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The External Market Is Strong &Nbsp; Zheng Cotton Follows The Rise.

2010/12/22 11:00:00 24

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Recently, the US cotton has seen a rare strong trend, and the price has also reached a record high in recent years.

Analysts pointed out that the shortage of supply is expected to push us cotton prices continue to refresh a record high, and the internal and external spreads also make Zheng cotton rise for reasons, it is expected that Zheng cotton will continue the trend of upward trend, short-term or will test the 30000 yuan pass.

The stronger foreign market stimulated Zheng cotton to rise.

Overnight, the US cotton market was blocked by a strong demand driven by strong demand. This stimulus was supported by Gao Zheng's early opening yesterday, and then the two sides fell into a fierce game. The main contract closed at 28995 yuan / ton, up 585 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, or 2.06%. The volume dropped to 1 million 267 thousand and 400 hands, and the position increased by 6106 to 245 thousand and 900.

From the news side, December 20th.

Imported cotton

The price of China's main port is generally rising. Besides the price stability of cotton and Brazil cotton, the price of other major varieties has increased by 2-4 cents.

After a continuous rise, the current level of SM cotton prices generally stands at 30 thousand, the price of internal and external prices are obviously upside down and the expiration of import quotas has greatly reduced demand, while the supply of foreign cotton (Port spot and forward shipment) is somewhat "unable to keep up", and the spot market shows "no price without market".

On Tuesday, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's cotton imports in November increased by 12% to 126125 tons over the same period last year, up 31% from imports in October.

However, in recent years, the trend of Zheng cotton is still far behind the external market.

Last week,

ICE

Cotton has repeatedly triggered the mechanism of limit trading. The price of the main contract in March has risen by 9.82%, closing at 150.12 cents / pound.

On Monday evening, ICE cotton continued to hit the daily limit, and the US cotton broke through its previous highs. At yesterday's Asian trading session, the US cotton March contract has risen to 159.12 cents per pound.

Statistics show that since the start of the rebound in November 26th, the US cotton 03 contract has risen by nearly 40%, while the price of domestic cotton has only increased by 14%, and the phenomenon of external strength and internal weakness is obvious.

Zheng cotton short or concussion high

Analysts pointed out that this year's domestic

Cotton gap

It is expected to support Zheng cotton's high concussion, and the US cotton rebound is ahead of schedule, and the national policy is temporarily in a vacuum period, which has led to the recent upward movement of Zheng cotton.

But the scope of domestic upward bound is bound to be limited. On the one hand, the pressure from the downstream cost is increasing. On the other hand, Zheng cotton continues to go up or will attract the attention of relevant state departments.

On the whole, Zheng cotton is expected to continue its upward trend.

Yide futures Sun Xi pointed out that according to the price of 20 days, the import cost of China's Cotton (intermediate) imports is 180.44 cents / pound, converted into domestic 1% tariff conversion is 30387 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price is 30732 yuan / ton, and the current cotton spot price in China (that is, electronic trading market) today closed in December (contract) 27645 yuan / ton.

Therefore, domestic and foreign cotton prices are facing a downward trend. As long as the government does not introduce strict macroeconomic control policies, Zheng cotton's rebound will still be expected.

"Domestic policy regulation has pressure on Zheng cotton price, and cotton continues to hit a new high, pushing Zheng cotton up.

Zheng cotton 1109 contracts stabilize 28000 above, short-term will test the 30000 gateway strong pressure, continues the shock upward trend.

Ruida futures Zhang Xiying said.

And Dongxing futures Zhang Junling also pointed out that "short term internal and external spreads make Zheng cotton rise fully justified."

But the price of cotton yarn has not rebounded yet, and yarn profits are close to breakeven point.

The current price is mainly driven by an imported inflation, and it is expected that cotton prices will be subject to a decent adjustment only if the price of Zheng cotton is higher than the imported cotton price.

However, while most analysts are optimistic, there are concerns.

Shao Tao, senior manager of Shi Fu financial commodity futures research group, said there were two gaps in the adjustment since November 10th. It is expected that Zheng cotton will continue to rise.

And in the middle of Shanghai, the thunder also pointed out that Zheng cotton may continue to attack in the short term, reaching 30 thousand yuan.

But in the long term, Zheng cotton may be less likely to re interpret the bull market, and the possibility of a range shock from 25000 yuan to 30000 yuan is greater.