Textile And Clothing: Holiday Warm Wind Blowing &Nbsp; Plate Rising Trend

The Spring Festival of 2011 is drawing near. The stock of big consumption concept starts to germinate during the festival festive. Textile and clothing The plate is again subject to capital. market A high degree of concern.

　　 Two cumulative increase of 3.17%

Net inflow of 140 million yuan

In the festive atmosphere of the festival, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.49% yesterday, and the market has risen 2.68% over the past 2 days. At the same time, the textile and garment sector also rose 1.22% yesterday. During the 2 consecutive day, the textile and garment sector rose by 3.17%, and the textile industry in the fine industry rose by 1.57% in the past 2 days, while the garment industry rose 4.42%. For 2 consecutive days of rebound, the textile and garment sector also showed a net inflow of funds. On Wednesday, the net capital inflow of the industry was 64 million 151 thousand and 900 yuan. Yesterday, the net inflow of funds was 76 million 409 thousand and 200 yuan, and the total net inflow of funds amounted to 140 million yuan on two.

Statistics show that since January this year, the textile and garment sector has fallen by 7.84%. Textile industry Down 5.60%, the clothing industry fell 9.49%, during the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.10%, the plate is far away from the market.

Statistics show that the textile and garment sector increased by 12.34% in 2010, and the textile industry in its sub sectors rose by 2.85%. The apparel industry rose by 21.54% in 2010. It is clear that the listed companies in the clothing industry are more dynamic. In 2010, it became a hot spot for investment in the market.

For the investment of textile and garment sector in 2011, many organizations continued the view of last year, and agreed that consumption upgrading is the driving force of industry growth, and the choice of industry investment will be differentiated. In differentiation, leading enterprises in various sub sectors will have more opportunities for profit growth, especially in the brand clothing industry.

2011 is the opening year of the 12th Five-Year plan. The upgrading of industrial structure, the elimination of backward production capacity and the transfer of industries will become the dominant trend in the development of the textile and garment industry. Small enterprises with backward technology and small profits will gradually be eliminated, and the market resources will be more concentrated on the dominant enterprises.

The 12th Five-Year plan has made great efforts to expand consumption, raise national income and develop people's livelihood. It can be predicted that during the "12th Five-Year" period, more and more families will enter the ranks of affluent families at a faster pace. Brand clothing will undoubtedly become an important goal of consumer upgrading.

According to statistics from the General Administration of customs, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 206 billion 530 million US dollars in 2010, an increase of 24.62% over the same period last year. Among them, the total exports of textiles amounted to 677 billion 51 million US dollars, and clothing exports totaled 129 billion 478 million US dollars, with a growth rate of 27.73% and 22.83% respectively. The export volume of garments increased significantly with the two factors of increasing export orders and raising the prices of export products.

In this regard, CIC securities analysis believes that in 2011, the domestic market of textile and apparel industry continued to maintain steady growth under the environment of domestic consumption upgrading. On the export side, although the overall export growth of the industry will decline in the first half of the year, this is not an order problem, but most export oriented enterprises do not take orders with low profit margins. Small enterprises are forced to reduce orders by cost of raw materials, which will lead to the concentration of orders to large export enterprises, and leading enterprises in various sub sectors will have more choices. In 2011, leading enterprises in various sub sectors will have more opportunities for profit growth.

According to the textile industry association's statistics of 43309 enterprises, the average profit rate of the whole industry is 3.97%. There are only 3069 enterprises with profit margins exceeding 10%, accounting for 7.01% of the total, and nearly 70% of the enterprises are below 4%. In 2010, the labor cost of the domestic textile and garment industry increased by 20-30% on average. CIC believes that for large enterprises with a small profit margin of more than 10%, especially for the leading enterprises in the fine molecular industry, the volume of business will increase on the original basis because of the unbearable withdrawal of SMEs. Therefore, the cost of labor will rise. Although the performance of major textile and garment sub leading enterprises will have some impact in the short run, the industry norms will be conducive to the development of these leading enterprises in the long run.

　 Garment industry

Brand advantage will be highlighted

While looking at the overall value of the textile and garment industry in 2011, market participants put forward different investment strategies for the two major sub sectors of textiles and clothing in the textile and garment sector. For the textile industry, the industry believes that the cost can be transmitted downstream, and whether the price increase of products can solve the pressure of rising costs is an important prerequisite for whether the textile stocks have investment opportunities in 2011.

In 2011, the two major challenges faced by the textile industry were: the RMB may be revalued and the price of raw materials is high. Huatai Securities (601688) said that for large textile enterprises, exchange rate hedging and product prices can be adopted to reduce the exchange loss caused by the rising value of the currency. It is an important prerequisite for whether the textile stocks have investment opportunities in 2011 whether the price increase of products can solve the pressure of rising costs. Judging from the price changes of cotton, yarn and grey cloth this year, the three increase was 81.7%, 68.4% and 50.9% from the beginning of January.

For the clothing industry, the industry generally expects the three support factors to remain unchanged, and sales growth in 2011 may be high. Companies in fast-growing segments are more likely to succeed.

From 2004 to now, the sales of domestic brand clothing increased from 157 billion 200 million yuan to 516 billion 600 million yuan, and the annual compound growth rate of the industry was around 24%, and the leading enterprises in each sub industry were getting faster than the industry. CICC analysts believe that the factors that support China's garment industry growth in 2011 still exist, and domestic clothing sales may be high and still optimistic about the performance of brand clothing. At the same time, CICC has made an analysis of the sub sectors of the garment industry.

　　 First, men's wear: the market is large and scattered, and the trend of integration between formal dress and leisure is obvious.

The total market of men's wear is about three hundred billion yuan, the pattern of formal dress is stable, casual wear is growing rapidly, the trend of integration is obvious, the market competition is weaker than sports, and brands are still in the fast growing stage of horse race enclosure. The number of stores has increased by 1-2 times. The mid-range positioning of men's clothing brand cost-effective, endogenous growth and store expansion are relatively fast. This kind of clothing is mostly located in the consumer groups such as civil servants, teachers, white-collar workers, etc., with a unit price of around 1000 yuan, which has a certain sense of design and quality. The traditional Zhejiang formal brands such as YOUNGOR (600177), the wedding bird (002154), and the Min business casual men's wear brand (002029), and Lai Lang, which have emerged in the past ten years, are all representatives of the mid-range men's clothing. Domestic menswear brand operators mostly focus on wholesale business mode, light asset management, high profit margin (gross margin is above 3%, net interest rate is higher than 10%), and capital turnover is fast.

　　 Second, women's shoes: the leading companies have won, and the growth rate is faster than the industry average.

The size of women's shoes industry is very large, the industry order is stable, BELLE's brand is far ahead, and local brands dominate. The size of Chinese women's shoes is about one hundred billion. According to CIIIC data, the market share of the top ten brands in women's shoes market respectively increased by 30% and 35.3% from 2000 to 42.15% and 38.44% respectively, according to the data of 2000. This shows that the market of women's shoes has been concentrated, and the market share of the top ten brands is expanding. The top three companies in the industry are BELLE, Daphne and Saturday (002291). Sales growth in the past 3-5 years is faster than the industry average.

　 Third, brand home textiles: in the early stage of brand consumption, leading brands grow rapidly.

Home textile is at the initial stage of brand consumption, and the industry is growing very fast. It is a promising variety in the medium and long term of CICC. Industry growth is fast, brand size is small, business management is more mature. Luo Lai, fuanna (002327), Meng Jie have completed the spring and summer new product order meeting next year, an increase of more than 50% over the same period. At present, the market forecasts that the performance of three companies will grow by about 40% next year. At the same time, the current valuation is still relatively reasonable. In 2011, the P / E ratio is about 28-34 times, and the home textile industry will develop rapidly in the next 3-5 years.

　　 Fourth, outdoor equipment: explosive growth and broad domestic market space.

The outdoor sports industry is in the first stage of the three stage development model of garment industry. Although the scale of the market is small and less than ten billion, the annual growth rate is more than 40%, and it is expected to remain in the next 3-5 years. The development of consumption habits is the fundamental driving force for the growth of the market, which is in line with the trend of consumption upgrading. Outdoor consumption is just beginning after exceeding ordinary sports goods. According to CICC analysis, the top three brands of Columbia, The North Face and 300005 of the domestic outdoor industry are smaller in scale, less than 1000 stores, and the scale of revenue is not one billion. Driven by the rapid development of the industry, the concentration of the industry has increased. The growth rate of the leading brands' income can reach over 50%, and explosive growth is achieved.

　 Fifthly, youth casual wear: similar to the development mode of fast moving consumer goods.

Youth casual wear consumption is different from other clothing categories, more similar to the fast moving consumer goods mode, to win volume. Consumer attention usually focuses on three points: fashion, quality and price. Such as Mei Bang dress (002269) and search special (002503) are all domestic low-end casual wear brand, located in the 18-30 year old young customer group, the channel sinking to two or three line and below three line cities, can benefit from the middle and low income class income promotion, open shop space is broad. The market expects two companies to increase profits by more than 50% next year, and is expected to become the fastest growing company in the industry.