December 6~10 Day Cotton Market Weekly: The International Cotton Market Strong Rise, The Domestic Market Rose Slightly.

This week,

Spot prices rose slightly, and cotton prices continued to rise in the international market.

Prices continue to fall.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of December 10th, the whole country

Picking progress 96.4%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, seed cotton sale rate (accounted for the proportion of picking) was 83%, down 6.4 percentage points over the same period.

Most cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the enthusiasm of cotton buyers has increased.

Spot trading volume slightly enlarged, prices rose slightly.

In December 10th, the average purchase price of the 3 grade seed cotton in the mainland was 11.02 yuan / kg (the cost of folding cotton lint was 23798 yuan / ton), which rose 0.22 yuan / kg compared with last week, and the average price of Xinjiang purchase was 10.4 yuan / kg (the cost of folding cotton lint was 22728 yuan / ton), up 0.54 yuan / kg compared with last week.

A country representing the average selling price of the standard grade lint in the mainland

The price B index is 27071 yuan / ton, up 557 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 2.1%; the average price of Xinjiang standard lint sale is 27102 yuan / ton, up 387 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price in January 2011 was 27860 yuan / ton, up 235 yuan / tonne compared with last week, and the average price of electronic matching January 2011 in the national cotton trading market was 27087 yuan / ton, down 114 yuan / ton compared with last week.

External financial environment

The impact has weakened and the market focus has shifted to fundamentals.

The export policy is still uncertain, resulting in continuous supply of spot goods, prompting optimism of the sales figures of the US cotton market and the continuing rise of international cotton prices.

In December 10th, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in March 2011 was 136.97 cents / pound, up 4.63 cents / pound, or 3.5%, compared with last week; the international cotton index (M), representing the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, was calculated at 1% tariff. The cost of import of the imported RMB was 28663 yuan / ton, up 1553 yuan / ton, or 5.7%; compared with last week, the import cost of the folded renminbi was 28953 yuan / ton, up by 1538 yuan / ton compared with last week.

In December 10th, 32 branches.

The price of combed yarn is 34700 yuan / ton, down 2100 yuan / ton last week.

The price quoted is 12920 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 3.4%.

Looking ahead, the bull market will continue in the international market.

In the United States,

Sales are booming, but the supply is tight. According to the latest weekly data from the US cotton exports, as of December 2nd, when Zhou Meiguo's land cotton export volume was 73 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 65% over the previous week, of which China's active procurement and contract volume accounted for 46.7%.

According to the US Department of agriculture's forecast of global cotton production and marketing in December 2010/11, the US cotton output decreased marginally.

In December 13th, the India government discussed whether to decide whether to increase the export ceiling of cotton. From the present point of view, the market is more inclined to India cotton and the international market will go further and further away.

In Pakistan, it is reported that the government may ban cotton yarn exports from next year, which also provides a reason for international cotton traders to hoard cotton.

On the whole, the basic pattern of the international cotton market is stable, and cotton prices will remain strong in the short run.

It is difficult to keep going strong.

In late December 10th, the central bank again raised the deposit reserve ratio to 18.5%, further tightening liquidity, coupled with strong market tightening expectations. The future of cotton products, including agricultural products, will continue to bear the pressure from the macro level.

From the cotton market fundamentals, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, textile enterprises purchase real estate cotton enthusiasm is still not high, as of the beginning of December

Inventory is about 35.1 days, an increase of 6.1% over the same period last year.

Yarn and cloth sales are slowing down, inventories are increasing and prices are still falling.

To sum up, the current cotton price has stabilized and the price of purchase and sale has picked up slightly, but there are many restrictive factors between the policy surface and the downstream industry chain. Cotton prices will be dominated by weak shocks.