Annual Logic Of Small And Medium Size: Five Degree Split Valuation Fierce Collision

After more than a year of hustle and bustle, the value of small and medium sized boards and GEM stocks under the banner of high growth must be re examined by the market.

Analyzing the path of the myth of the gem, we find that it has always been not supported by high growth, but the result of policy function, market structure and capital collusion. It will also be disillusioned with the changes of the three.

And the annual report to be published is undoubtedly the growth of the GEM companies to prove their growth, if the annual report is not ideal, that is, the last fall of the GEM board.

The five stages of division

The gem has been accepted by the market from the high valuation, and has been controversial. Finally, it is gradually becoming reasonable under the lifting of the ban and policy expectations.

In the middle of the year, when the small and medium-sized boards went crazy alone, they began to adjust at the end of the year, and the valuation of blue chips was near the bottom.

We divide the process into five stages:

The first stage is from the launch of the growth enterprise market to April 2010. We call it the stage of brewing division.

The valuation system of small stock and big stock began to split up, and the valuation of small and medium board and the valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 shares were separated from the initial consensus.

From the start of the growth enterprise market to November 2009, gem, small and medium-sized boards and main board rose simultaneously, the motherboard increased by 11.74%, and the SME board index increased by 18.04%.

Although the average price earnings ratio of the 28 GEM companies is 55.7 times, the high valuation of the gem has been accepted by the market.

From the end of November 2009 to the next April, the valuation system of small board, gem and motherboard began to separate.

During this period, the regulation and control policies of real estate were introduced and the reserve ratio of central bank increased, making the valuation of blue chip finally lower, and the growth enterprise board drives the small and medium-sized board to continue upward.

At the same time, small and medium-sized plates rose 973.52 points, or 17.514%.

The second stage is the first split phase, from April 2010 to July.

A shares ushered in a systemic crash in this period.

The third stage is from the end of July to the end of September. We call it the second division stage. At this stage, the market share has risen in a wave, and the valuation has increased to 20 times compared with the previous stage, and has remained stable.

However, the average valuation of small and medium-sized boards has increased from 40 times to 50 times, and the gem has reached an average of 67.92 times higher in August.

The fourth stage is the 9. 30 market.

At this time, the blue chip riots, A shares stood on 3100 points again, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index swept away.

The fifth stage is the myth breaking stage, that is, since mid November.

The index of small and medium board promotes the gem index, and the new high can not break through. The growth myth is finally cracked.

At the same time, with the gradual landing and deepening of the policy, the valuation of blue chip is near the bottom.

Myth of overestimation

From the launch of the gem to the following April, despite the high price earnings ratio of the gem, the market still pays the bills, and investors are full of growth of the GEM companies.

By the second half of 2010, the situation has undergone subtle changes, and small and medium-sized boards have become the main force in the market.

First of all, the growth of the growth enterprise market was weak. The myth of valuation went to the end. There was a wave of adjustment from June to the middle of July, which fell by nearly 20%.

Small and medium sized boards are becoming stronger and stronger, showing a valuation advantage, setting a record high of 8017.67 points.

The index pmission and cross between gem and small and medium-sized boards can be said to be the restoration and correction of the market valuation system.

Since the launch of the gem, the gem has suffered from "three high", high price, high price earnings ratio and high market rate.

Another "high growth" has won market recognition.

But after half a year's test, the growth enterprise market trend began to be weak.

First of all, the performance is not optimistic, it is difficult to sustain its high price earnings ratio.

In October 2009, the average price earnings ratio of GEM listed companies was 56.6 times that of December 2010, and this figure was 75.6 times.

But over the past year, the growth of gem's listed companies has generally shown that they do not match their high valuation.

According to the interim results report of GEM listed companies in 2010, the net profit of 84 GEM companies belonging to parent shareholders in the first half was 2 billion 495 million yuan, an increase of 26.7% over the same period last year.

And the data of small and medium-sized board is 42.1%, the gap is obvious, and even some companies' performance is declining seriously, and the high growth is doubtful.

From the perspective of issuing rhythm, after July 2010, the number of GEM listed companies has increased rapidly, which has a certain dilution effect on its high valuation.

From July to September, gem issued the most intensive stock issue, issuing 33 new shares, with a monthly average of 11.

The total amount of funds raised was 3 billion 786 million 220 thousand yuan, 9 billion 854 million 260 thousand yuan and 5 billion 832 million 100 thousand yuan respectively.

The amount of capital raised from October to December was 9 billion 265 million 740 thousand yuan, 6 billion 173 million 730 thousand yuan and 14 billion 384 million 660 thousand yuan respectively.

From this set of data, we can see that in August, October and December were three months of strong funds, and the gem index was also hovering near the bottom of the three months.

At the same time, since the second half of 2010, gem has gradually welcomed the reduction and selling of small businesses, which has also put pressure on supply.

The first batch of restricted shares was lifted in November 1, 2010.

According to Wind information statistics, on the same day, the number of shares lifted by 27 GEM companies was close to 1 billion 196 million shares, and their total circulation capital stock was only 1 billion 30 million shares.

Since then, gem has high cash in circulation.

The difference between the gem and the small and medium sized boards is that the trend of the whole year is relatively weak. From October to the middle of November, there is a lack of continuous strength.

Macro policy regulation is a very important factor.

The tightening of the real estate policy and the increase of interest rate are expected to be over.

Since the beginning of 2011, the collective breakage of new stocks is also an example of the disillusionment of its overvalued value. The market has begun to return to reason, and the valuation system has entered the correction stage.

The last straw

How can we deduce the myth of the gem? Through our analysis, we find that it has always been not supported by high growth, but rather the result of policy action, market structure and capital collusion.

On the one hand, the signal that China's economy is gradually warming in 2009 is clear, which makes the market generally optimistic about the future performance of listed companies. Institutional investors generally give higher price earnings ratio to companies issued in 2009.

On the other hand, it is a good expectation for the growth of GEM listed companies.

The state's support for the gem has also made the GEM listed companies expand rapidly, and the number of the initial 28 households has changed to 82 in six months.

With the change of policy, market structure and capital, the myth of gem is bound to be disillusioned.

For example, now the regulatory policy is landing, the gem continues to expand, the market valuation system rectify the big blue chips, and the industrial capital continues to reduce.

In the middle of November 2010, the breakage of new shares reached the peak at this stage. During that time, a total of 9 new shares broke down on the first day of listing, including 5 new shares listed on January 18, 2011.

High level cash flow is becoming more and more intensive. In early November, China Star Trading (300025, stock bar), Silver River share (300020, stock bar), Zhongyuan Huadian (300018, stock bar) and Li Si Chen (300010, stock bar) are still on the list. In the two cities of the small and medium sized board, the first high priced shares of the Yanghe River (002304, stock bar) reached a peak of 283.8 yuan in November 23rd, and no further breakthrough could be made. The lifting of the ban shares began to decrease, and the share price fell all the way. The closing price for January 20, 2011 was 215.81 yuan, and the market value of two yuan was steamed 30 billion 600 million yuan.

What is the current state of the growth enterprise market? From the attitude of PE and two market participants, they still choose to sell, so the adjustment of the gem has not yet been completed.