Niu Wenxin: The Global Inflation Crisis Is Coming.
Last night, oil prices again rushed to $90 a barrel. More importantly, it is hard to turn back 90 dollars this time. If the price of oil is really rigid, the second global inflation crisis will become a reality. First time " Global inflation crisis "In the 70s of last century, the so-called" Middle East War "led to the so-called" shortage of oil supply ", which triggered a sharp rise in oil prices and led to the" global inflation crisis ". 10.
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Strictly speaking, the first global inflation crisis is not an inflation crisis, but rather a "inflation crisis". oil crisis "Because it is necessary to use the US dollar for the purchase of oil, and the soaring oil price makes the world's demand for the dollar increase correspondingly, which makes the US dollar passive. As Wang Jian, the Secretariat of the China macroeconomics society and economics economist, said: "the price rise caused by insufficient supply," Excessive currency "It is the result of price increase, not the cause of price rise. 10.
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This is a historical fact that we must clarify. Because the textbooks of the Neo liberalism school and the monetarist school generally regard the "tightening of money to curb inflation" in the late period of "oil crisis" as a classic case of monetarism. In fact, this is a serious distortion of the facts. 10.
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First, oil and grain are the most basic necessities of human life. Their rising prices will trigger the rise of all commodity prices in the whole society. This is a fact that must be clearly recognized. Therefore, the root cause of the general rise in prices at that time was the sharp rise in oil prices, and the suppression of price increases should also start with solving the root cause of "oil crisis". The fact is that the fall in prices in the late 70s of the last century was not the result of "raising interest rates" to 20%, but the inevitable result of the end of the Middle East war. 10.
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Second, ignoring the "cause and effect relationship" and unbridled monetary tightening, the result is the huge cost of "continuous stagflation" in the global economy. As a result, the real economy almost all moved to the developing countries in the East. 10.
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It is precisely because we understand such a harsh historical fact that we have only shouted to the Chinese government to curb inflation caused by imported inflation and the price increase caused by insufficient supply. We must not use monetary means. Otherwise, the huge economic cost will not cause unimaginable social unrest. Because the mistakes of economic policies will lead to large-scale bankruptcy of the real economy, unemployment and sharp reduction of income, which will give the hostile forces a chance to seize the opportunity. They will not blame China's economic policies for misleading western economic textbooks, instead, they will incite the masses, blame corruption on the policy mistakes, blame the government for incompetence, blame democracy and so on, and then destroy the Chinese economy. This is not the Arabian Nights, but the fact and lesson of the "Color Revolution" in Eastern Europe.
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Now, the central government's decision has corrected the mistakes of the past, and has basically gone in the right direction. However, at this time, we may have to face another disaster, the global inflation crisis. Note that today's situation is completely different from the 70s of last century, and today is "true global inflation". {page_break}
In April 14, 2009, for the first time, I put forward that "global deflation" will suddenly turn to "global inflation", and I hope that investors in the stock market will be concerned about this trend. There will be a big round of so-called inflation in the future. Since then, we have repeatedly expressed a view that commodity prices may rise rigidly in the future regardless of the depreciation or appreciation of the US dollar.
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Why do we make such a judgement? It is very simple that all countries in the world are issuing large amounts of money, which makes the appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar distorted. The currency strength between countries is difficult to express through exchange rate, but eventually it will be expressed through commodity prices. The expression is: commodity prices are rising rigidly. 10.
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This may have been said by us. Very simple, put the dollar index and the commodity index historical and realistic trend map together, the conclusion soon came out.
This is certainly not a good thing for China. Because China's monetary policy fails, and no matter how tight it is, it can not prevent price rises. Therefore, to cure the imminent "global inflation crisis", it is imperative that all countries in the world should work together to tighten money instead of individual countries. But on the contrary, the three major economies of the United States, Europe and Japan are all implementing "extremely loose" monetary policy. Countries such as Australia, Canada, India, Brazil and other countries that have already begun to tighten their currencies have recently stopped further tightening. 10.
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In fact, the fool knows that in the context of economic globalization, when the international reserve currency is extremely loose, the weak currency countries will shrink and who will "die". Because the influx of hot money will not only hedge against tightening policies, but also make the country's liquidity rampant. China had already tried it before October, and it did not work at all. 10.
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For Chinese stock market investors, is "global inflation" a good thing? This is all the right choice of Chinese government policy.
There are two situations: first, China must "restrain" such inflation without any need to tighten its currency. In this way, the stock market will fall immediately, and do not expect anything else in the real economy, because all demand will be reduced to zero. Second, the Chinese government adopts the way of "shouldered" to maintain the real economy and maintain employment and social stability by releasing the price transmission and raising the income of the residents.
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There is a "very bad" phenomenon in China, which deserves the attention of the management. This phenomenon is that the liquidity of the banking system is very tight, but the liquidity of the banking system is very loose. If this is the tactical means of "stocks entering the bank and retreat", that is no problem. But if the phenomenon of monetary tightening is wrongly tightened, and it is good to continue tightening, it is a big mistake. I hope it's not the latter. 10.
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