How To Win The CPI&Nbsp In The New Year?

In January 12th, the Agricultural Bank of China and Deutsche Bank published the 2011 China macro. Economics According to the forecast report, China's CPI will show a trend of high and low in 2011, and the price increase will be higher in the two quarter. The second half of the year will gradually drop, and the overall upward trend is expected to continue. Increase interest It is necessary to wait. In the face of high CPI, how should the public respond? The current economic salon invited Wang Kaiyu, a researcher at the Anhui Academy of Social Sciences, and Wen Xin Meng, a customer manager of Guoxin Securities, asking them to help the public and dispel doubts about some hot issues.

　　 No malignancy inflation

In 2010, the economic trend was just around the corner. It just got through the financial crisis and gained sustained economic growth. In the first half of last year, the rise in food prices was mainly driven by higher prices. Inflation actually turned into reality in the second half of the year. It affected every ordinary people's food basket and rice bag, and this year there will be new economic phenomena. The underlying reason for the continued rise in prices has not been completely eliminated. Therefore, the CPI index may still rise after the Spring Festival, but it will not become part of the hyperinflation in 1997. People living in the market economy have a brand-new understanding and response ability to the price problem. But how to deal with price increases has become a concern for every ordinary people.

Price is not only an economic problem, but also a social problem. Because our wage level, social security, health care, housing, education and so on are still in a relatively low position, and because of the widening gap between the rich and the poor, people's living standards are becoming more and more uneven. Therefore, there are many factors to solve the problem of price. At present, the most important thing for us is to solve the problem of establishing a benign consumer market. Facing the inflation market, we have to make an issue in the consumer market. In the face of inflation, we should learn to be good at spending money, be good at consumption, and do everything possible to maintain our standard of living. We prefer to spend some money and pay attention to the quality of our lives. As long as conditions permit, you cannot save money at the expense of your health and living standards. We should learn to consume and grasp the trend of market consumption in this process. In inflation, learning to consume is also an input to the establishment of the consumer market and the consumer society. If we want to consume, we must have money. We should try our best to find money from employment, spend money and improve our life.

　　 CPI may rise after the holidays

Reporter: what do you think about the trend of consumer spending and the trend of CPI in 2011? Why is there no hyperinflation in 1997?

Wang: CPI will remain high this year. The pressure of inflation is still great. However, the possibility of deterioration is not great and there will be no hyperinflation in the 90s of last century. This round of inflation is obviously much more rational than ordinary people.

Reporter: what kind of impact will macroeconomic regulation exert on prices this year?

Wang: macro regulation and control must be necessary. We should control it continuously, or the price will go to the sky. At the end of last year, the government's macro regulation of the prices of edible oil and vegetables would reduce the CPI pressure in January. In the second half of this year, CPI will continue to rise. Macroeconomic regulation and control measures are still necessary for stabilizing prices in the second half of the year.

　　 Saving money is better than investing.

Reporter: under the high CPI, how should the ordinary people consume rationally?

Wang: inflation will surely have a substantial impact on the lives of ordinary people. Under the high CPI, the ordinary people should consume or consume. Desperately saving and saving is equal to paying the money. The former way of life must be changed, and desperately saving money to the end, it must be the poorer and poorer, and then the government will help them. Finally, it must be the result. However, I do not advocate excessive consumption and overdraft consumption.

Reporter: how can people invest in financial management under high CPI?

Wang: it is better to invest rationally in order to save money. A recent survey by the central bank revealed that the willingness of the nation to invest has reached a record high. In my opinion, no time to invest blindly, in the current circumstances, there is excess capital, it is best to invest in themselves, invest in health and education, and enhance the right to speak in their lives.

　　 Wen Meng Guoxin Securities customer manager financial advice may wish to open a small financial account to explore the way.

Over the past 30 years since reform and opening up, the average value of CPI has exceeded 5%, of which 1/3 has more than 6% CPI, and CPI has reached 18.8% and 24.1% in 1988 and 1994 respectively. (according to the National Bureau of Statistics) in the context of CPI rising, we must learn to manage money and learn to "earn money". At present, there are many hot spots in financial investment, such as fried gold, fund, stock, futures, treasury bonds, savings, bonds, foreign exchange, insurance, bank's financial products, jewellery and so on. We should choose suitable varieties for financial management, do well in the management of personal property or family property, so that the funds in our hands can be insured and appreciated. Everyone and every family can not be unified according to their own income and different financial management concepts. However, they can manage their assets reasonably after financing. We can try to open a household, invest less in the first place, and learn while operating, so as to realize the preservation and appreciation of property.

First of all, we should have a general understanding of the classification and characteristics of financial products. Generally speaking, financial products are divided into two main categories, one is fixed income products based on investment bonds, bank deposits and Monetary Fund, the other is floating income products such as investment in new shares, stocks, stocks, futures and gold. The former has small risk but relatively low return, and the latter is more risky, but the rate of return is higher than the former. Secondly, we must make a survey of the financial product line, pre income, social evaluation and public recognition of a bank to be purchased, so as to make reference to improve the pertinence and effectiveness of financial management. Thirdly, the product is to be read in detail, including its time limit, investment direction, portfolio, revenue expectation, risk situation and so on. Only by thorough understanding can we make a correct judgement that we can adapt to our income level, risk preference and financial plan.

　　 What is the "annualized rate of return"?

　 With the promotion of bank financial products, some investors may see the new term "annualized yield". In fact, the annualized yield is calculated by converting the current yield (daily yield, weekly yield and monthly rate of return) to the adult return rate, which is a theoretical rate of return, not a real rate of return. For example, a financial product sold by a bank, known as a 91 day annual yield of 3.1%, then you bought 100 thousand yuan, in fact, you can receive interest of 100 thousand x 3.1% x 91/365=772.88 yuan, definitely not 3100 yuan. It should also be noted that the financial products of general banks are not as interest bearing as the banks do on a regular basis. Financial products have subscription period, liquidation period and so on. The principal amount during this period is not to calculate interest or to calculate interest only.

　 - a master's point of view

It is expected that interest rates will rise two to three times this year.

Hu Xinzhi, general manager of the strategic management department of the Agricultural Bank of China, said that the possibility of raising interest rates 2-3 times in 2011 is more likely to increase interest rates by 50-75 basis points. But at the same time, he also believes that the central bank is more inclined to use the reserve ratio, and the statutory reserve requirement rate is expected to increase 3-5 times. The renminbi will maintain a slight gradual appreciation trend.

Ma Jun, chief economist of Greater China in Deutsche Bank, expects that the reserve requirement will continue to rise several times this year, raising interest rates by 75 basis points and RMB appreciation by 4%-5%. The intensity of tightening mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Ma Jun said that in the first half of this year, inflation continued to rise, due to the uncertainty of inflation itself and the uncertainty of the resulting tightening policy, the stock market would face greater resistance.