The "Labor Dividend" Is Fading Away. The Pformation And Upgrading Of The Textile Industry Is Imminent.

Although 2010

In 2010, just out of the financial and haze of the textile and garment industry, investment, consumption and export "three carriages" went hand in hand; textile industry output value, products and output continued to grow, and the profitability of the industry increased significantly.

According to the recent 2010 China Textile Industry Economic Operation Analysis conference, the total output value of the textile industry in 2010 was 47650 billion yuan, 1.31 times higher than that in 2005, and the profitability of the industry increased significantly. The profit rate and total assets contribution rate were 5.44% and 13.89%, respectively, which was 1.91 or 4.72 percentage points higher than that in 2005. The actual investment in the whole industry was 400 billion 600 million yuan in 2010, 1.51 times higher than that in 2005.

But these can not hide the real worries that the industry can not avoid. The original development mode has been difficult to continue.

In 2011, at the beginning of 12th Five-Year, how to change the mode of economic development and promote industrial pformation and upgrading, China's textile industry is in urgent need of finding a new round of scientific development.

"The era of China's textile industry coming and going is over, and the era of high growth in China's consumer goods exports will end."

Sun Ruizhe, vice president of China Textile Industry Association, believes that the pformation of China's textile and garment industry from "cost oriented" to "value oriented" has been irreversible.

"Labor dividends" gradually decline

For a long time, "cost oriented", as the core competitiveness of China's textile industry, has made great progress in "made in China".

Now, a series of data is proving that the "low cost era" is fading away.

At present, China has entered the general upgrading of labor costs.

In 2010, more than 10 provinces and autonomous regions raised the minimum wage standard, and the textile industry labor remuneration rose by more than 10%, while in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other developed regions, the wage increase was as high as 20%-40%.

Data show that in 2009, the average wage of China's manufacturing industry was 56 thousand yuan, while the average wage of the textile industry was only 31 thousand yuan. The labor shortage caused by the one-way pfer of labor is no longer the seasonal contingency at the beginning of the year, and the "labor shortage" in 2010 has become a norm.

It is estimated that the employment gap in the Pearl River Delta region has reached 2 million to 3 million in 2010, while the total number of workers in the southeast coastal area has exceeded 10 million.

As labor costs continue to rise and labor shortage is intensifying, the extensive mode of economic development supported by labor dividends in China's textile industry must be pformed and upgraded.

Rising labour prices will surely become normal.

Sun Ruizhe believes that in December 2010, the central economic work conference stressed the need to increase the consumption capacity of residents, which requires increasing workers' income.

Then, the general trend of rising labor prices is irreversible.

Raw material prices continue to rise

Like the rise in labor costs, the price of raw materials has continued to rise in the textile industry.

In 2010, the cost of raw and auxiliary textiles increased by nearly 30%-80% compared to the same period last year.

Cotton prices hit a new high of nearly 15 years, breaking 20 thousand yuan / ton, leading to a 30 thousand yuan / ton mark.

Under the catalysis of the cotton spot market, in 2010 and August, the first 8 months of the year, Zheng Shang cotton futures grew 625% and 1183% year-on-year respectively, ranking first among futures commodities.

The change of supply and demand is the basic reason for the rise of cotton prices in 2010.

The report of the International Cotton Advisory Committee shows that the situation of cotton shortage has increased the price of cotton because of the increasing demand for cotton raw materials and the limited growth of cotton production.

At the same time, the reduction of cotton inventories is also a powerful promoter of cotton price rise.

World cotton inventories decreased by 24% in 2009/2010, ending 5 years of high inventory.

According to the statistics of 114 warehousing units in China by the cotton association of China, as of the end of August 2010, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover was 166 thousand tons, a decrease of 230 thousand tons per annulus. Based on this, it was estimated that the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover in China was about 205 thousand tons, which was 251 thousand tons lower than that in July.

In addition, speculative funds from the Zhongxing wind wave, but also exacerbated the cotton price "happy anger" impermanence.

In September 21, 2010, the turnover of the 1105 main contract reached 1588808 hands, and reached a record high. In November 9th, the turnover of the 1105 main contracts reached 1694108 hands, a new record high.

The price fluctuation of raw materials and excipients caused by cotton prices can be seen as a whole.

Under the "contagion" of frenzied cotton prices, the prices of chemical fibers are increasing rapidly.

In September 2010, the prices of all major chemical fiber products showed a rapid upward trend, of which polyester staple fibers rose by nearly 1000 yuan per ton per day for several days, or nearly doubled. In addition, viscose staple fibers increased by 12000 yuan per ton, or up to 67%.

Along with the overall rise of the prices of chemical fiber products, the textile raw materials market has been rising, and the prices of raw materials such as wool, cocoon silk and hemp have risen to varying degrees.

"The pain of cotton" is doomed to continue.

It is reported that in 2010/2011, China's cotton shortfall will reach a new high of about 2 million 500 thousand tons.

For the textile industry, the era of low cotton prices has gone.

The imbalance between supply and demand determines that cotton prices in the future will hardly go down. Under the influence of cotton prices, the price of the entire textile raw materials will be hovering at high levels.

However, according to the keynote set by the central economic work conference for the 2011 macroeconomic regulation and control, the industry believes that the price of textile raw materials will not fluctuate in the same way in 2010 as 2011.

"The price rise of raw materials in 2010 has made the enterprises that master the upstream resources earn a lot of money, but it has also made a wake-up call for the textile industry.

We must speed up the development of a wide range of cotton fiber substitution products to fill the gap of raw materials and balance the supply and demand relationship.

Sun Ruizhe said.

The task of energy saving and emission reduction is still arduous.

Since the "Copenhagen global environment conference" in 2009 to 2010, "responsibility for implementing your responsibility" has been launched in China's textile and garment industry. The slogan of low carbon and environmental protection is no longer a mere "armchair" in the Chinese textile industry.

Water saving, energy saving, consumption reduction and emission reduction are becoming a long way to go for textile industry.

It is understood that during the "11th Five-Year" period, China's textile industry has made rapid progress in energy conservation and environmental protection.

According to the comparable price, the comprehensive energy consumption per unit value added in the textile industry has decreased by about 40%. The growth rate of energy consumption in the industry is much lower than that in the industrial added value. The added value of the textile industry has increased by 101.18% and the energy consumption has increased by 15.71%.

At the same time, the amount of fresh water produced in the printing and dyeing industry is reduced from 4 tons to 2.5 tons, which has decreased by 37.5%.

Pollution control and resource recycling technology have been promoted to a large extent.

According to the report from the first textile network, the total energy consumption of China's textile industry accounts for 4.3% of the total industrial energy consumption in the whole country. The water consumption of Enterprises above Designated Size accounts for 8.5% of the total industrial enterprises in the country. The amount of wastewater discharge accounts for 10% of the whole country, of which 80% is printing and dyeing wastewater, and the average recycling rate is only about 10%.

According to the insiders, there are still many textile enterprises with inadequate input in energy conservation and emission reduction, and the low utilization rate of advanced technology and equipment.

Energy conservation and emission reduction is an important focus of the pformation of China's manufacturing industry in the future. From the central "12th Five-Year plan" proposal to the textile industry "12th Five-Year" outline of science and technology progress, all of them put forward clear requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction.

According to the introduction, the "50+110" project mentioned in the "outline of scientific and technological progress" of the textile industry in 12th Five-Year has 50 energy saving and environmental protection projects in 266 sub items of the 50 key technologies.

In the 110 key promotion projects, there are 34 items of energy conservation and environmental protection projects.

It can be said that energy conservation and emission reduction run through the outline of the scientific and technological progress of the textile industry.

"Now for textile industry, a major challenge is how we can get rid of this energy consumption and pollution history hat and move towards the green industry road."

Sun Ruizhe said earlier that the successful completion of the goal of energy saving and emission reduction is not only related to the sustainable and healthy development of the industry, but also a requirement for the adjustment of the industrial structure.

Speeding up the process of "Dongsheng and westward advance"

For a long time, China's textile industry has always maintained the "East heavy West light" industrial structure. In 2005, the textile output value of eastern China accounted for the peak value of textile output value, accounting for 88%.

In 2010, this pattern began to be broken.

Inland provinces have become active investment areas for textile and garment enterprises, especially in the central and western regions.

According to the China Textile Industry Association, in the 1-11 month of 2010, the proportion of textile investment in the eastern region accounted for 52.93% of the total industry investment, which was 21.04 percentage points lower than that in 2005.

The central and western regions increased by 17.96 or 3.08 percentage points respectively.

The pace of textile industry pferring to the central and western regions is accelerating.

Optimizing regional layout and promoting industrial pfer is the primary task of industrial restructuring in the plan for adjustment and revitalization of textile industry.

The industry agreed that the pfer of the textile industry in 2010 was carrying the dual responsibility of the enterprise's market behavior and the guidance of national policies.

For this reason, the momentum of development is swift and violent.

Industry authorities pointed out that as the eastern region was constrained by factors such as land and labor resources, the textile industry must be pformed and upgraded. We should give full play to the advantages of the original technology, talents and information, and develop new industries and products with high technology content and high added value. This is the inevitable trend of the eastern industrial development, and at the same time, it will make room for the development of textile industry in the Midwest.

During the "12th Five-Year" period, the proportion of textile economy in the central and western regions will rise again, and at the end of 12th Five-Year, it will occupy more than 25% of the total textile economy.

Sun Ruizhe thinks that pfer is not the move of the existing manufacturing capacity, but the shift under the guidance of the pformation of development mode.

Therefore, the final goal of the pfer of China's textile industry will be laid on the completion of industrial upgrading.

According to the IMF, the global economic growth rate will remain at 4.2% in 2011, 0.6 percentage points lower than the 2010 forecast value, and the growth rate of the developed economies is 2.2%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than that of 2010.

Industry analysts believe that in 2011, China's textile industry will face more complex situations, and this "complexity" will become a normal trend for China's textile industry.

As the "three carriages" of China's textile industry, investment, consumption and exports will be changed in 2011 due to "complexity", but the overall trend of steady recovery will not change.

First of all, the intensity of mergers and acquisitions in industry investment is likely to increase, and the pace of industrial pfer to the central and western regions will also be further accelerated.

Secondly, the adjustment of the consumption structure and the expansion of social insurance and the mention of the income multiplier plan all indicate that the prospects of the domestic market are more optimistic.

It is worth noting that the slowdown in the pace of global economic recovery and the slower growth of consumer demand may inhibit the growth of China's textile and clothing exports. In addition, the pressure of RMB appreciation will weaken the competitive advantage of Chinese textiles in the international market, and even cause the loss of some orders. At the same time, China's textile industry is also facing the pressure of rising cost of labor, raw materials, fuel power and many other factors.

Under the combined influence of these factors, it is expected that the growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports will slow down in 2011.