Review And Outlook Of 2010 Cotton Yarn Market

Abstract: in 2010, the whole cotton yarn market can only be described by "100 years' experience". It has gone through the craziness and confusion of inflation, and has experienced painful memories. However, with the improvement of the whole cotton yarn technology content, the emergence of all kinds of vortex spinning, compact spinning and Ruyi spinning has also promoted a number of advanced textile enterprises.

At the same time, after the financial turmoil of 2008,

The first is 2010.

The price of all cotton yarn in 2010 continued to be high, mainly because the cost of cotton was recognized by the market.

Figure 2 is the price and profit curve chart of the spinning price of 32S cotton combed ring in 2010.

Review of domestic cotton yarn Market in January and 2010

In 2010, the price of all cotton yarn in China has gone out of record highs, and has driven the price of the related industry chain to advance by leaps and bounds.

Looking back at 2010 of all cotton yarn quotations, it is appropriate to describe "100 years".

Based on the price trend of chart two and the sales situation of the market, we roughly divided it into seven stages.

The price of yarn dropped slightly in 1-2 months, and the yarn price rebounded in 3-5 months, and began to go up. In 6-9 months, the price of the yarn basically stabilized, and the profit increased significantly. From October, the yarn price rose sharply, and the situation of the yarn price rising against cotton appeared in the middle. However, the sharp rise in November also brought huge profits to the yarn. The cotton yarn began to drop sharply in the middle and late 11 months, but from December, the price of all cotton yarn also showed signs of stabilizing and recovering.

The price of yarn dropped slightly in 1-2 months, with a slight loss.

In 1-2, due to the influence of the Spring Festival and the off-season, the whole cotton yarn market is basically in a stalemate. In January, it coincided with the Spring Festival approaching. When the Spring Festival arrived in February, the festival did not bring any positive impact on the market.

Years ago, the collection of receivables, the payment of workers' wages, benefits and bonuses, and the widespread shortage of funds in the textile industry were all more and more important along with the approaching of the lunar new year. Enterprises stopped production and holidays, factory start-up rates decreased, product demand declined, and cotton yarn shipments declined, prices continued to fall and inventories increased.

By the end of the month, the mainstream price of the 32S combed cotton knitted yarn market was 21500-22000 yuan / ton, and the 40S combed woven yarn market was quoted at 22500-23000 yuan / ton, and the 32S combed yarn price was 25000 yuan / ton, and 40S reached 26000 yuan.

In terms of profit, 1-2 months, cotton prices are basically stable under the impetus of the reduction in production storm. In the face of "falling or falling" cotton prices, the cotton price decline is not against cotton yarn. Therefore, the profit margins of the whole cotton yarn have been "emptied" this month, and the yarn price is basically flat.

The price of yarn rebounded in 3-5 months, and profits rose.

After the short press of the Spring Festival, the whole cotton yarn showed a good resilience since March, and prices rose again and again.

A large factory in Liaocheng, Shandong, has risen 9 times in March, or 8-10%.

Subsequently, as the weather turned warm, the rise of summer clothing fabrics led to the consumption of all cotton yarn, and the rise in cotton prices also brought support for the rise of all cotton yarn. Cotton yarn prices rose repeatedly at a time. By the end of May, the mainstream price of the 32S combed yarn Market was at 25900 yuan / ton, and the price of 40S combed yarn was 26800 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton 32S combed yarn ticket price was 28850 yuan / ton, and the 40S combed yarn price was 29850 yuan / ton, which was about 4000 yuan higher than the end of February.

From a profit perspective, this month's yarn profit presents a "inverted V" trend, and its change is determined only by the price ratio of cotton and cotton yarn. Since March, cotton prices have been rising repeatedly, but the rally is not against cotton yarn, and profit margins have begun to pick up. The profit of 40S cotton spinning ring spun yarn has been raised to 1800 yuan and the profit margin is about 8%.

Subsequently, because of the price of yarn is basically slow, plus cotton growth, profit margins have also dropped slightly.

However, in the 3-5 month's peak season, the profit of cotton yarn has been kept within the range of 800-1100 yuan, with a profit margin of around 5%.

In 6-8 months, the price of yarn was stable and profits increased sharply.

In 6-8, cotton prices continued to remain stable due to the impact of cotton throwing and new import cotton quotas. Although the market was optimistic about the market outlook, the price continued to wander, and the peak season market was over, and the cotton planting area was basically unchanged from last year.

However, the cotton yarn market is stimulated by the cotton gap. At the same time, the downstream buyers are worried about the impact of the low quality of new flowers on the quality of cotton yarn. At the same time, they also tighten up the purchase quantity. The more explicit payment of goods by other manufacturers has caused the rise of the cotton yarn market again.

However, the magic of the off-season is obvious after all, and the price of cotton yarn has been difficult to rise again. At the same time, the stability of cotton has also brought about a long-term stability, and the profit has basically recovered to the previous high level.

By the end of September, cotton yarn remained at the end of May, and prices remained unchanged.

In the 6-8 month, with the help of throwing storage, the problem of cotton shortage was basically a hole in the hole, and the stability of cotton prices and the high price of yarn made cotton yarn profits continue to be high.

In 6-8 months, the profit of cotton yarn was maintained at around 2000 yuan, and the profit margin was stable at about 10%.

By the end of August, we look forward to the coming of the peak season in September, and the price of seed cotton has also begun to go public. In addition, the increase in production expectations has laid a little confidence for the coming of September, and the market continues to be strong.

Cotton cotton rose in mid 9-11.

Beginning in September, the advent of the market in the peak season has opened up the all cotton yarn raising channel. Since October, with the perfect ending of cotton throwing and storage, the tight supply of cotton spot market has led to a significant increase in cotton prices, and the support of cost surface has also given the best signal to all cotton yarns, with the price being "hot", and the sound of price rises everywhere.

In October alone, many large factories increased about 5000-8000 yuan / ton, while the long staple cotton yarn even increased by more than ten thousand yuan.

And in November, the cotton craziness was completely demonstrated. The bold and cheerful style of raising 1000 yuan also brought more cotton yarn.

As of November 10th, the price of cotton yarn jumped to the highest price in the year. The price of the 32S combs was 48000 yuan / ton, which was 8000 yuan higher than the end of October.

As far as profit is concerned, cotton yarn has been falling behind cotton since September, and profit margins have continued to decline, or even a slight loss. However, from November, the massive counterattack of cotton yarn has opened up a way for cotton yarn, and the profit margins have been constantly innovating. By the end of November 15th, cotton yarn profits have been raised to 6200 yuan / ton, with a profit margin of about 15%.

Yarn price plummeted in late November

Cotton's three limit up boards stimulate the market to be crazy, but after the boom, it is now plummeting.

With the introduction of a series of policies, and the central bank's monetary tightening policy and other negative factors suddenly, the hype atmosphere suddenly turned pale, the market abruptly changed, the panic arises spontaneously, the shipment began to become difficult, and the large number of orders in the early stage also did not break down.

Under the attack of bad atmosphere, cotton yarn also slipped down. As of the end of the month, the mainstream quotation of 32S cotton and combed high yarn market dropped to 4000 yuan / ton, while the mainstream quotation of 32S combed yarn market dropped to 420000 yuan / ton, fell back to the level at the beginning of the month, and the profit situation also dropped to 4000 yuan.

December profits return to "original" {page_break}

After the ups and downs of November, the market of cotton yarn has dropped significantly in this month. However, with the coming of the new year, the storehouse of textile enterprises and traders have brought much vitality to the market. With the optimistic market after the festival, many small and medium-sized textile enterprises have replenishment in proper quantities. In the short term, a large number of orders have been presented, which has also made cotton spinning enterprises feel good and the price of yarn has been rising steadily.

By the end of the month, the mainstream price of the 32S combed high quality cotton yarn market was 37000 yuan / ton, and the price of 40S combed cotton blended yarn was 38000-40000 yuan / ton. The price of 32S combed yarn was 40000-41000 yuan / ton, and 40S combed yarn was 42000 yuan / ton. The quotation was 2000 yuan higher than that of the beginning of the month.

However, the cotton market in December also rebounded along with the impact of "gap theory". The rally exceeded cotton yarn, and profits returned to "original" at one stroke. By the end of December, the profit margins of 40S cotton combed yarn fell back to less than 2000 yuan, and the profit margins of some low-priced yarns were only a few hundred yuan, with a profit margin of less than 1%.

Two. Analysis of influencing factors of domestic yarn Market

We know that cotton in 2010 has gone out of a big bull market. The price of 33000 yuan has refreshed the new high price of domestic cotton. However, after all, the brilliance is just the glory of the past. It is hard to predict whether the previous 33000 yuan high will happen again in 2011. However, from the perspective of market consumption, the high price can hardly be accepted by the downstream consumers.

2.1 cotton production, supply and marketing situation

Balance sheet of cotton supply and demand in China (unit: 10000 tons)

Time output, consumption, import end inventory, inventory consumption ratio

1998/1999450.7407.12.5501.5123%

1999/2000383.2463.82.5386.683%

2000/2001442511.75.2312.561%

2001/2002531.3566.19.828049%

2002/2003492.1598.749205.934%

2003/200448670519213519%

2004/2005659.7838.2139400.448%

2005/2006618.3979.8419.9490.750%

2006/2007772.91088.6230.5447.141%

2007/2008805.61110.4251446.440%

2008/2009799.1958152.348751%

2009/2010685.81017.9737.737136%

2010/2011653.21023.3326.6287.828%

From China's cotton supply and demand balance table, we can see that in recent ten years, domestic cotton output has increased by only 50%, while cotton consumption has increased by more than 100%. The gap between supply and demand has directly given foreign cotton great business opportunities, and the import volume has remained at a higher level for many years, which is extremely unfavorable for domestic cotton production.

It can be seen from the table that the supply of domestic cotton has shown a decreasing trend in recent years, although the decline is small. However, with the increasing trend of consumption, the gap between supply and demand of cotton is gradually increasing.

In addition, inventory consumption fell to 28% this year, which is a relatively low value in recent years.

For two consecutive years, cotton production has consumed a lot of invisible stock, resulting in a lower inventory consumption ratio this year to 03/04.

2.2 the output of all cotton yarn in the past three years.

Fig. three is a comparison map of cotton production in the past three years, {page_break}

From figure three, we can see that in the past three years, the output of all cotton yarns has been growing at a rate of more than 10%. In addition to the influence of the Spring Festival and the financial crisis in January 2009, the output of the whole cotton yarn is slightly lower than that of the other month, showing a relatively good rise in the rest months. This indicates that the whole cotton yarn market has been greatly recovered after the financial crisis, and it also shows the further improvement of the market consumption power.

However, the faster growth rate has brought a slight threat to the stability of the market. Although the market demand grew rapidly in 2010 because of the impact of the stock market alone, but in 2011, it continued to be under the pressure of RMB appreciation, and exports were hard to say.

According to the data of China Cotton Association, the output of cotton yarn in 2010 1-11 was 24 million 865 thousand tons, an increase of 14.8% over the same period last year. It is expected to reach 27 million T in the whole year, an increase of 14.2% over the same period last year.

50% tons of cotton and 13 million 500 thousand tons of cotton.

The actual output of cotton is only 6 million 500 thousand tons, with a shortfall of 7 million tons.

Although the emergence of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber has replaced many of the components of cotton, the cotton gap has always been the lingering pain of cotton yarn.

2.3 domestic cotton output analysis

Figure four summarizes cotton production in China in the past seven years.

As can be seen from Figure 4, cotton production has been increasing gradually in the past seven years, which will inevitably lead to the follow of the domestic cotton yarn market.

2.4 textile and garment import and export data analysis

Figure five is a comparison chart of export data for textiles and clothing in the past three years (amount: US $10000).

Fig. six compares the export data of textiles in the past three years (amount: US $10000) {page_break}

Figure seven is a comparison chart of export data for clothing in the past three years (amount: US $10000).

From figure five to figure seven, we can see that although the export data of textile and clothing show an upward trend, and 2010, compared to 2009, the growth rate is also more gratifying. However, compared with 2008, the data are basically maintained. Clothing export data and textile and garment export volume have not changed significantly, nor has the market brought direct benefits. The soaring cost has not been directly reflected in the export market. Moreover, as the cost continues to improve, the market shipments also show a decreasing trend.

On the one hand, the European debt crisis has continued, the exchange rate frictions have intensified, and the "trade war" has also intensified the deterioration of the external environment. At the same time, China's textile industry is also facing the pressure of rising cost of raw materials such as labor, raw materials, fuel power and so on, and the situation in 2011 is not optimistic.

2.5 profit analysis of all cotton yarn

Figure eight shows the profit analysis of 32S combed cotton yarn in the past three years.

According to figure eight, the profit of cotton yarn in 2010 is obviously better than that in 2008 and 2009.

As can be seen from the graph, the profit of cotton yarn in 2010 has been stable for 2000-4000 yuan / ton for a long time, and the profit margin is near 10%.

However, the huge profit has brought considerable income to cotton spinning enterprises, and has also increased the downstream resistance.

2.6 comparison of price difference with related substitute yarns

Fig. nine compares the price difference of full cotton yarn and related substitution yarn in 2010.

Figure ten is the profit comparison chart of the three major conventional yarns in 2010.

According to figures nine and ten, the price difference relationship between all cotton yarn and cotton and polyester yarn has been slightly enlarged. The price difference of all cotton yarn and polyester yarn is over 10000 yuan, and the balance of the market tends to be on the side of polyester yarn. The profit situation is also different. The whole cotton yarn keeps a higher profit all year round, while polyester yarn and cotton yarn only find their own position in the boom season of November, and they can catch up with the profit of cotton yarn.

However, according to the annual profit analysis, the profit of the whole cotton yarn has been magnified, and the profit margins of 2000-4000 yuan have been maintained for a long time, so that other textile enterprises are very jealous.

Three, 2011 cotton market outlook {page_break}

After the changes in 2010, we will face severe challenges and rare opportunities in 2011.

Among them, measures to promote consumption have accelerated domestic textile consumption, and the current shortage of cotton has also made high cotton prices inevitable. The support of cost has also contributed to the uplink of the whole cotton yarn. In addition, the European and American economies are gradually easing. Although the unemployment rate in Europe is still high, the European debt crisis has gradually found the way to solve the problem under the attention of the world.

However, in the time of 2009 and 2010, the domestic cotton textile enterprises increased their production capacity more rapidly, mostly for small and medium enterprises, and their ability to resist pressure was insufficient. It was easy to drown in the tide. In addition, the overcapacity of the textile industry had to be mentioned. In addition, foreign trade barriers were still growing, while the pressure of RMB appreciation continued, and the "small profits" of textiles were also reduced.

However, chaos leads to heroes.

Although there are still many unknown factors in the textile industry in 2011, opportunities and challenges exist for the textile enterprises that are undergoing pformation and upgrading.

In 2010, China's textile and clothing exports totaled more than US $200 billion, and the yarn production also showed a recovery growth, mainly due to the western stock going out after the outbreak of the financial crisis, while the late replenishment also exacerbated the "explosion" level.

However, in 2011, with the slowdown of the global economy, the slowing down of consumer demand, the appreciation of the renminbi and so on, and the high cost of domestic raw materials, the market situation is still full of uncertainty.