Textile Shoes And Clothing Enterprises Are Optimistic About Brand Retail.
2011 clothing
industry
The growth rate is more optimistic, and the cost pressure under the inflation situation is small, especially parity.
clothing
It has stronger resistance to inflation.
Textile and clothing are divided into two parts: processing and brand retail.
brand
With the growth of the retail sector, compared with the sub sectors of clothing, home textiles and footwear, we are most optimistic about the "clothing sub industry". Its logic is that the growth rate of the clothing sub industry in 2011 should be more optimistic, and the cost pressure faced by the inflation situation is small, especially the price clothing has stronger resistance to inflation.
Because of the obvious advantages in the competitive situation and the more mature business models, the performance of garment companies is more determined.
The manufacturing sector is facing high pressure due to high raw material prices and late performance.
Processing and manufacturing:
Prices of raw materials are running under pressure.
At present, the price of raw materials based on cotton has reached a new high in recent years due to the factors of capital speculation under loose monetary policy.
Whatever the trend of late stage, it has seriously affected the production plan, inventory management and profitability of enterprises. At the same time, the order may lead to insufficient orders in the later stage, and the plate boom will be faced with a turning point.
We judge that the export growth of industry will maintain about 10% in 2011, but the price of raw materials has already been separated from the fundamentals.
Especially in the first half of 2011, manufacturing enterprises may face another shuffle.
From the perspective of business and profitability, the adjustment has begun -
Production plan: previously, the price of downstream cotton textile products has achieved higher growth, but it has not been able to keep up with cotton price increase.
Most of the small and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises have not dare to offer, dare not to receive a single long list, production plan has been affected.
Inventory management: in 2009, the company maintained high inventory of raw materials and finished goods, but most enterprises do not have high inventory level at present.
It is estimated that the inventory of large cotton enterprises such as Lu Tai will be enough to support the first quarter of 2011.
Nearly 30 thousand yuan / ton cotton price level, it is difficult for enterprises to reduce exposure through inventory management.
Earnings: at present, cotton prices rise or fall, both of which have a negative impact on corporate earnings growth.
If cotton prices continue to rise, enterprises will have greater pressure to shift costs. If cotton prices fall, the prices of enterprises will drop in 2011 than in 2010, which will affect income and profit growth.
Brand retail:
The overall situation is that the ideal price of clothing is more than inflation.
The rapid growth of China's textile and apparel consumption constitutes the foundation of our long-term brand retail sector.
As far as 2011 is concerned, we expect that the growth of domestic textile and apparel consumption will still maintain the 25% level.
First, the logic of long term high growth cycle of brand clothing consumption has not changed. Industry consumption growth will still maintain 2-3 times the GDP growth rate.
Second, it is estimated that the Hong Kong stock and A share listed brand clothing companies will increase more than expected in spring / Summer 2011, with an average order growth of over 20%, and some companies reach 30% or even higher. This shows that the terminal franchisees are optimistic about the intuitive perception of the latter consumption and form the basis of annual revenue growth in 2011.
Third, Brand Company constantly excavate deep demand through new brand series and novel design, which have obvious pull on sales growth and price promotion.
We are optimistic about the growth of the brand retail sector, but compared with the sub sectors such as clothing, home textiles, shoes and so on, we are most optimistic about the "clothing sub industry". Its logic is that the growth of the clothing sub industry in 2011 is more optimistic, and the cost pressure faced by the inflation situation is small, especially the price clothing has stronger resistance to inflation.
First, the cost of raw materials, cotton prices soaring pressure on clothing far less than home textile products.
Cotton prices have risen by 80% since the beginning of 2010, and the theoretical calculation of the price of clothing and home textile terminals needs to be increased by 13% and 19%.
Since the price increase of clothing is smaller than that of home textiles, the demand for purchasing power of consumers is also lower than that of home textiles.
Secondly, compared with home textiles and footwear, the sales of clothing industry stores are higher than that of department stores, and retail channels are more sinks and the rental pressure is smaller.
Finally, the price of clothing in clothing is more than inflation.
Parity clothing is more essential and rigid.
And more importantly, the price clothing itself is precisely the lowest cost pressure in the industry, the lowest price range.
The price of clothing is more concentrated in the three or four line market, and the rental ratio and the upward pressure are obviously lower than those of other products.
At the same time, the growth of clothing companies is more certain.
Compared with home textile companies, the growth of garment companies is not affected by industry cycle factors.
The main driving factor of clothing consumption is the income level of residents.
At least 20% of the domestic textile industry's income comes from real estate related pulling, which has become an uncertain factor for the growth of home textile companies.
Compared with shoe companies, the advantages of garment companies in the industry competition pattern are more obvious.
Outdoor apparel and casual wear have not yet formed a stable competition pattern in the clothing sub industry. At present, 002029.SZ, 002269.SZ, and 300005.SZ are all the leading sub industries, and have strong competitive advantages in their respective industries. The competition of the formal clothing industry is stable, and YOUNGOR (600177.SH) and the wedding bird (002154.SZ) have the leading competitive advantages in the medium and high grade products respectively, respectively. 002269.
On the contrary, although the shoe industry is stable, BELLE's dominance leads to other companies being at a competitive disadvantage.
High quality clothing companies already have mature business models, and the ability to resist risks is more obvious.
Clothing sub industry has developed relatively early, and its brand, channel, supply chain and ordering experience are being studied by home textile companies.
After fierce competition, the garment companies that stand out at present have obvious advantages in a certain link.
For example, the channel expansion and management capabilities of the seven wolves, the collaboration ability of the overall supply chain of American state clothing, and the fine brand management of the wedding birds.
It is these mature business models that make the performance of garment companies in the financial crisis more obvious than those of home textiles and shoe companies.
Industry rating and investment strategy
Maintain brand retail sector "stronger than big city" rating, processing plate "neutral" rating.
We are optimistic about the high growth of the brand retail sector, among which the most optimistic clothing sub industry.
It is recommended that "seven brands of brands, mature channels", the seven wolves and the wedding birds, the "cheap clothes, the improvement over expectation" of American state dress and Hinur (002485, stock bar) (002485.SZ), and "performance explosion growth" in the search of 002503 (002503.SZ) and Pathfinder.
Processing and manufacturing sectors recommend "600527.SH with low export proportion and increased consumption of domestic sanitary products".
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