The Central Economic Work Conference Will Lay A Steady Growth And Prevent Inflation.

　　 Central Friday economic work The conference is about to take place. In the face of China's complex economic environment, how to control the high CPI and the specific operation of the monetary policy that has just been set for "prudent" is a matter of concern.

It is reported that the annual central economic work conference will generally do 9 aspects of the second years of economic work to do the keynote level expression. Yesterday, according to sources, this year's central economic work conference has completed the key preparation, and the relevant meeting documents have been submitted to the top leadership for revision. There is also news that in this meeting, it is possible to brew up the adjustment target of the consumer price index (CPI) in 2011 to 4%, the goal of "eight" for economic growth, and to continue to implement a robust monetary policy and a positive fiscal policy.

Yesterday, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the economic blue book in 2011 (hereinafter referred to as the blue book). The blue book also predicts that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate will reach 10% next year. CPI It will rise by 3.3%.

Core issues

China's economy will remain high and stable next year increase

The annual central economic work conference, which will be held in December 10th, will discuss the specific economic targets of 2011 and adjust and set the tone for the opening year of the 12th Five-Year plan.

"Steady growth and inflation prevention" is expected to become the core theme of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In December 3rd, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting that in 2011, we will accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development as the main line, implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, enhance the pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation and control, and speed up structural adjustment.

According to media reports, a recent expert revealed that the growth target of 12th Five-Year is expected to be lowered, mainly because the potential growth rate of the whole economy will decrease and the price control target will rise. At the same time, in order to adapt to the implementation of the steady monetary policy next year, the new credit volume and the growth rate of broad currency issuance will be reduced.

However, in the eyes of some authoritative institutions, China's economy will continue to maintain a certain growth rate. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' economic Blue Book 2011 pointed out that from the quarterly economic performance, China's economic operation will show a "high before and after low" situation in 2010, and the annual GDP growth rate is expected to reach a high level of 9.9%. In 2011, China's economy will remain at a high, stable and relatively fast growth rate, which is basically the same as the growth rate in 2010. The GDP growth rate is expected to reach about 10%.

Experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also believe that the future economic growth needs to be well controlled. The blue book points out that if GDP is not well controlled, the growth rate of GDP will exceed 10% this year. Overheating symptoms may cause great pressure on economic growth next year and increase the difficulty of macroeconomic regulation and control.

How to control inflation next year has become a topic that this central economic work conference can not get around. Chen Jiagui, chairman of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also reminded the reporters yesterday that the inflationary pressure is increasing. The blue book predicts that CPI will rise by 3.2% in 2010 and roughly 3.3% in 2011. On the 13 th of this month, the National Bureau of statistics will publish economic data such as CPI in November, and many market participants expect to see a high CPI in November.

The blue book points out that the pressure of inflation in China is increasing. This year, CPI is rising by quarter. It is expected that CPI will rise by 3.2% over the whole year. PPI is not high, but there is also an upward pressure. Moreover, the problem of excess liquidity has not been solved. Only this year's new loans may exceed the expected target of 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan. Over the next few years, excess liquidity has always been a major factor contributing to inflationary pressures.

"In the past two years, in order to deal with the impact of the international financial crisis in a timely and effective manner and adopt moderately loose monetary policy, some places have also gone through moderately moderate easing in the implementation process, resulting in a relatively large supply of money and liquidity." Wang Tongsan, director of the Institute of quantitative economics and technology economy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview yesterday that he predicted that the price rise level in 2011 would be higher than this year.

Policy trend

Monetary policy is only moderately tightened on the basis of "loose".

The Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee held in December 3rd has basically set the keynote for next year's economic work, namely, "to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and to enhance the pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation and control."

The adjustment of monetary policy from "moderately loose" to "stable" is a major change in the keynote of China's monetary policy. However, what measures will be adopted, which is worth looking forward to.

Xia Bin, director of the central bank's monetary policy committee and director of the Finance Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, said in an interview with some media that "monetary policy will tend to be neutral next year." In his view, the specific use of "moderate" or "tight" is just a matter of expression, the central bank has begun to tighten up, next year estimated that the money supply growth in the 15%-16%.

Chen Jiagui, director of the finance and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress and director of the Department of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that because the actual implementation in 2009 was not a moderately loose policy, but rather an overly loose monetary policy, the huge amount of loans needed in the year would take a long time to digest and there was limited room for future monetary policy adjustment. He also told reporters that this year's fourth quarter and even next year can only be adjusted under such a relaxed premise. Therefore, the general trend is to tighten moderately on the basis of overly loose and relaxed this year.

However, analysts say that monetary policy is unlikely to shrink significantly in 2011, especially the possibility of raising interest rates many times. The M2 target growth rate in 2011 is expected to be around 16%, which is similar to the average level before the financial crisis.

Positive fiscal policy focuses on stimulating domestic demand and expanding household income.

Chen Jiagui said, "we need to continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and have the basic conditions for continuing to implement the proactive fiscal policy."

In his view, China is in the period of social transformation. It is urgent to alleviate the gap between regions, the gap between urban and rural areas, and the gap between the rich and the poor. The government is the main force to narrow these gaps. Moreover, China's fiscal revenue has increased substantially this year, and the deficit accounts for less than 3% of GDP. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy.

Jia Kang, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of finance, believes that next year, when the government's public investment is expanding, we should carefully grasp the structural optimization and the quality of investment. At the same time, we should also introduce more measures to expand social investment, stimulate private capital to follow up, and support more SMEs through policies such as taxation, fiscal discount, government procurement, credit guarantee and so on.

Gao Peiyong, director of the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stressed in yesterday's interview that "whether increasing expenditure or implementing structural tax cuts, the active fiscal policy should focus more on stimulating domestic demand and expanding disposable income of residents while paying more attention to the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of development mode."

He believes that in terms of expenditure structure, more attention should be paid to expanding consumption expenditure next year, so as to further stimulate consumption and stimulate domestic demand.

　 Chen Jiagui believes that the structure of fiscal expenditure should be adjusted, and more money should be used to support the "three rural issues", for the construction of social undertakings of science and technology, education, health, culture, and so on, so as to improve the construction of social security system and improve the use effect of financial funds.