Liu Rui: The 12Th Five-Year Plan Proposal Is Unexpected.

In the fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee, the party recently adopted the twelfth year plan for the preparation of the five national economic and social development plan. Although this proposal is only a political document of the Party Central Committee, it is not the government's plan itself, but according to our country's Planning management The basic principles and framework of government planning are basically determined by the proposal. By next March, the NPC will be deliberated and passed by the government. "12th Five-Year plan" The final planning work is formally completed. It is estimated that the official planning text will be further improved in two aspects than the current proposal: the first is the planning of indicators and projects, which are very technical compilation work, and the second is the specific policy measures, which will be adjusted and supplemented in the next 5 months.

Reading the 12th Five-Year plan proposal text, there are several first. Beyond all expectations Place. Because the media did all kinds of speculation before the proposal was published, but with the official release of the proposal, it was found that the original prediction was wrong. Because there are different big and small conjectures, we can choose 5 of them.

First, the concept of inclusive growth is not mentioned in the recommendation. This speculation comes from the eve of the seventeen session of the Fifth Central Committee, and general secretary Hu Jintao's speech at the September 16th Asian Forum on human resources development mentioned that we must seek inclusive growth. The concept of inclusive growth was first derived not from the Asian Development Bank, but from the three growth proposed by the European Union ten years ago: inclusive growth, smart growth and green growth. The concept of development and growth is also keeping pace with the times. As far as the meaning of inclusive growth is concerned, there are two meanings: first, to emphasize differences in growth, to allow different regions, countries and ethnic groups to retain their own characteristics and characteristics in the process of seeking growth; secondly, to emphasize the care and assistance for vulnerable areas, countries and ethnic groups in the process of growth. The idea of the international community is actually a further elaboration of the concept and strategy of sustainable development. The use of this term by general secretary in international exchanges shows that our country supports the idea of the international community. However, the domestic media believe that this formulation will be a misreading. Although the word "inclusive growth" is not used, the concept of inclusive growth is embodied in the words of Scientific Outlook on Development, harmonious society, co-ordination and so on put forward by our country. Our country and the international community have reached a consensus on all kinds of advanced development concepts.

Secondly, there is no mention of GDP in the recommendations. This is the biggest misreading of the proposal by the media. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the concept of the total sum of the final products and services produced by a country or region in a certain period of time. It is a meaning that the total income that an enterprise or a family obtains in a certain period. Although there are many imperfections in GDP in Scientific Outlook on Development's view, there are no other concepts that can replace GDP to measure the total output of a country or region in a certain period from an economic point of view. Recently, at the G20 finance ministers meeting, China's share in IMF rose to third place, second only to the US and Japan, taking into account China's GDP factor and other two related factors. There are no quantitative indicators in the proposal. When it comes to economic growth, it uses qualitative sentences: the steady and fast economic development. At present, there are various words about the trend of China's economic growth in the next five years. However, considering that the "12th Five-Year plan" period is only the middle stage of the third step in the "three steps" of our modernization, there will be more than 20 years to go before we reach the goal of modernization in the middle of this century. Therefore, the growth rate of GDP should not be too low. The goal and task of doubling the ten years should still be upheld. In the next ten years, the average annual growth rate of GDP should not be less than 7.2% in the next five years. Therefore, the growth rate of GDP should be clearly stipulated in the five year plan published next year. Under the current system operation conditions, GDP is not the root of all evil, and the local government's pursuit of GDP growth is not wrong. The mistake is to regard GDP as the sole indicator of assessment.

Thirdly, there is no change in the recommendation from the external demand to the domestic demand. In the wake of the financial crisis, China's economy did not have a financial crisis at the same time, but it was affected by the export crisis. This is the inevitable result of China's development of an export-oriented economy in the past thirty years. Therefore, domestic and foreign public opinion widely appealed to China to change its export oriented development strategy, from external demand driven economic growth to domestic demand to drive economic growth. In response to the financial crisis, China has taken measures to expand domestic demand and achieved some results, such as home appliances, automobiles and rural areas. But in fact, the international market still needs strong demand for Chinese products. A large number of export-oriented enterprises in China will take a long time to turn to domestic demand production. Therefore, the transformation from external demand to domestic demand in a short span of five years is unrealistic and inconsistent with the interests of national development. The proposal only refers to accelerating the formation of a new situation in which consumption, investment and exports coordinate the growth of economic growth. This shows that the relationship between the external demand and domestic demand of the Central Committee is still prudent. Consumption and investment need to be strengthened as an internal factor, but export is also needed. The relationship between the three is to coordinate economic growth. The adjustment of foreign demand and the increase in domestic demand are in line with Scientific Outlook on Development's idea of coordinating and coordinating economic relations at home and abroad.

Fourthly, no doubling of national income is mentioned. China's economy has been growing rapidly for 30 years, and the country has indeed begun to become rich and powerful. However, due to the widening of the income gap between different regions, industries and people, the society has expected to change this situation in the next five years. It even thought that the "12th Five-Year plan" should be a plan for enriching the people, rather than a plan for the powerful nation. It also proposed that the national income should be doubled. This proposal has paid enough attention to the appeal of the society. It has devoted a special chapter to the protection and improvement of people's livelihood. It also put forward the qualitative requirement of the general increase in the income of urban and rural residents. It also referred to the quantitative requirements of maintaining two year-on-year growth (the growth of urban and rural residents' income is synchronized with economic growth, the growth of labor income keeps pace with the growth of labor productivity) and the two ratios (raising the proportion of income distribution to national income and increasing the proportion of labor remuneration to the primary distribution). But it is reasonable not to mention the idea of multiplying national income or using rich people to replace the powerful nation. In short, on the one hand, the state is still not very rich and powerful, and it is impossible to improve people's livelihood too much; on the other hand, the excessive increase in income level will delay China's economic growth. From an economic point of view, whether raising wages or raising living standards will eventually increase these improvements to the cost of economic growth. In the short term, in order to raise labor income, it can keep pace with the growth of labor productivity. But in the long run, the growth of labor productivity must be faster than the growth rate of labor income, so as to form the necessary accumulation for investment in economic construction. China's economy has just developed, the total economic volume will soon become the second in the world, but maintaining sustainable economic competitiveness is also very important. The income of the Chinese people has generally increased over the past thirty years. This is unquestionable fact that the problem is not to continue to accelerate this increase, or even exceed the speed of economic growth, but to solve the problem of widening the gap between the speed of income growth. Even rich should be the current theme.

Fifthly, political reform is not mentioned. Before the conference was held, the media made various conjectures on political reform according to the speeches of the central leaders. But after the proposal came out, the contents of political reform were not much. Two, it was far from certain expectations. In fact, there are still quite a few suggestions on the contents of political reform. But it is unrealistic to expect too much. Because the five year plan for national economic and social development is an outline plan for economic and social development, and political content is not the focus of outline planning. The content of political reform is expressed mainly through the political report of the party's National Congress held every five years. In the proposal of this plan, political reform continued to emphasize actively and steadily promoting the reform of the political system, and referred to the reform of the administrative system, social system and cultural system. All these indicate that the reform of political system has its own understanding and timetable in China.