply and demand of cotton is tight.
Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts at present less than 100, compared with the same period in the previous year in about 1000, which also shows that the spot market high-grade cotton is indeed more scarce.
From now until next year, cotton prices will remain at a higher level, with a range of shocks ranging from 23000 yuan to 29000.
It is also for this reason that Zheng cotton's fall process will be more difficult, and the frequency and magnitude of the oscillation may exceed expectations.
Since the current rally, the US cotton March contract has risen to 135.34 cents from a minimum of 111.13 cents per pound, up 21%, while Zheng cotton's September contract rose from 24180 yuan per ton to today's highest 27420 yuan, or 13%.
In this way, the United States cotton will continue to uplink Zheng cotton in the near future.
However, if the US cotton has also seen a significant decline in the near future, it will further promote the downward trend of Zheng cotton.
Spot market,
Cotton price
Relatively stable, the price of grade 3 cotton is between 26500 yuan and 27000 yuan.
Of course, after a sharp rise and fall, the probability of Zheng cotton's price exceeding the previous 30 thousand yuan is very small.
According to the cotton planting intention survey conducted by the China Cotton Association to the mainland farmers in 2011, the cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin is expected to increase by 11.7%. The enthusiasm of cotton growers in the the Yellow River river basin is not high, and it is expected to increase by 4.9%. According to the international situation, the increase in the planting area of the United States cotton also needs to be compared with other agricultural crops. The current growth rate seems to be around 12%. In India, the cotton yield per unit area has increased year by year and the potential for increasing production has been great. However, the policy of restricting export has not loosened, and the role of China's textile industry in alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand is relatively limited.
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