In-Depth Analysis: Cotton Spinning Industry Development And Cotton Price Future Trend

　 Recently, Mei Xinyu, an Associate Research Fellow of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, has made an in-depth analysis of the future trend of cotton prices in 2010 under the development of the global cotton industry and the global asset bubble.

I. Global cotton spinning Pattern adjustment and strategic layout of China's cotton industry

There is no doubt that China is the largest cotton producer and consumer in the world. It is also a big exporter of textile production and clothing. It can be said that the textile and garment industry plays an extremely important role in China. But we need to pay attention to whether China's comparative advantage in the textile and garment industry can last for a long time. We must soberly realize that from the historical experience, the textile and garment industry will inevitably shift along with the development of the economy. It is doubting whether China can maintain the global dominance of textile and apparel in the future.

In brief, there are two obvious examples. From the international point of view, Britain was once a great power and powerful country in textile and clothing industry. However, in 1880, with the strong economy of the United States, the textile and garment industry in the United States became a major industry and replaced the world's first strong position in textile and apparel industry in the United Kingdom. After that, with the strong and industrial adjustment of the US economy, the status of textile and garment industry declined absolutely in the United States and basically withdrew from the top ten industries of the United States. From the domestic example, when China liberated, China's textile and garment industry was most developed. However, at present, the textile and garment industry of the textile industry can obviously see that its economic status has declined.

As can be seen from the above examples, China's cotton textile pattern will surely emerge from coast to inland and from China to foreign countries. After all, textile and clothing is a relatively sensitive industry, and it will go for low cost. At present, the labor cost of Vietnam's market is less than 900 yuan a month.

In fact, this trend has already emerged. The Chinese government has always encouraged "going out". Many Chinese enterprises have begun to invest in overseas factories. At the same time, according to the survey, textile and clothing, shoes and caps occupy the absolute main force in overseas manufacturing investment. Perhaps the government underestimated China's ability to shift its textile production capacity overseas. The scale of the transfer of local textile capacity to overseas should not be underestimated, and the scale of the future will certainly be greater.

From 2009 Exit In fact, the decline of traditional labor intensive type is smaller than that of electromechanical equipment, but we need to carefully analyze the reasons. In fact, the main reason is that our overseas competitors are not very stable in macro-economy and therefore suffer a lot. So objectively speaking, this crisis has helped us eliminate some of our competitors, but this is a short-term phenomenon. In the medium and long term, overseas production capacity can not be ignored. Overseas investment trend of textile and garment can not be stopped. Under such circumstances, how should the cotton industry respond?

At present, there are two ways, one is to transfer to the mainland, the other is to transfer overseas. The first way is to say no more. We will mainly talk about the issue of transferring overseas. First of all, we must accurately locate industrial safety. Because China imports a lot of cotton, most of the cotton produced in China is made into garments and exported because if we don't need to import too much cotton from the aspect of industrial safety. Secondly, we need to start industrial transfer in a timely manner; we need to prepare for the equal market access status for cotton exports early, not only including cotton, but also circulation enterprises. At present, this problem seems to be premature, because at present, China's cotton exports and imports are basically not comparable. However, those who do not seek to compete for the first time do not want to seek temporary development. We need to co-ordinate arrangements in advance and make layout as early as possible. At the same time, considering the preparation of this matter, it is not easy for the host country to be subjected to strong resistance and not easily to be in conflict. Otherwise, when China exports a lot of cotton, it will cost too much to seek market position. Third, we must improve cotton quality; fourth, Global trade rules may be adjusted, and we must actively participate in them. At present, the high subsidies of the United States have a strong impact on their competitors, but as China's exports increase, perhaps export subsidies are more suitable for China's interests.

Two, the future price trend of cotton under the global asset bubble.

As for the future trend of asset prices, the situation seems to be more optimistic. But I don't think so. There is no permanent trend.

The main reason for this surge in asset prices is ultra loose monetary policy. But this is loose. monetary policy It is not sustainable. Once the global economy is stable, the United States tightens monetary policy and abolish the zero interest rate policy. The reversal of global capital flows will have a big impact on the prices of real estate, stock market and commodities. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the possibility of monetary policy changes. {page_break}

This financial crisis is different from the previous crisis. Most of the previous crises had a negative effect on developing countries and had little impact on the developed countries. However, this crisis had a greater impact on developed countries such as Europe and the United States, directly weakened their hard and soft power, and objectively enhanced the strength of developing countries such as China. However, we must not neglect that in the past crisis, these developed countries may take measures to weaken the gradually enhanced international competitiveness of developing countries. The simplest measure is to change the monetary policy, which has led to the bursting of the bubble and the blow of the emerging countries. Therefore, we should also be cautious about cotton prices.