Forecast 2011 China'S Industrial Development

In 2010, China's economy has gone through an extraordinary year. Steel, textiles, real estate, automobiles, household appliances, nonferrous metals, coal and oil have been quite unpeaceful.

For iron and steel industry, merger and reorganization, elimination of backwardness, industry Access has become the key word for the development of the industry. The output value of enterprises in the textile industry exceeded 4 trillion yuan in 2010, and the profit increased by 40%. However, behind such a high growth, there are many hidden worries such as raw materials and labor prices rising. The land, credit, market, currency and multi pronged pattern will push the macro-control of the real estate industry in 2010 to an unprecedented level. Under the influence of the multiple effects of encouraging consumption policies, such as the purchase of tax preferences, the replacement of old cars, the car going to the countryside, the energy saving and subsidized products, etc., last year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 18 million vehicles, creating a new global historical high. In 2011, what opportunities and challenges will these industries face? How to deal with them has become a problem of great concern to the society. This issue is featured in this report for readers.

Rising costs, rising output and reduced profits

Iron and steel industry is in a difficult position in 2011

Output has continued to grow, but profit margins have been declining, reflecting the operating difficulties of China's steel industry. 1, 23, the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that in 2010, China's crude steel output nearly 6.27 million tons, an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year, a new record high.

With the increase in output, the profitability of the steel industry is the lowest in the domestic industry.

China Iron and Steel Industry Association believes that along with the macro economic policy Turning to focus on structural adjustment, transformation and steady growth, as well as the unstable and uncertain factors of the world economic recovery, China's economic growth rate will slow down in 2011, the demand for steel industry will decline, and the price of raw materials will be strong. In the overall steel market is still in the situation of supply exceeding demand, the profit margins of enterprises will be further squeezed.

China's economy has been developing steadily, and the demand for steel has kept growing. In 2011, China will implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, accelerate economic restructuring and change the mode of economic growth, consolidate and expand the response to the impact of the international financial crisis, and maintain stable and healthy economic development. In 2011, the state will increase the construction of affordable housing projects to speed up the transformation of shanty towns and rural dilapidated houses. The construction of affordable housing projects in China will reach 10 million units, an increase of 72.4% over the same period last year. The state will also invest a lot of money in rural construction such as irrigation and water conservancy facilities. Renewable energy, environmental protection industry, railways and urban subway construction will also usher in the peak of construction.

The China Iron and Steel Association believes that, in general, 2011 market demand Still more vigorous. Due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, the market will enter the winter break. Before the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for steel will drop. The price of steel will run smoothly. After the Spring Festival, the demand for steel will rise and the price of steel will rise upward.

The international trade environment is not optimistic, and the export of steel is more difficult. According to the latest statistics from the customs, China exported 42 million 560 thousand tons of steel products in 2010, an increase of 73% over the same period last year. Imports of 16 million 430 thousand tons, down 6.8% from the same period last year, and 618 million 630 thousand tons of iron ore imports, down 1.4% from the same period last year.

China Iron and Steel Industry Association believes that China's steel export environment is not optimistic in 2011. According to the "world economic outlook" released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October last year, Global trade growth in 2011 will decline from 11.4% in 2010 to 7%, while the United Nations is expected to decline from 10.5% in 2010 to 6.6%. In 2010, China's exports of steel to Korea, India and ASEAN accounted for 48.2% of all steel exports. Due to the new steel production capacity of 15 million tons in Korea, China's exports to Korea and other countries will be reduced. By the impact of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy such as the United States and Japan, the appreciation of RMB will increase, and the export cost of iron and steel enterprises will further rise.

The state strictly controls "two high and one capital" products, expanding exports and international trade protectionism restrictions on China's exports, making China's steel exports difficult this year, which is not conducive to the balance of supply and demand in the domestic market.

A slight increase in steel inventories, and the steel market is still a situation of oversupply. By the end of 12 2010, the total stock of 5 kinds of steel products in the 26 main steel markets in the country totaled 13 million 240 thousand tons, a rise of 180 thousand tons, an increase of 1.36%, the first rise after a decline of 6 consecutive months. The overall level of social inventory increased by 7.43% over the same period last year. Due to the cold weather and approaching the Spring Festival, construction projects have been closed down, resulting in an increase in lumber inventories, 4.75% and 19% of steel and wire stock respectively, while plate stocks continued to decline, with the inventory of hot rolled stocks falling by 3.95%, and the stocks of medium plate and cold rolled sheet decreased by 0.36% and 0.34% respectively. Overall, steel stocks remain high, and the steel market is still in a state of oversupply.

The price of raw materials continues to rise, pushing the production costs of steel enterprises to continue to rise. The US launched the second round of "quantitative easing" monetary policy, resulting in the continued depreciation of the US dollar. The prices of international commodity oil, iron ore, coking coal and scrap steel, which were denominated in US dollars, rose sharply, and the iron and steel enterprises were faced with tremendous upward pressure on cost. In addition, prices of coal, electricity, refined oil and transportation have also risen significantly. Energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control will increase costs and expenses, taxes, capital and labor costs will also increase. Generally speaking, the iron and steel industry will continue to run in a high cost operation section in 2011, and will still face the operation pattern of "high cost, high price and low efficiency".

The China Iron and Steel Association pointed out that the late market needs to focus on 3 main issues:

First, this year is the beginning of 12th Five-Year. The central government takes the transformation of the mode of economic development as the main line and strictly controls new projects, which will restrain the demand of steel to a certain extent. In 2010, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in China was 23.8%, down 6.2 percentage points from the previous year. Excluding price factors, the actual growth rate is only 19.5%. Due to the sharp decline in fixed assets investment and new construction projects, the demand for steel products, especially construction materials, will be greatly affected.

Two, in order to control inflation expectations, the central fixed rate monetary policy in 2011 shifted from "moderately loose" to "moderate". Following the 6 successive increase in the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions last year, the central bank again raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points in January 20th this year, which is the fourth increase in the central bank in the past 3 months, and the market liquidity will be reduced.

Three, the iron and steel industry has entered a stage of high cost development. Under the situation that the steel market is still oversupply, the growth of downstream demand has slowed down, and the profit margins of enterprises have been further squeezed. Iron and steel enterprises are facing tremendous pressure of rising costs.

The 2010 China real estate market report says -

2011 housing prices remain upward pressure

In January 25th, the REICO studio of the National Federation of industry and commerce real estate issued the 2010 China real estate market report. The report believes that the real estate market prices in 2011 still have some upward pressure. Under such circumstances, the policy environment of the real estate market in 2011, especially in the first half of the year, will remain very severe. The policy objective of stabilizing prices will require that we continue to control the rise in house prices and curb the speculative demand of housing investment.

The report pointed out that the pressure of rising housing prices is due to: on the one hand, at the end of 2010, real estate development enterprises still had plenty of capital. At the end of the year, the ratio of real estate development enterprises' capital sources and real estate development investment was about 1.83, which was unchanged from the end of 2009. From the perspective of financial pressure, the real estate development enterprises in the short term are not motivated to take the initiative to reduce prices. On the other hand, although interest rates have risen two times at the end of 2010, the interest rate level is still at a low level. The negative interest rate situation still exists, and the market's expectations for future inflation remain high, and there is a certain upward pressure on housing prices.

The report maintained the view that the real estate market was basically stable in 2011. The report predicts that from the supply side, the new commercial housing starts in 2010 will start to form market supply from the first half of 2011, and the supply of the real estate market will increase considerably. From the perspective of demand, the economic growth rate declined in 2011. In the first half of this year, inflation expectations continued, the policy environment was severe, the inflation pressure in the second half of the year was reduced, and the policy continued to tighten up the possibility of reduction. With the increase of the market supply, it is estimated that the real estate market demand will continue to increase slightly in 2011.

The report predicts that housing prices will remain basically stable in 2011. Under the policy of "stabilizing prices", the phenomenon of price fluctuations will not be ruled out for a few months.

The report stresses that the construction of affordable housing will have a greater impact on investment growth and housing supply structure.

At present, urban affordable housing includes low rent housing, affordable housing, public rental housing, limited price housing, urban shanty towns transformation, shanty towns transformation and dilapidated housing reconstruction in coal mines, forest areas and reclamation areas. Accelerating the transformation of shanty towns in 2009 has become one of the countermeasures to deal with the international financial crisis. The central government has increased support for low rent housing and shanty towns transformation. In 2009, the urban affordable housing completed about 2 million 500 thousand units, accounting for 28% of the total number of completed urban residences in that year. The completion area of urban affordable housing was about 150 million square meters, accounting for 20% of the total urban residential area completed in that year. In 2010, 5 million 800 thousand new affordable housing projects were newly launched, and 3 million 700 thousand new urban housing units will be added by the end of the year, accounting for 35% of the total number of completed urban residences in that year. The newly built affordable housing will be completed at an area of about 200 million square meters, accounting for 25% of the total urban residential area completed in that year.

In 2010, the completion of investment in affordable housing was about 840 billion yuan. The increase in investment in real estate development increased by about 5 percentage points, that is, in 2010, the growth rate of 33% of real estate development investment was 5%, and that of commercial housing was 28%.

According to the spirit of the central economic work conference, we should accelerate the construction of housing security system in 2011, strengthen the government's responsibility, mobilize all sectors of society, increase the construction of affordable housing projects, accelerate the transformation of shanty towns and rural dilapidated houses, vigorously develop public rental housing, alleviate the difficulties encountered by the masses in housing, and gradually form affordable housing in line with the national conditions. System and commercial housing system. {page_ Break}

In 2011, 10 million new affordable housing projects were planned and 6 million new towns and 360 million square meters were expected to be built by the end of the year. It is estimated that the total investment of affordable housing in 2011 will be about 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan, which will boost investment in real estate development by about 10 percentage points, and boost GDP growth by about 1 percentage points.

According to the report, because affordable housing is mainly based on shanty towns and public rental housing, the construction of affordable housing in 2011 will not create an obvious "extrusion" effect on the demand of commercial housing market. Instead, in the settlement of housing difficulties for urban residents, affordable housing construction will become a useful supplement to the commodity housing market.

Analysis and prediction of China's industry development in 2011

Automobile and other 6 industries will enter a boom period.

In January 22nd, a prediction report was released jointly by the Chinese Academy of Sciences prediction science research center and the China economic network, and the main indicators of China's economy in 2011 were forecasted. According to the report, in 2011, 6 industries, including automobiles, household appliances, nonferrous metals, steel, coal and petroleum, will enter the boom period of industries in turn. Among them, as a leading indicator of the macro-economy, the auto industry boom will maintain a slight upward trend since the fourth quarter of 2010 in the first half of 2011. The household appliance industry will follow closely, and enter the boom period in the first quarter of 2011; the nonferrous metal industry boom is likely to have an inflection point at the end of the first quarter of 2011, followed by a steady upward trend. In the first half of 2011, the steel, oil and coal industries will continue to maintain a downward trend. In the second half of this year, China will gradually enter the economic upturn with the growth of China's economy.

The automotive industry will shift from rapid growth to steady growth. The report believes that the first half of 2011 automotive industry boom will maintain a slight rise since the fourth quarter of 2010. However, considering the tightening of vehicle consumption policy in 2011 and the moderation of monetary policy from moderate easing to steady, the industry's economic rebound has been limited throughout the whole year. Forecasts show that sales volume will shift from rapid growth to steady growth in 2011. It is estimated that vehicle sales in China will reach 20 million in the whole year, up by 11% over the previous year.

The appliance industry will maintain an appropriate growth rate, and the industry boom in the first quarter of 2011 will be on the upward stage. According to the report, under the combined action of macroeconomic growth, national policies to promote the sale of household electrical appliances and the introduction of the "12th Five-Year plan" of household appliances, the household electrical appliance industry will maintain an appropriate growth rate in 2011, and the boom is still at a high level. The sales of home appliances to the countryside and trade in new products will continue to grow at a high speed, and the rural market will still have great potential.

Nonferrous metals industry boom will show a downward trend, then stabilize and rebound trend, the first quarter of 2011, the business will rebound. According to the report, influenced by factors such as supply and demand, speculation and other factors, the price of non-ferrous metals increased significantly in 2011.

The trend of the steel industry will decline first and then slightly oscillate upward. The second half of this year will enter a boom period. The report holds that, considering that China's economy may return to the recovery channel in the second half of 2011, the steel industry boom is expected to maintain a downward trend in the first half of 2011, and will enter a boom period in the second half of the year. Forecast shows that in 2011, China's finished steel output will continue to rise, but the growth rate has dropped slightly compared with 2010.

The prosperity of the coal industry will continue to decline in the first half of 2011, and the industry boom in the second half of this year is expected to rebound steadily. The report believes that according to the synthetic index and economic trend analysis, the coal industry boom will continue to decline in the first half of 2011. Considering that the economy may return to recovery channel in the second half of 2011, the coal industry boom in the second half of this year is expected to rebound steadily.

The oil industry boom will continue to decline in the first half of 2011, and the second half is likely to go upstream. According to the report, according to the analysis of the synthetic index trend, the oil industry boom in the first half of 2011 will probably continue to decline. Then, with the recovery of China's economic boom and the upward trend of downstream industries, the oil industry is expected to get out of the trough in the second half of 2011 and enter the recovery expansion period.

In addition, the report also forecasts China's import and export situation. The report holds that China's foreign trade will maintain a steady growth in 2011, but the growth rate will decline significantly compared with 2010. On the whole, imports are better than exports, and the trade surplus is basically the same as in 2010. It is estimated that in 2011, China's total import and export volume was about 36091 billion US dollars, up 21.4% over the same period last year, of which exports amounted to about 18935 billion US dollars, an increase of 20% over the same period last year, with an import volume of about 17156 billion US dollars, up 23% over the same period last year.

The report points out that in 2011, China's imports and exports faced strong uncertainties. We should pay special attention to the following aspects: import and export: first, the world economy in 2011 was at a moderate growth stage. However, due to the withdrawal of large-scale economic stimulus plan, there still exists some risks. World economic growth in 2011 is expected to be lower than the 2010 growth rate of about 4.2%. This will have an impact on China's exports in 2011. Secondly, in 2011, China's GDP will continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate of about 9.8%. The "12th Five-Year" business plan puts forward domestic demand and import double expansion, and the implementation of the import promotion policy will effectively promote China's imports. Third, in 2010, China's import prices were substantially higher, export prices rebounded slowly, and the terms of trade deteriorated significantly. In 2011, international commodities are facing higher upward pressure. The trend of China's import price rise is likely to continue. China's terms of trade may continue to deteriorate, which will have direct and indirect effects on the trade surplus. Fourth, the impact of RMB appreciation pressure and trade friction on import and export can not be ignored. But on the whole, China's import and export development is still more opportunities than challenges.

Prices of raw materials and labor continue to rise.

Textile industry bid farewell to low cost Era

According to the preliminary estimate of China Textile Industry Association, the output value of China's textile enterprises above Designated Size exceeded 4 trillion yuan in 2010, and the export volume exceeded 200 billion US dollars. The profit exceeded 200 billion yuan and the profit increased 40%.

But behind this high growth, there are many worries. Looking forward to 2011, the price increase of raw materials and labor is a foregone conclusion, and the textile industry will be in the era of pain and low cost.

Industry profitability continues to improve

In the analysis of China's textile industry economic operation held recently, the China Textile Industry Association held that in 2010, the output value of China's textile industry increased significantly, the linkage between production and marketing was steady, and the contribution of added value increased steadily; the output of main products increased significantly, all of which reached a record high. The total investment continued to grow, the proportion of clothing industry investment increased significantly, the industry moved faster and faster to the central and western regions, exports continued to grow, the international market share continued to rise, the international competitiveness was further enhanced, the domestic demand market remained strong, the contribution of domestic industry continued to increase, the quality of the operation of the industry increased steadily, and the profitability continued to improve.

The conference analyzed in detail the specific performance and role of investment, consumption and export "three carriages" in 2010 and 11th Five-Year.

First, the total investment continues to rise. In 2010, the total investment of the whole industry reached 400 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 1.51 times compared with 2005, and an average annual increase of 20.19% during the 11th Five-Year period. The number of new projects has reached 8388, an increase of 75.66% over 2005 and an annual increase of 11.93% over the period of 11th Five-Year.

Second, textile exports continue to grow. In 2010, the total export volume of the textile industry was 206 billion 500 million US dollars, an increase of 75.72% over 2005, and the average annual growth rate was 11.93% in 11th Five-Year. At the same time, textile export competitiveness continued to improve.

Thirdly, the supporting role of the domestic market is obvious. During the "11th Five-Year" period, the growth rate of domestic textile output continued to be higher than the year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value. Retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles have been higher than the retail level of the whole society. The retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 24.8% in 2010, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than that of the whole society in the same period.

The conference held that the sustained growth of the textile industry is also reflected in the growth of output value, output of major products and profitability of the industry.

Output value continues to grow. In 2010, the gross output value of textile industry reached 47650 billion yuan, an increase of 1.31 times compared with 2005, and the average growth rate was 18.22% during 11th Five-Year. As sales value and industrial output increase similar, from 2005 to 2010, textile production and marketing linkage has been stable between 97% and 98%.

The output of main products continued to grow. In 2010, domestic chemical fiber production reached 31 million tons, an increase of 86.21% over 2005, and an average annual growth rate of 13.24% in 11th Five-Year. The yarn output reached 27 million 300 thousand tons, an increase of 88.21% over 2005, and an average annual growth rate of 13.48% during the 11th Five-Year period. The cloth output reached 79 billion meters, an increase of 63.09% over 2005, and the average annual growth rate was 10.28% during the "11th Five-Year" period.

The profitability of the industry has increased markedly. In 2010, the profit rate and total assets contribution rate of textile industry were 5.44% and 13.89% respectively, up 1.91 and 4.72 percentage points respectively compared with 2005.

At the same time, the trend of industrial transfer to the central and western regions is obvious. In the 1~11 month of 2010, the proportion of textile investment in the eastern region accounted for 52.93% of the total industry investment, which was 21.04 percentage points lower than that in 2005. The central and western regions increased by 17.96 or 3.08 percentage points respectively.

The meeting pointed out that during the "11th Five-Year" period, with the further development of economic globalization, China's textile industry has grasped the important historical opportunities of globalization, and the international competitiveness has been brought into full play. The level of marketization development of the industry has also been further improved, and its relationship with the international market has become increasingly close. In 2010, industry exports recovered synchronously with the international market, and achieved rapid growth on the low base. At the same time, the development of emerging economies has accelerated significantly, and its contribution to world economic growth has become increasingly prominent, providing new market space for China's textile industry export.

The market environment will be more complicated.

In the market environment of 2010, it is not easy for China's textile industry to achieve such a success.

First of all, excess liquidity has led to capital flows to commodity markets. Price rises have spread to all raw materials in the textile industry. The price of natural fibers represented by cotton has set a record. {page_ Break}

"The price rise of raw materials in 2010 has made the enterprises that master the upstream resources earn a lot of money, but it has also made a wake-up call for the textile industry. We must speed up the development of a wide range of cotton fiber substitution products to fill the gap of raw materials and balance the supply and demand relationship. Sun Ruizhe, vice president of China Textile Industry Association, said.

Second, the rise in labour prices has become the norm. In 2010, the remuneration and welfare of the textile industry increased by more than 10%, and the wage increase in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta reached 20%.

"This year's central economic work conference stressed that we should focus on improving the consumption capacity of residents, which needs to increase the income of labourers. Then, the upward trend of labor prices is irreversible. Sun Ruizhe said that as a labor-intensive livelihood industry, the textile industry's wage increase is also the general trend of income distribution reform.

In the past, a strong core competitiveness of China's textile industry was low factor cost. But in 2010, the hard constraints of energy saving and emission reduction, labor price growth, and abnormal fluctuations in raw material prices such as cotton and chemical fiber told us that China's textile industry has bid farewell to the era of low cost, and the market environment will be more complex, so we must accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading. Sun Ruizhe bluntly said.

The analysis of China's textile industry's economic operation shows the prospect of China's textile industry in 2011, and analyzes the favorable and unfavorable factors. According to the meeting, the global economy is still in the recovery stage, but due to the high unemployment rate of developed countries and the high inflation of emerging economies, the global economic growth rate will slow down in 2011, and the domestic economic growth will show a downward trend, mainly due to the drop in the growth rate of fixed asset investment. From the macro point of view, fiscal policy and monetary policy in 2011 will be "loose and tight". Fiscal policy is mainly to adjust the structure, support more people's livelihood and social security system construction; monetary policy will be based on stability; RMB will maintain a slow appreciation trend against the US dollar; textile raw materials such as cotton and chemical fiber will continue to operate at a high level.