Cotton Supply Shortage &Nbsp; Will Cotton Wave Again?

The price of Cotton Futures (322751775.00,5.82%) surged more than ten thousand yuan per ton last year, and cotton yarn rose by more than 15 thousand yuan per ton.

Recently, a series of news from China to the United States, India did not expand exports, Australia continued heavy rain and so on. Zheng cotton came out of five Lian Yang. Last Friday, Zheng Mian 1109 stood on 30 thousand yuan again, and its position increased from 25794 to 273588.

Cotton dependence on foreign countries is more than 30%.

Cotton futures analyst He Zhuoqiao said cotton supply is tight at home and abroad.

The world's three largest cotton producer: China accounts for about 1/4 of global production, India accounts for about 1/4, and the United States accounts for about 18% of global output.

In 2009~2010,

Global cotton inventories were 55% from August 2008 to August 2009 and 36.99% from August 2009 to August 2010.

From August 2010 to August 2011, this figure is expected to further decrease.

China is the first big country in cotton production and demand.

However, there has been a significant gap in cotton supply in recent two years.

The 14 daily report of the January Cotton Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences reported that China's cotton output in 2010 dropped by 14.6% from 2009 to 5 million 700 thousand tons.

According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, China has accumulated in 2010.

He Zhuoqiao introduced that China's cotton imports accounted for almost 50% of the total cotton production last year.

China's cotton import quota has increased to 3 million 200 thousand tons this year.

China's external dependence on cotton has exceeded 30%.

With the shortage of supply and global liquidity, soft goods such as cotton, sugar (7183,46.00,0.64%), coffee and so on became the focus of fund speculation last year, and prices rose sharply.

Before September last year, the domestic cotton futures price was 19000 yuan / ton, which was quickly pulled up, and the highest price in November was 33600 yuan / ton.

Over the same period, 32 domestic cotton combed yarns were raised from 26000 yuan / ton to 43000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of September last year, the price of US cotton was less than 90 cents / pound to 159 dollars / pound.

The industry has been amazed by such a large increase in such a short period of time.

La Nina leads to a reduction in cotton production

Affected by La Nina this year, Australian floods have affected cotton production areas. The Australian cotton growers association estimates that Australia's cotton production will be reduced by 10%, which will lead to a reduction in Australian cotton exports.

CFA futures analyst Wang Congying analysis, this year, the world's export of cotton is expected to be 8 million tons, which can meet China's imports, that is, 3 million 200 thousand tons. This year's cotton supply shortage pattern is difficult to change.

Cotton reached a new high of {page_break} before the first quarter.

He Zhuoqiao said that the cotton planting area will be clear after the first quarter of this year.

Cotton will be further hyped up before the first quarter, and cotton prices will be as high as 35000 yuan / ton.

Therefore, cotton can be seen more before April this year.

He believes that as long as the planting area is determined, the late weather factors will not affect the cotton too much.

Wang Congying said that the price of cotton prices will shift upward along with the price of sugar this year, and cotton prices will have a chance to go up to a new high.

However, He Zhuoqiao believes that cotton prices will increase by 10% this year due to a record cotton price. After April, cotton prices will slow down and stabilize in the range of 24000 yuan / ton to 25000 yuan / ton.

He said that downstream cotton production enterprises should adapt to the high cotton price era.

Two analysts have reminded investors that this year, we should pay special attention to the contraction of national monetary policy, which will directly inhibit speculative speculation.