Stock Selection And Timing In The New Investment Era

"Timing" and "

The two strategies of stock selection and timing are all currently under way.

In the practice of China, the development course of the securities market over the past 10 years is not yet able to provide us with a better judgement. What we can analyze is still limited to different stages of development, and which strategy may be more appropriate.

In the era of non tradable shares, because the pricing mechanism of non tradable shares and tradable shares is different, the non tradable shareholders controlling the value of their equity are measured by net assets. As a result, the business objectives tend to expand the scale of assets rather than considering the wealth and value of shareholders. During this period, the risk of stock selection is very large. But at the same time, because of the lack of anticipation and confidence in the long-term operation of enterprises, the price of tradable shares is divorced from the real value of enterprises, and the short-term market speculation is becoming more and more popular, coupled with frequent policy intervention, and the market volatility is very large, which provides great convenience for those who choose the market.

After the share reform, the pricing mechanism of non tradable shares and tradable shares is the same. It makes the interests of both sides consistent, and business returns to the business objectives of shareholders' wealth creation.

Against this background, the long-term development of enterprises has become the common pursuit of non tradable shareholders and tradable shareholders. The strategy of stock selection has a solid market base.

With the development and growth of institutional investors, stock price determination depends more on enterprise value. Although the market is still fluctuating, this fluctuation basically spreads around the enterprise value, and the space of timing strategy has been restrained to a certain extent.

After the stock market reform, there has been a long rally in the market. Although the stock market is increasing, more and more investors begin to adopt the strategy of stock selection.

In particular, private equity funds still active in the market, who have gone through the storm and baptism, have made a good investment return in the past few years.

From the investment performance of public funds, there are no obvious differences between the timing and stock selection strategies, but there are more fund managers recognizing the advantages of stock selection and adopting the trend of stock selection strategy.

The gradual popularity of stock picking strategy has both the factors of securities market pformation and the background of China's economic market pformation and rapid development.

The 10 years of gold reflects the good expectations of investors for China's economic future. I believe that in this process, a large number of enterprises will grow into giants in the industry and even in the world.

But holding a blue chip stock for a long time is really a lonely and unbearable supernormal thing. Otherwise, Buffett will not become a paragon of investment that everyone praises, which may be the biggest difficulty of stock picking strategy.