Why Is The Market Weak? There Are Many Conditions For Style Conversion.
Why is the market weak?
We can think about why there was a small bull market last year and blue chips.
bear market
And why we need to switch now.
The author believes that the background of the weakness of the small cap stocks and the weakening of the heavyweight stocks is due to the pition period of China's stock market.
From the end of 2005 to 2006, A shares ushered in the first important period of pformation in this century. The market capital composition is more abundant, and the expansion of institutional investors' power makes it expand.
equity market
The amplitude, volume and expansion rate of new shares all witnessed rapid development; and 2010 is the second important pitional period, resulting in the full circulation process.
market
When the right to speak of funds is passively reduced, the funds can not afford to lift large blue chips, and the profit pattern brought by stock index futures has changed dramatically, making the main capital no need to gain profits by unilaterally rising, but having more complex and covert ways to make profits.
So for small and medium-sized capital groups, in order to survive, it is necessary to pform, or join other groups to participate in a series of more advanced operations such as stock index futures, or go to the small and medium-sized stocks in the small demand stocks with little demand for funds.
Industrial concept, in fact, because traditional economic sectors such as finance, real estate and iron and steel are regulated by such kind of regulation, new industries are needed to replace them, but this process is rather long, and which industry can really become unknown. Since no one can tell clearly, it is natural to raise funds for opportunities. Many companies also put on such a concept and get a high price earnings ratio issue. It was originally sold for food and changed their name to biotechnology, and equipment manufacturing became high-tech energy saving, and power products changed to nuclear energy industry. When high priced new shares frequently appeared, it naturally triggered hot money's enthusiasm and speculation for small and medium-sized stocks, and the higher the speculation, the more true it was. At this time, there is another opportunity, that is, the pformation of the national economic structure has given this part of the fund a good "sword of the Shang Dynasty" - emerging.
There are huge variables in style conversion.
So sum up, capital discourse right and profit model directly lead to the weakness of the weight share, and the IPO three high phenomenon, and the "concept" imagination brought by the national economic pformation, and the pformation of the capital position have prompted the active of small and medium-sized stocks. Finally, we see that the ratio of the small and medium-sized stock market has been generally 80~100 times, while the weight share is generally in the 10~20 times range, when the time gradually accumulates, a large number of small and small new shares have been packaged, and the risks of the newly listed stocks themselves are already self evident when they are in a bigger bubble.
No one wants to pick up the last stick, so we can see that the middle and small board index is constructing a complex head section with four heads. Once the position is broken, there will be a time of intense and violent bubble behavior.
At this time, funds began to invest in the blue chip stocks which had basically fallen. Financial, real estate, steel and other sectors also gradually stepped onto the stage. It seems that the period of style change is coming.
I believe that the market wants to carry out such a large style pformation is in need of many conditions, but it is not yet available. First of all, without the massive input of capital, it is difficult for the blue chips to continue to strengthen. At the moment, big funds are ambiguous at the moment. On the one hand, they are scruple of management regulation. On the other hand, they are not aware of the market environment and are cautious and dare not invest in big forces.
Second, market trends do not support.
Style change means the decline of a hot spot and the rise of new money making effect.
Small and medium-sized stocks are at an absolute high level, and if they break the position, there will be a dense platform for a few months to become a fixed number of days, and the entire valuation system will collapse. This will inevitably lead to the collapse of the whole market. If the blue chip sector is unable to form a new money making effect at this time, the whole stock market will fall into a downturn.
The last is the time factor. If the small plate hard landing and blue chips pull the way of style conversion, then I am afraid that it will not be a bull market. It is probably a bear market. In 2011, the real trend is that the unfavorable factor of the market is to prepare for the bull market in 2012. Therefore, the market style pformation will not be realized in the short term, but the pition period. On the one hand, the blue chip stock will keep the center of gravity. On the other hand, the small and medium sized stocks will have a weak land repair value system.
Therefore, investors should not overlook the so-called Spring Festival quotations and the first quarter quotations, or even the bull market in 2011. Those impractical markets need to be run step by step rather than castles in the air.
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