Survey Of Cotton Output Forecast And Picking Sale In November 2010

Project commitment: cotton farmers cooperative association of China Cotton Association and Xinjiang Huatai cotton professional cooperative monitoring object: 13 cotton producing provinces (autonomous regions), 2641 cotton growers.

In November 2010, the cotton association of China Cotton Association and the Huatai Cotton Professional Cooperative in Xinjiang investigated the cotton output, picking and sale of 2641 cotton farmers in 310 counties (cities and regiments) of 12 provinces in the mainland and Xinjiang autonomous region.

In November, the light and temperature conditions of most cotton regions in the country were good, which was good for cotton picking and picking. After the middle and late days, cotton in most parts of the country had stopped growing. Because of the fine weather at the late growth stage, the growth of cotton has improved, and the output is expected to increase slightly in some areas than in October. According to the weighted average calculation of cotton farmers surveyed, the total output of the country is estimated to be 6 million 650 thousand tons, an increase of 20 thousand tons compared with the expected number in October, compared with 2.1% in the previous year. Cotton picking is more concentrated, picking up faster in the same month. By the end of the month, cotton picking in the the Yellow River River Basin and the northwest inland cotton area has basically been completed. Some cotton sown in the Yangtze River Valley has not been picked yet. The average picking rate in the whole country is 94.8%, slowing down by 3.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

Affected by the state's stable price policy and other factors, cotton prices fell at a high level in November, seed cotton purchase prices fell rapidly, cotton farmers' reluctant sale mentality increased, businesses were afraid to open acquisitions, and the sale was in a stalemate. The national average sale progress rate was 70.2%, slowing down 12.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the average selling price of cotton farmers was 10.93 yuan / kg, down 2.6% compared to the same period, up 51.9% from the same period last year.

The weather conditions in the the Yellow River River Basin in November were better, and the cotton harvest was basically over. The actual output was slightly higher than the previous production forecast, but the total output was still lower than that of last year. As of November 30th, the picking rate of the basin reached 98%, an increase of 13 percentage points, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared with that of last year. Cotton farmers in the the Yellow River River Valley have the habit of storing cotton, and the rate of sale is the slowest in the country, which is less than 40% by the end of October. The price of cotton is higher this year, and the enthusiasm of early cotton growers is higher than before. However, after the first half of November, cotton farmers were reluctant to sell their wait-and-see mentality as cotton purchasing prices fell. On the one hand, cotton quality is better than before, and good cotton can not sell well. Cotton farmers have a great psychological gap and expect prices to rebound again. On the other hand, the risk of Cotton Traders and cotton processing enterprises is increasing, and the seed cotton purchase market is basically at a standstill. At the end of the month, the sale of cotton growers has slowed down significantly compared with the same period last year. As of November 30th, the cotton farmers' sales progress was 45%. At the peak period of cotton purchase, the growth rate of cotton growers increased by only 10 percentage points, down 16 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The average selling price of cotton farmers in the basin in November was 11.05 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.45% compared to the same period, and the average price in most areas decreased by 1 yuan / kg in the second half of the month.

The cotton growing area in the Yangtze River Valley has been sowing late this year, the weather conditions are not ideal, and cotton has been affected in varying degrees. By mid November, there were still more cotton bolls on the cotton plant. In the late period, the weather improved and cotton concentrated in a large quantity, and the output was expected to increase slightly. The picking of cotton was basically over. However, some of the cotton and wheat after cotton were not picked because of the late blooms and varieties. As of November 30th, the picking rate of the basin was 87%, an increase of 28 percentage points, up 9 percentage points from the same period last year. Most of the cotton farmers in the basin were sold immediately, but cotton prices fell sharply in mid November, and no acquisition was made in the market. At the end of November, cotton prices gradually stabilized, cotton traders began to buy cotton, but cotton farmers were not satisfied with the price. They sold part of it and stored part of it. As of November 30th, the sales progress was 70%, an increase of 29 percentage points, down 17 percentage points from the same period last year. The average selling price of cotton farmers in the basin in November was 10.97 yuan / kg, down 0.54%, up 55% from the same period last year.

In November, the temperature of the northwest inland cotton area has gradually decreased. Most cotton has stopped growing after the beginning of the year. The cotton output has not changed compared with that of last month, and the picking of cotton seeds is basically over. Due to the fact that the flower pickers were returning home gradually, the cost of picking was greatly improved. As of November 30th, the harvest rate of Xinjiang was 96%, down 3.5 percentage points. Affected by weather factors, cotton maturity in Xinjiang is relatively late this year. Cotton farmers use ripener extensively, resulting in poor maturity and low cotton quality. In late November, four or five or even worse cotton was listed on a large scale. The price of Xinjiang was the highest in the early period of the year. The average price in the first half of November was 12.5 yuan / kg, and the latter grade was lower. In addition, the purchase price generally fell, the largest in the country, and most of the selling price in the second half of the month was only 9 yuan per kilogram. Affected by the drop in prices, some cotton farmers are reluctant to sell their spirits and sell their cotton. Especially the Corps, because the unified price is low, the sale progress is slower than the place. Although some cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, compared with the mainland, Xinjiang still has the fastest selling rate. By the end of November 30th, the sale rate of Xinjiang was 91%, down nearly 7 percentage points from the same period last year. The average selling price for the month was 10.83 yuan / kg, a decrease of 5.1% compared with the same month, up 47.6% over the same period.