The Three Is To Burn The Hot Price And Temperature &Nbsp; And To Defend The Battle Of The Money Bag 2011.

Photo: the National Bureau of Statistics announced in December 11th that CPI broke its first five years in November, an increase of 5.1% over the previous year, reaching the highest level in the year.

"Garlic you ruthless" "beans you play" "sugar Gao Zong"...

The rise in prices has significantly increased the cost of living for the people.

Corresponding to "boom" is the constant regulation of the government, from the "fight against speculation" in May to the "put in reserve" in August, from the "Sixteen points" in November 20th to the "reserve rate increase". The multi sector "subsidy and price limit" joint control aims at reducing the burden of "vegetable basket" and "rice bag" to ensure the basic needs of the people's livelihood.

This is the mung bean sold in a vegetable market in Beijing (photo taken in July 21st).

The central bank recently released the fourth quarter 2010 Saver survey shows that residents' satisfaction with prices hit the lowest since the fourth quarter of 1999, 73.9% of residents believe that prices are "high and unacceptable".

"Money bag war" pressure is still not small.

The people's Bank of China suddenly raised interest rates at the end of last year.

Previously, most people believed that with the 6 overall increase in the deposit reserve ratio in 2010, the possibility of raising interest rates by the central bank in 2010 was very small.

"This may indicate that CPI could still linger on the high level in December last year, and the interest rate instrument will lag behind, so the late plus is not as good as the early increase."

Lu Zheng commissar, senior economist at Xingye Bank, said.

"Since inflation expectations are formed, prices will have some rising inertia. Coupled with the 1-2 month of 2011, which will be the traditional Spring Festival in China, holiday demand will drive the price of some products to rise. Coupled with the increase in the possibility of catastrophic weather such as low temperature, rain and snow since the winter, it will bring difficulties to the production and pportation of vegetables, fruits and other agricultural products. The pressure of rising prices in the first quarter of this year is still greater."

Lu Zhiming, a researcher at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said.

Wu Tujin, a macroeconomic analyst at Guoxin Securities, believes that a series of "combination punches" that control prices in recent years by central departments and local governments have achieved initial success, but this year's price rise is still not optimistic.

Prices will remain high and stable this year, and the price increase will probably be around 4% this year.

Data show that the marginal effect of pre price regulation measures is decreasing.

According to the Ministry of Commerce statistics, after 3 weeks of reduction, the market prices of edible agricultural products monitored by 36 major cities in the whole country in from December 13 to 19, 2010 have stabilized and slightly increased.

Among them, the price of sugar, aquatic products, grain and meat increased by more than 0.5%.

Micro-blog, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said that the inflation pressure in 2011 will be relatively large. Inflation pressure will be greater than the second half in the first half because of the tail factor. Inflation pressure will decline in the second half of the year due to the downward adjustment of base and summer food prices.

Judging from the current trend, if there are no major natural disasters, the high inflation point is expected to be concentrated in the first half of this year.

"Three fires" heat prices and temperatures

Experts believe that the "three fires" caused by excess liquidity, imported inflation pressure and rising labor prices are the main reasons leading to the continued "high temperature" of prices.

In response to the financial crisis, in 2009 and 2010, the M2 growth target of China's monetary policy has been raised to around 17%, and the actual growth is much higher than this expected goal.

Excess liquidity promotes speculative activity and asset bubble expansion. In 2010, speculation in hot money led to the capitalization of some agricultural products, causing sudden and unexpected rise in food prices, and directly promoting the warming of inflation expectations.

The continued negative interest rate has accelerated the emergence of the "cage tiger".

In the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank survey showed that 45.2% of urban residents tend to "invest more (such as bonds, stocks, funds, etc.)", and 37.6% tend to "save more". "More investment" has replaced "more savings" as the first choice for residents.

A Guoxin Securities report said that with the completion of capital construction projects and the payment of progress payments under the stimulus policy, the stock money funds had been pferred from the limited platform companies to a large number of commercial enterprises. In 2009, incremental funds were no longer reinforced by industries such as reinforced concrete and so on. Instead, according to the principle of maximizing profits, they preferred the most tight investment and supply side, the most easily increased prices after the capital entered, and the products and industries that formed stock investment returns.

This brought uncertainty to the price trend in 2011.

Second, the pressure of international commodity price pmission is increasing.

Lu said, the new situation we face is the unprecedented oversupply of synchronous liquidity in the world.

The pattern of weak recovery in the developed economies may continue. In the context of loose monetary policy in developed countries such as the US, Japan and other developed countries, the pattern of high volatility and upward trend of commodities will continue, and import inflation pressure will continue.

Third, the structure of labor supply has changed, the middle and low end wage growth has accelerated, and the price of labor has increased into the prices of goods and services.

"This will make it difficult for us to go back to the lower level of inflation in the next ten years."

Wu Tujin said.

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Clear the relationship between principal and subordinate and play a good combination.

Experts generally believe that policy makers have great determination in regulating prices and managing inflation expectations, making policy decisions more scientific and more systematic.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University of China, thinks that since 2010, prices have been rising rapidly. There are both traditional factors and new factors.

To control inflation, we must grasp the core contradiction, clarify the relationship between principal and subordinate, and make a good combination.

Experts believe that the ultimate problem of price control is liquidity recovery and currency normalization.

Wu Tujin believes that although monetary policy has moved towards normalization in 2010, M2 is still higher than the historical average, and the road to recover liquidity and control credit growth is still going on.

It is foreseeable that this means of raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio will continue to be used this year to stabilize inflation expectations through the "turn" of monetary policy.

Lu stressed that enhancing the resilience of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism will also help ease the pressure of imported inflation.

Since from December 21st to 28th last year, the RMB has risen to the middle price of the US dollar for 6 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative appreciation of 371 basis points.

A moderate appreciation of the renminbi will help ease the impact of rising commodity prices on domestic prices.

In addition, how to strengthen the supply of agriculture and improve the circulation link is a long-term task to control prices.

Liu Yuanchun believes that the pmission of international prices, long-term unreasonable price correction and rising factor cost will drive grain prices to continue to rise.

China is in the process of accelerating urbanization, which puts forward higher requirements for agriculture, and must strengthen the intensity of agricultural planning, supply and support.

Wu Tujin said that controlling prices should also firmly curb the excessive rise in housing prices.

Looking at the price increase in 2010, house prices are also an important promoter.

High housing prices will inevitably lead to an increase in the opportunity cost of life and production, and then to the prices of labor, services and products.