The "Restriction Order" Goes Downhill And Goes Up Against The &Nbsp; Where Does The New Year Regulation Go?
volume Go up, enterprise sales break 100 billion yuan, high housing prices... Interpretation of the recent 2010 "property" data of the property market can be found, although last year's property market regulation added "strict purchase" and other stringent means, it can be described as "the most stringent in history", but the real estate market is still in the opposite direction. In the new year, will the most stringent regulation be sustained and where will the property market control go? According to the insiders, we should strengthen institutional regulation and guarantee housing construction.
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Purchase restriction order
Difficult to resist
Property market uptrend
situation
In April 30th last year, Beijing promulgated the "ten national" implementation rules, and took the lead in stipulating that "every household can only buy a new commodity house".
After the promulgation of the "five countries" in September 29th, there were 16 tier cities in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Nanjing and Hangzhou.
At that time, the parties believed that administrative means directly stopped the purchase of some houses, which had injected a "coolant" for the overheated property market.
The statistical data that have been released since December last year showed the "stubborn" side of the market.
National Bureau of statistics data show that in 2010 1-11 months, the national commercial housing sales area of 825 million square meters, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year, an increase of 1-10 percentage points higher than 0.7 percentage points.
In the same period, the sales volume of national commercial housing was 4 trillion and 230 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5% over the same period.
Among them, the sales area and sales of single month in November increased by 14.5% and 18.6% respectively.
"The market was slightly depressed in October last year, and then it improved significantly.
At the end of the year, we have to queue up for the trading center.
Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate Minhang District shop salesman told reporters.
In terms of housing prices, in November 2010, the price of new houses in Guangzhou in the 16 restricted cities decreased by 0.1%, and the prices of 5 other cities were flat. The other 10 restricted cities were all rising.
In 2010, real estate companies enjoyed a new round of market Carnival in the "most stringent regulation".
Vanke Group's announcement on the evening of January 4th showed that sales and sales reached 689 thousand square meters and 8 billion 350 million yuan in the last month of last year, respectively, up 69.8% and 51.3% respectively over the same period last year.
Vanke achieved a record sales of 108 billion 160 million yuan last year, up 70.5% over the same period last year.
According to the data released by China real estate information group, the total sales volume of 30 major developers in 2010 reached 869 billion 100 million yuan, with an area of 84 million 490 thousand square meters.
According to this calculation, the average selling price of the developers reached 10286.42 yuan per square meter, up 23.98% over the same period.
Property buyers appear "regional shift" and "overall pursuit".
It is worth pointing out that under the pressure of "restriction order" and other measures, the "regional pfer" of the property market purchase demand is very obvious.
According to the China Index Research Institute, the proportion of commercial housing sales in the eastern region accounted for 49.3% in the 1-11 months of last year, representing a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared with the same period in 2009. The central region accounted for 24%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, while the western region accounted for 26.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points.
Chen Sheng, vice president of the China Index Research Institute, believes that under the action of "restriction" and other measures, part of the demand for the property market in the second tier cities in the eastern region is speeding up to pfer to other regions, which has certain effect on suppressing the speculative buying demand of hot cities.
However, "pfer" does not mean "disappear", and the overall action of the property market remains unchanged.
The macro-economic situation of various pressures intertwined deeply affects the trend of the property market.
Driven by inflation expectations, investment has become a rigid demand for some people.
In the fourth quarter of 2010, the central bank issued a survey report on savers, which shows that residents' willingness to invest exceeds their willingness to save for the first time. 45.2% of urban residents choose to invest, while real estate investment with a relative high value of 26.1% continues to be the first choice for residents to invest.
In addition, after repeated "ups and down" game, people who "eat" will rise to a certain degree of resistance to regulation.
Li Wenjie, director of the Central Plains real estate North China region, believes that under strict regulation, the overall price of the property market is still at a high level or rising except for the price of individual property.
Another reason why the property market is still high in the local "restricted purchase" is that many years of indemnificatory housing projects, although the pace of construction in recent two years has obviously accelerated, but in the short term, it is still unable to fully meet the housing demand of a large number of low-income people.
According to the Ministry of housing data, in 2010, 5 million 900 thousand sets of affordable housing and shanty towns were launched, and 3 million 700 thousand units were basically completed.
Chen Jie, executive director of the center for housing policy research at Fudan University, believes that the affordable housing that started last year will not be supplied until the end of this year to next year. In 2009, the completion of the affordable housing scheme in China is not ideal. This year, the supply of affordable housing is very difficult.
What is the most stringent regulation in the new year?
It should be noted that the most stringent regulation since last year is giving rise to many positive changes in the property market.
For example, Shanghai, known as the "property market vane", has completed the annual target of 12 million square meters in 2010, accounting for 60% of the total residential construction. In 2011, the construction and financing plan for affordable housing reached 15 million square meters, and the supply volume is expected to reach 11 million 500 thousand square meters.
The structural imbalance that has long plagued the property market is showing signs of improvement.
A few days ago, it was noted that the commercial housing restriction policy "effective period" to December 31, 2010 in Fuzhou, Xiamen and other cities decided to postpone the implementation of this policy.
The rest of the cities that implemented "restriction" also did not release the signal of "restriction on purchase".
Why continue to "buy"?
Chen Sheng said: "on the one hand, inflation expectations are increasing, investment speculative demand is likely to rebound again; on the other hand, the supply of housing in key cities is still insufficient. If we relax the restriction on the purchase of loans, it may lead to another rapid rise in house prices."
Judging from the cautious and optimistic judgement of the macro economy in 2011 and the tightening of monetary policy, the most stringent market regulation will continue in 2011.
Some people in the industry believe that the real estate industry should further establish and implement "institutional regulation".
Qin Hong, deputy director of the policy research center of the Ministry of housing and construction, believes that these systems should include: land market system that reflects market demand changes in a timely manner, so that the real estate financial system that allows enterprises to take risks themselves can automatically regulate the real estate tax system of housing resources occupation and income distribution.
In addition, the construction and supply of affordable housing should continue to accelerate.
Local governments should make greater efforts to increase investment and speed up construction. After several years' efforts, the proportion of affordable housing in the housing supply system will be greatly improved.
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